Editor’s Note: All my graphics going forward will come directly from Stat Soldier. Go check it out by clicking here.
It is that time of year again…October baseball.
Postseason baseball is one of the most electric events to happen in all of sports. Anyone can get hot; anyone can win. Typically, all the teams that make the baseball postseason are threats, which I can’t say for all the other Big-4 US Sports. The MLB playoffs are currently the hardest to qualify for across all Big-4 US sports (MLB, NFL, NHL, & NBA).
Big-4 US Sport Teams To Make Postseason:
NBA → 16 of 30 Teams (53.3%)
NHL → 16 of 32 Teams (50%)
NFL → 14 of 32 Teams (43.8%)
MLB → 12 of 30 Teams (40%)
Numbers don’t lie; only teams that have a real chance in October make the postseason. I understand the MLB has the occasional bad team slip through the cracks; look at the American League West this year. Whoever wins the division will have a sub .500 record, which is pitiful.
MLB's higher standards for postseason play are what make these October moments so special. You can make a case for any team to win a World Series as easily as you can make one for them to lose in the postseason.
That is exactly what I am doing here today. Check out my thoughts on why each team can bring home the coveted World Series trophy or go home early.
National League
1) Milwaukee Brewers (103-59)
The Case For: The Brewers simply have no glaring weaknesses. They are ranked 2nd in ERA (3.51), 2nd in Saves (54), 1st in Wins (102), 4th in WHIP (1.18), 2nd in Average (.258), 1st in Hits (1,412), 2nd in Runs (826), 1st in OBP (.341), 2nd in BB (667), 8th in TB (2,202), and 2nd in RBI (782). How many different categories is this team going to be elite in before we acknowledge that this is the best-rounded team in baseball this season
The Case Against: If I had to make a case against the Brewers, it would be the fact that they don’t hit the long ball. T-28th overall in Team HR (153), this could be a fatal flaw come postseason play. The pitching is just so good in October that small-ball doesn’t work, and a team might rely on a lucky swing to put up some runs.
2) Los Angeles Dodgers (100-62)
The Case For: This team has experience. This team has elite talent at almost every position. This team also has the best player in the world (history of the game in my opinion). Very hard to make a “good” case against Los Angeles from three-peating.
The Case Against: Three in a row is just statistically improbable. The Yankees and Athletics are the only two franchises to 3-peat in MLB history. The Yankees won four straight from 1936–1939, five straight from 1949–1953 (the MLB record), and three straight from 1998–2000. Oakland won three straight from 1972–1974. Don’t get me wrong, I can easily see the Dodgers hoisting the trophy for a third straight year.
3) Atlanta Braves (94-68)
The Case For: The Braves are rather similar to the Brewers. Neither team has the firepower of the Dodgers, but they are well-rounded all across the diamond. They have their ace in Chris Sale, former MVP Ronald Acuna Jr., and an elite closer in Raisel Iglesias. This team is so much more than that, though; the rotation may not have the flashiest names, but they get the job done. The lineup has contributions from 7-8 different hitters, and the bullpen is able to sustain leads.
The Case Against: Tyler Mahle is their #2 starter right now. One could argue for Grant Holmes or Bryce Elder, but that is my point. There is no clear-cut guy I would feel confident in to go get me a win in Game 2 of a playoff series right now.
4) San Diego Padres (91-71)
The Case For: The sky is the limit with this team. AJ Preller has always been aggressive in signing and trading for star power when it becomes available on the market. Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Ty France, and Jackson Merrill can light up the scoreboard. The bullpen is one of the best in the league and led by arguably the best closer in baseball, Mason Miller.
The Case Against: Back-end of the rotation. In a short series, I think the Padres could fight off anyone. Going head-to-head in a 5-game or 7-game series, I would assume they would have trouble matching up with teams like Los Angeles or Philadelphia who have multiple trusted starters.
5) Chicago Cubs (89-73)
The Case For: The offense is loaded. Currently 1st in Runs (844) and Total Bases (2,362). This is the best offense in baseball. Funny enough, this is also the top defense in baseball. They are ranked 1st in Field Percentage (.990). Oh, and I forgot to mention this guy they have named Pete Crow-Armstrong who is going to win the MVP in the National League this year. He is pretty good at baseball.
The Case Against: Their starting pitching will not be able to get the job done. Pitching overall will be an issue for Chicago, but the rotation just has had so many injuries that it will take a miracle for the Cubs to pull it off without those missing arms.
6) Philadelphia Phillies (88-74)
The Case For: I feel like the Phillies have either been the hot pick or dark horse candidate to win the World Series for the last several years. They have a stacked lineup, the rotation has a legit 1-2-3 knockout punch with Sanchez, Luzardo, and Wheeler, and an All-Star closer in Jhoan Duran.
The Case Against: The lineup can feel a bit top-heavy at times, and the bullpen depth isn’t there for me. A bullpen that has a 4.36 ERA doesn’t scream great insurance policy. That is the 22nd-ranked pen in the league. I’m sorry, Philly fans, but this is not a good situation for a deep playoff run.
American League
1) Tampa Bay Rays (98-64)
The Case For: The Rays have been the clear-cut best team in the American League all season long. I understand that people will read that and think that the American League is down this year, but winning 98 games is no small feat. Not to mention two other teams in their division are also in the playoffs; they manhandled the division and should be respected as the top team in the American League even without the typical star power that some of these contenders possess.
The Case Against: Similar to the Brewers formula, this is a small-ball team. Ranked 22nd overall (167) in team home runs, they might not have the big swings in them to win a title. That being said, Junior Caminero is on the Rays, and he has hit 42 bombs this season.
2) Cleveland Guardians (85-77)
The Case For: The Guardians have a very good 1-2-3 punch leading the rotation. Definitely not the best in the league, but Tanner Bibee (4.36 ERA), Parker Messick (2.56 ERA), and Gavin Williams (3.76 ERA) are slept on. Not to mention Joey Cantillo (3.63 ERA) and Slade Cecconi (4.91 ERA) are solid options in the back end of the rotation. The Guardians are just good at pitching overall, to be honest. Seven hitters have north of 12 bombs as well, so there is some pop up and down this lineup.
The Case Against: Might be a lazy take (I am not spending a ton of time on the Guardians), but they need more talent to be considered “serious” contenders. Go get J-Ram, another star hitter for next year, as this team looks like it will be good for a little bit.
3) Houston Astros (81-81)
The Case For: I mean, it’s Houston. Players like Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez will always command respect from a Yankees fan such as myself. Listen, I get that 81-81 is nothing to call home to Mom about, but they are now in the dance. They have an ace in Hunter Brown. They have one of the best closers in baseball who has been pretty much dominant since 2019 and capable hitters. Anything can happen.
The Case Against: They limped into the playoffs, and there are too many holes in the rotation to put up a fight against a playoff team.
4) New York Yankees (93-68)
The Case For: If you want the short version → they have a loaded lineup with a keyword “healthy” Judge. The rotation is gross, and they have a lockdown closer in Bednar. If you are a Yankee fan, check out my fair yet optimistic view here.
The Case Against: The bullpen is thin, very thin. Aaron Judge’s health. If he can’t go, this team is cooked.
5) Boston Red Sox (87-75)
The Case For: Boston can be scary. If I weren’t a Yankees fan, I’d say they could be the team I pick to represent the American League in the World Series. But I am a Yankees fan, so I am taking the boys from the Bronx. That being said, Boston can bang with anyone. Roman Anthony has missed a bunch of time this year, but he is back and hitting .368 over the last week. Why not?
The Case Against: Honestly, it just doesn’t feel like Boston’s year to me. They are inconsistent, and with Garrett Crochet still out, I don’t like it as a betting man. He can still return for the playoffs, but when?
6) Chicago White Sox (84-78)
The Case For: +56 positive Run Differential in the regular season. This team is young and exciting but……
The Case Against: Overall inexperience. I think the South Side fans are just happy to be here. The White Sox have a fun little rotation, but I would tend to think they would struggle with teams like Tampa, New York, and Boston.
Prediction: The New York Yankees
Homer pick, I know. I am basing this on the fact that I think the Dodgers will get knocked out by someone along the way before facing the Yankees.
My thought process is that if the Yankees can face anyone but the Dodgers, they will have the upper hand in talent compared to any of the other National League teams. This is also assuming that Judge and Stanton come back and make an impact!