After defeating the Red Sox by a score of 4-0 in a do-or-die Game 3 matchup in the AL Wild Card in the Bronx on Thursday, the New York Yankees are slated to face the Toronto Blue Jays in the American League Divisional Series starting Saturday. This will be the first time in MLB history that the Blue Jays and Yankees will face off in an MLB postseason series.
Game 1 will be played in Toronto at 4:08 EST with an expected pitching matchup of Luis Gil vs. Shane Bieber. Both pitchers are relatively inexperienced when it comes to pitching in the postseason, combining for only 5 appearances and 26 innings between the two of them. Gil pitched twice in the Yankees’ 2024 run to the World Series and experienced moderate success at best. His first appearance came against the Cleveland Guardians in the ALCS, where he pitched 4.0 innings and gave up 3 hits, 3 walks, and 2 earned runs. A week and a half after that start, Gil faced the Dodgers in game 4 of the World Series, where he surrendered 5 hits, 2 home runs, 2 walks, and 5 earned runs. By contrast, Bieber has pitched 3 times in the postseason, once in 2020, where he surrendered 7 ER in 4.1 IP, and twice in 2022, where he excelled, posting a 2.03 ERA and striking out 15 batters in 13.1 IP. This game is crucial for both teams because the winner of Game 1 in the AL/NLDS wins the series approximately 70% of the time.
The rest of the expected starting pitching matchups for the ALDS are as follows:
Game 2: Sunday, October 5th, at New York - Max Fried vs. Kevin Gausman
Game 3: Tuesday, October 7th, at New York - Carlos Rodon vs. Max Scherzer
Game 4 (if necessary): Wednesday, October 8th, at Toronto - Cam Schlittler vs. Chris Bassitt
Game 5 (if necessary): Friday, October 10th, at Toronto - Max Fried vs. Shane Bieber
During the 2025 regular season, games between the Yankees and Blue Jays were relatively high-scoring. On average, during their 13 matchups in the regular season, 9.9 runs were scored and 2.4 home runs were hit. The Blue Jays ultimately won the season series against the Yankees this year, winning 8 out of their 13 matchups, including a four-game series sweep in Toronto during the first week of July, which gave Toronto home-field advantage in this 5-game series (both teams had the same overall record of 94-68).
This is certain to be an exciting series to watch between two divisional rivals who were tied in the regular season for most wins in the American League and had the 3rd most wins in all of Major League Baseball. Despite the Blue Jays winning the regular season series against the Yankees, I believe the Yankees will ultimately win this ALDS matchup and advance to the ALCS to play either the Detroit Tigers or Seattle Mariners for a chance to win the American League Pennant. In my opinion, the Yankees have a slight advantage in their starting rotation and a significant advantage in their bullpen compared to Toronto. Additionally, I tend to favor the team that enters the series after playing in and winning the Wild Card round, as compared to the team that earned the bye. The sportsbooks agree with my sentiment, as the Yankees are currently listed at -150 to win the series, while the Blue Jays’ odds are around +135. I predict that the Yankees will win game 1 in Toronto on Saturday and go on to win the series in four games.
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