Editors Note: I focus a lot on contracts and stats from Fenway Park here. I was going to dive into WAR/162 and average out stats per season and whatnot, but frankly, it leans Vladdy anyway, and I'm not too fond of hypotheticals. So, I avoid that for the most part.
As the deadline approaches, I wanted to put together some fun trade scenarios. One that kept popping into my head, partly because I did it in MLB The Show, was Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for Triston Casas.
This would not be a straight-up trade and would likely include some prospects from the Red Sox side and a pitcher from the Blue Jays. I have posted about it before and mentioned it on the podcast with Brett and Sam. I always got a few jeers from people, but nothing like yesterday.
I noticed that Vladdy was trending in the algorithm when I posted about some deadline predictions earlier in the day. Knowing that X likes video content, I got a clip from Baseball Savant and put up the post below.
The attacks came swift.
Even former All-Star Eric Hosmer got in on the action.
Very mean, but notice a trend? There are no numbers or analytics to back it up outside the years of control. My first thought was to get Vladdy’s stats from his time in the Buffalo Stadium and see how similar the dimensions are to Fenway Park. Then I realized that’s dumb; let me get his stats from Fenway Park…. They are pretty damn good.
For reference, this is over a 40-game span. I decided to compare Triston Casas’ career numbers from Fenway Park. Frankly, it’s embarrassing.
So, yeah, I would take Vladdy Jr. over Casas, and I am willing to bet that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would want to sign long-term in Boston. Not only because of the friendliness of Fenway Park but also because of the chance to play with his countrymen, Rafel Devers and Brayan Bello. Not to mention his relationship with David Ortiz.
Contract/Health
Look, I am well aware that Triston Casas has more team control than Vladdy. However, I want a player who can stay on the field and produce for the team. Vladdy has never been on the IL in his career. He missed a total of eight games from 2020-2023. So far, in 2024, he has missed a whopping one game. Also, the Red Sox need a big right-handed bat. This solves that issue.
Of course, the control of Casas until 2028 is enormous, and going and getting Vladdy and expecting him to sign is a considerable risk. But it is one that I would be willing to take. Casas has already turned down at least one contract extension from the Red Sox. Let’s say he decides to turn down their offers until 2028 to get a bag; he would be 29 years old when that contract starts.
If the Red Sox could get Vladdy Jr to sign an extension, his contract would kick in at exactly 27 years old. Those two years are essential when looking at a long-term contract. MLB players, on average, begin to regress at 30 years old. That is not to say that either Casas or Guerrero won’t be exceptions to that rule, but for argument's sake, if they do begin to regress, you are getting more value from the Guerrero contract than the Casas one.
Lastly, don’t rule out the fact that Guerrero wants to play with Devers and Bello. There is a lot of comfort in that, of which there is no analysis to evaluate.
Defense
The last thing I will discuss is their defensive metrics. This was mentioned quite a lot in the comments. It reminded me of all the trolls saying Trout is just a better defender than the Judge; a quick Google search would show the opposite, by the way.
Below is my rebuttal to one of the commenters. My first reaction when seeing someone with those weird laser eyes should have been to stay away, but I engaged. To no surprise, his rebuttal had nothing to do with the numbers I posted.
Here Sammy ( he will probably/hopefully never read this.) I will do some simple math for you.
761/181= 4.2
4.2x -1.7 = -7.14
So, let us see what number is worse. -4.7 or -7.14?
Both are terrible, but Casas “analytically” is a worse defender than Guerrero Jr.
Final Thoughts
It pains me to write a blog that goes against a Red Sox player, but it had to be done. I am first and foremost a Red Sox fan, and I want what is best for the team that I root for. To me, that would be Vladimir Guerrero Jr. playing at Fenway Park. What started as a post to get some impressions turned into a little battle, but it was fun. I will not hate on Red Sox fans for defending Casas in the comments with little or nothing to back them up. Blind faith in their team is a beautiful thing.
I also thank them for the ad revenue.
-Dean
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This post was inevitable🤣🤣
Very good post Dean! Love how the overvalued first basemen is trying to talk down to you!