Willy Adames' Contract Might Haunt the San Francisco Giants
A Blog by Greg
While still only less than halfway into Willy Adames’ first season with the San Francisco Giants, the massive 7-year, $182 million (including a $22 million signing bonus) that Adames inked with the organization last offseason is already looking like a catastrophic mistake by the front office. Now, it is easy to overreact to the Giants' decision to sign Adames to such a lucrative deal considering he is struggling to keep his batting average over .200 and his OPS+ is an abysmal 75; however, I truly believe that this contract will age poorly in the coming years.
Adames’ stock was at an all-time high following his 2024 season with the Brewers. He finished 10th in NL MVP voting, hitting 32 HRs, stealing a career-high 22 bases (he had never stolen more than 8 in any prior season), batting in 112 runs, and having a 120 OPS+. Unfortunately, Adames has yet to experience that level of success so far in 2025. His 2025 batting average is 47 points below his career average, and his slugging percentage has dropped over 130 points compared to his 3 full seasons with the Brewers. One of the contributing aspects to this early decline is park factors. The Brewers' home stadium, American Family Field, ranks as the 4th most friendly hitting park in terms of home run production. Oracle Park, the home of the Giants, on the other hand, ranks as the 2nd worst hitter-friendly park in terms of home run production and the 2nd worst overall in terms of overall run production. Additionally, Adames’ 21 stolen bases in 2024 seem to look more like a fluke rather than an indication of what's to come. So far in 2025, Adames has only stolen 3 bases and has been caught stealing twice. For comparison, he was only caught stealing 4 times in 161 games last season. While Adames’ hitting and baserunning woes are certainly cause for concern, the aspect of his game that I am most apprehensive about is his fielding.
From 2022 to 2023, Adames was the 4th best defensive shortstop in the MLB according to Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and the 2nd best in terms of Statcast Outs Above Average (OAA). In 2024 he was significantly worse, dropping to the worst qualified shortstop in the league with -16 DRS. So far in 2025, he has been even worse! He still ranks as the worst defensive shortstop; however, his DRS dropped to -24. A shortstop’s defensive ability declining with age is not an abnormal trend; however, considering Willy Adames is only 29 years old, it is troubling how quickly his defensive effectiveness has declined.
If Adames continues to struggle at shortstop, his move to the DH spot seems inevitable. Signing a power-hitting and elite defensive shortstop to a 7-year, $182 million contract is defensible, but having him move out of the field within the first few years of that deal is not. The Giants have some tough decisions ahead of them in the following off-seasons, and sinking a large portion of their budget into Willy Adames last winter may be a decision they are already regretting.