In late 2022, Jacob deGrom signed a 5-year $185,000,000 contract with the Texas Rangers. He was mocked for saying that he signed with them to win a championship. Those cold takes were exposed in the Fall of 2023, when the Rangers did just that.
In 2023, he pitched just 30.1 innings while making $30,000,000. Last season, he got paid $40,000,000 to recover from his second Tommy John surgery and then throw 10.2 innings. His first TJS came in 2010 when he was still in the minors. This season he will make $40,000,000. In 2026, $38,000,000, and $37,000,000 in 2027. In 2028, there is a club option for $20,000,000.
I say all this just to preface one thing. deGrom is a competitor. He is not a “mooch” that is looking to collect a (big) check. His goal this season is to “make as many starts as possible.”
“You sign here to pitch, and I haven’t been able to do that.”
It’s also stated that they want to be smart about him, and not jump to 200-something innings. This is all from the piece below, on MLB.com.
Healthy deGrom ready to 'see what we can do' in 2025
The most important thing to me was that deGrom was already able to return from his injury and spin a few innings at the end of last season. In those 10.2 innings, his fastball was back to 97 mph, and had 17.4 inches of IVB. Which is right on par with his career. He also had a 2.51 xERA on Baseball Savant. I know it’s an extremely small sample size, but it showed me everything I needed to see.
Here is the movement profile from BaseballSavant.
Those three starts were also important to deGrom.
He said this about the three starts at the Ranger’s FanFest: “That way, I could treat it like a normal offseason and not feel like I was in rehab mode the whole time.” So that’s what this offseason has been, you know, normal throwing. Been off the mound already, and everything feels good.”
Those quotes are from OurQuadCities.com.
The above text is all factual information. So now I would like to add my subjective opinion on predicting Jacob deGrom’s 2025.
I don’t think that anybody reading this needs to be convinced that the guy with a career 2.52 ERA, and two Cy Young awards is a good pitcher. So, I won’t be trying to convince you of something that you already know. What I want to do is convince you that deGrom can be healthy in 2025…
But before I do that, I will link these two overlays from
on X to remind you how ridiculous a healthy deGrom was…https://x.com/PitchingNinja/status/1380938331001880579
https://x.com/PitchingNinja/status/1567875496175669249
deGrom and The Rangers Have Nothing to Lose.
The Rangers, in my opinion, are in their last real year of competing for an American League pennant. The roster is getting older. Semien is 34, Eovaldi will be 35, and deGrom is 36. They are also ranked in the bottom third of farm system rankings by most outlets (for what it’s worth). But this 2025 roster is very exciting, and capable of making a playoff run, and the Rangers believe that as well.
Why would they hold deGrom back? He isn’t a Spring Chicken like Shane McClanahan this year, Garrett Crochet last season, and many other young pitchers who have been (rightfully) eased into their returns from injury. He is at the home stretch of his career, and I see him maximizing every last bit of it. So, I don’t see him having a soft launch into action. As stated earlier, he has already thrown some innings back at the MLB level, is having a normal offseason, and feels good.
Even if he doesn’t throw 200 innings, this is a new era of baseball. Since 2021, six of the last eight CY winners threw less than 200 innings. Gerrit Cole and Sandy Alcantara were the two that did put up over 200 innings when they won their awards.
He’ll Be 37. Are You Nuts?
Yeah, I guess I am nuts.
But I am a believer in the two-year window where the surgically repaired elbow following Tommy John surgery is very strong. There has been discourse on this, and some people believe it to be false. Maybe we will get a study on it, or maybe there is one, and I just missed it. I am not afraid of pitchers failing after Tommy John anymore unless they weren’t that good prior. In my opinion, we’re talking about the most dominant pitcher of our modern era.
I probably shouldn’t bring up the best case ever of an older ace returning from TJS, but I will. But are we forgetting that Justin Verlander returned in 2022 at age 39 and won the AL CY Unanimously? deGrom is a more dominant pitcher than Verlander.
We just saw Chris Sale, in his age-35 season, win a unanimous Cy Young in the NL. This is after not being able to stay on the field for a very long time, just like deGrom. I just want people to understand that it isn’t as far-fetched as it seems, and it is possible.
To further cement my age case, here are 10 Cy Young award winners that were older than Jacob deGrom from StatMuse.com.
If you’re initial reaction to that image is “but that list is full of Hall of Famers!” I want to remind you what this blog is about…
(Yes, I know Clemens isn’t in the HoF, but not because of his performance, and Dickey is obviously a unique case).
This is his 2nd TJS. Nick, are you dense?
No, I’m not dense (not entirely).
I am well aware that this is deGrom’s second TJS. There are not a lot of success stories on recovery from a second. But there also aren’t that many cases out there yet. However, a fellow Texas Ranger has had a very successful career following his second TJS. Nathan Eovaldi had his first in High School, and then his second in 2016. Since his return, he’s been healthy for the better part of the past seven years.
Walker Buehler was the latest to return from his second TJS. Buehler was eased into his return and was not his old self. But deGrom had his surgery two months earlier in the year than Buehler. Let’s also not pretend that Buehler’s performance wasn’t showing signs of decline before his injury as well. For what it’s worth, I am also excited about Buehler’s first full year back.
I would count Cole Ragans as a success story, but he had one surgery, and then another surgery to fix the first surgery due to some issue that I do not know. Bad recovery? Surgery mistake? No clue. But if you want to help my argument even more, then sure let’s count him!
Stop Trying to Predict Injuries.
There is no such thing as a pitcher that is a “safe bet” to stay healthy. Yes, deGrom has gotten hurt. A lot. As soon as he started throwing harder, he began to get hurt. I get it. But there is no guarantee that the other guy you are betting on will stay healthy either. Since 2021, 160 MLB pitchers have had UCL-related injuries. That’s not counting any other type of injury.
I would seriously argue that DeGrom is less of an injury risk than a lot of other pitchers. I see it in the sense that he got it out of the way, and now he can let it rip for the rest of his career. Getting hurt and having TJS isn’t a good thing. It’s objectively a bad thing. But in the context of how many pitchers are having UCL injuries in this era, I see it optimistically, as if it were in his past.
Here is a graphic from a great piece on mlb.com regarding UCL injuries. Check it out if you have some extra time. It does talk about other injuries to pitchers as well.
So, if you want a worse pitcher for your fantasy team, or you are betting on a worse pitcher because of their health, just remember you are betting on a worse pitcher. Because nobody is better than a healthy Jacob deGrom.
I Hope I Convinced You.
Unless you are in fantasy leagues with me, if so, then disregard everything I just said.
If you are part of my chalkboard page (nicksMLBpicks) and in my 2025 futures channel, then you got a 20-1 Jacob deGrom AL CY ticket along with me on MGM. If you aren’t in it, then you missed out, and you can get him at 11-1. Then join my Chalkboard so you get the best lines/prices… haha.
In all seriousness, I do love deGrom this year, and if you are a doubter of his ability to be healthy, I hope I can at least move some of you to the middle ground of that opinion. Because the discourse on deGrom on X in very polarizing. I would like to think that I am not completely alone in my optimism for deGrom.
If you made it to the end of this, I’ll once again plug my Futures Channel, and give out a couple of my favorite bets regarding the Rangers:
Rangers o84.5 Wins
Rangers to make the playoffs
Go follow me on X, @ nicksMLBpicks.