Who Should Blue Jays' Fans be Rooting for in Game 5 of the ALDS?
A Blog by Greg
Last night, the Toronto Blue Jays advanced to the ALCS for the first time in almost 10 years after handily defeating the Yankees, on the road, in game 4 of the ALDS. I won’t get into too much of the game, as one of our other writers will be posting a game (and full season Yankee) recap later today. Rather, I want to discuss another ALDS game: a “win or go home” game 5 matchup between the Seattle Mariners and the Detroit Tigers.
The winner of this game will advance to the ALCS to play the Toronto Blue Jays in a 7-game series to decide the AL Pennant winner. Both teams are in quite a drought in terms of ALCS appearances. The Tigers haven’t made the Championship Series since 2013 (where they lost to the Red Sox), and the Mariners haven’t made an ALCS appearance since 2001 (where they lost to the Yankees). Regardless of who wins between the Tigers and Mariners, the Jays will hold home-field advantage since they held the best regular season record in the American League. The question remains: who would the Blue Jays rather face in the ALCS?
The Tigers are led by last year’s AL Cy Young Award winner (and the favorite to win the 2025 AL Cy Young), Tarik Skubal. However, despite having as dominant of an ace as any team could ask for, the rest of the Tigers’ starting rotation and bullpen is rather pedestrian. Detroit’s #2 in their rotation is Jack Flaherty, who struggled in the regular season (89 ERA+, 3.85 FIP, 0.9 WAR), and their #3 is Casey Mize, who was slightly above average in the regular season (107 ERA+) but the team does not seem overly confident in his ability to pitch in the postseason (2 games, 6.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.75 SO/BB). With Skubal scheduled to pitch Game 5 of the ALDS on Friday, it is likely that the Jays won’t have to face him until Game 3 of the ALCS (when the series goes to Detroit). While Toronto’s pitching is not their strong suit, they will have the advantage in Games 1 and 2 if Skubal is unable to pitch. Considering the way the Jays attacked the Yankees’ aces, the Jays’ hitters are likely salivating at the chance to face Flaherty and Mize at home in Toronto.
The Tigers hitters have been rather unimpressive through the postseason as well. Only one batter, Javier Baez, has a batting average over .300, and only two hitters have an OPS greater than .800, Baez and Gleyber Torres. Granted, the Tigers have had the difficult task of facing the dominant Seattle Mariners’ pitching rotation, which I will get into next.
Even without their 2025 All-Star starting pitcher, Bryan Woo (who is dealing with a pectoral injury and was left off the ALDS roster), the Mariners’ pitching rotation is exceptional. Their 2025 postseason sample size is smaller than the Tigers since they did not play in the Wild Card series, but the statistics are impressive nonetheless. Logan Gilbert pitched 6.0 innings, struck out 7, and only surrendered 1 run. Luis Castillo tossed 4.2 innings, surrendering only 1 hit (and 4 BB) and striking out 3 batters. George Kirby was decent in his one ALDS start with 5.0 IP, 8 SO, and only 2 ER allowed. Seattle’s relievers (Matt Brash, Carlos Vargas, and Gabe Speier) have been serviceable, striking out 11 batters and surrendering 7 runs (unearned) in 7.0 IP combined. However, their closer, Andres Munoz, has followed up a spectacular 2025 regular season with a perfect ALDS thus far, appearing in 3 games (4.0 IP) and surrendering no base runners. If Woo can return to the rotation for the ALCS (given the Mariners’ win on Friday), the Mariners’ pitching advantage would be that much greater.
Onto the hitting, the Mariners haven’t been uber effective on offense thus far, but I feel they are in a better position moving forward than the Tigers. AL MVP candidate Cal Raleigh has carried over his regular season success to the postseason, as he is batting .438 with 7 hits, 1 HR, and 4 RBIs. Outside of Raleigh, the lineup has been decent at best in the ALDS, but their roster has a few more hitters with solid postseason experience compared to the Tigers. Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suarez, and Randy Arozerana have all been underperforming in 2025 but have considerable postseason experience.
In conclusion, Blue Jays’ fans should likely be rooting for Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers to prevail in game 5 of the ALDS on Friday. Seattle’s depth at pitching is best suited for a 7-game series. A Tigers’ victory on Friday would put the Blue Jays in an advantageous spot to advance to the 2025 World Series.
Thank you for reading, and make sure to stay tuned for more articles coming soon!