Who is Ben Rice?
Why Ben Rice’s Next Month Matters
The New York Yankees have their chips on the table. This is not news, but a matter reinforced time and again by the state of the franchise. Consider the following:
- The Yankees traded for a top player in baseball this past December in Juan Soto, giving up two promising arms (and other depth pieces) as future assets.
- Gerrit Cole and Aaron Judge are in the prime of their careers.
- Giancarlo Stanton and DJ LeMahieu’s contracts have not turned into complete albatrosses (I’ll start complaining about them both in earnest next year).
- Brian Cashman and Aaron Boone are both on the “hot-seat” after finishing two games above .500 last year.
- The Yankees have not won a World Series since 2009.
All this… while Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic has come out and said this is the Yankees team with the best chance of winning the World Series since 2009 and, as of writing this, Fangraphs has the Yankees at a 99% chance of making the playoffs.
So… why is this blog post about a prospect you have likely not heard about before? Why not focus on the return of the Cy Young winner who returns to the Yankees this year against the division studs, Orioles?
- Gerrit Cole has already received his flowers. He’s around long term (yes, I know, he’ll opt out of his contract and the Yankees will give him the extra year, as his contractual clause dictates and as he deserves) and he’s looked great in his rehab starts.
- As a team, the Yankees rank 1st in the league in ERA, 9th in FIP, and 10th in pitching WAR this season even without Cole. These stats are buoyed by a stronger starting staff than a relief staff.
- The Yankees will get a relief arm or two at the deadline, specifically one with strikeout potential, as their relievers rank 19th of 30 in K/9.
No, I’m tuned in on the hitting, specifically the quality of the starters around Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. When it comes to the playoffs, some back of the napkin math I employ to figure out if a team can hit is by counting how many of the team’s starting hitters have an OPS above .700. How many hitters have an OPS above .800? Good teams try to forfeit as few lineup spots as possible, think Maldonado with the Astros as the only forfeited spot because he was so well regarded defensively (and this is among many reasons why Tommy Pham will be batting 5th or 6th for a playoff team come October).
Any guesses as to how many bats the Yankees have above .700 OPS as of June 19th?
If you guessed six, you’re on the money. Judge and Soto need to get promoted to another league, Stanton looks like he’s turned back the clock just a bit, Verdugo is playing like a man who wants to get paid and has been a fun Yankee, Trevino is somehow above the line though he splits time with Austin Wells who is well below it, and Volpe has taken a step forward this year. That’s six of nine.
The other spots? Almost the whole infield -- first, second, and third base.
While Gleyber Torres, Oswaldo Cabrera, and LeMahieu need to step up, the one who Yankee fans are most worried about is Anthony Rizzo.
While Rizzo’s March and April splits looked good, he posted a 10 wRC+ in June, with hard hit rates below 34.5% each month. That’s not good. Before going down with an arm injury just two days ago, for the season, his average exit velocity was in the 11th percentile his barrel rate 15th, and bat speed down to 8th percentile. The Yankees’ 87 wRC+ at first base is seventh worst in MLB. Rizzo’s .630 OPS is second worst for all first basemen with 200 plate appearances. All with negative defensive value.
While someone else can write the “Have We Seen the Last of Anthony Rizzo as a Yankee?” piece, I’d like to touch on what options the Yankees have.
Ben Rice gets the first look at first base after hitting .275 with a .925 OPS, 155 wRC+, and 15 homers across AA/AAA this season. A 12th round draft pick out of Dartmouth in the 2021 draft, he had a terrific 2023 with the bat, posting a .1048 OPS with 20 homers across three levels of the minors. This was good enough for a 171 wRC+, or the fifth best mark for all minor league hitters with at least 300 plate appearances. If his bat is this good… why isn’t this a slam dunk? Why isn’t he a house-hold name, top of the morning prospect?
Out of the 20-80 scouting scale, his fielding is rated a 30 out of 30. He’s a bat only prospect. Additionally, he has only recently transitioned from catcher to first base, with only 55 career minor league games at first. Even last night, the Yankees pulled Rice from the game in a late inning defensive adjustment. I’m also watching his K% and how he performs against lefties… two areas where he improved in 2024… before he got to MLB.
Who else could the Yankees go to at first? Other options aren’t as easy… LeMahieu… bleh. Oswaldo… he’ll play around the diamond as a utility guy regardless. Trades? The Yankees aren’t getting Alonso (his best years are behind him anyways). Josh Bell… not exciting. Goldschmidt? Are we sure the Cardinals are ready to punt? Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has said too many bad things about New York to get traded there, especially within the division.
Plus… keep in mind, any deadline move for this year is colored by a looming Soto offer… where the Yankees are publicly saying they are beyond interested, and industry experts expect a $50+ million a year contract. This, combined with the Yankees saying they’d like to stay under the $300 million a year salary threshold as a team means this year’s Yankee free agent class sans-Soto may be gone… Gleyber, Verdugo, and even Clay Holmes despite an heir-apparent.
What does all this mean? You can bet the Yankees front-office is rooting for Ben Rice to succeed… for many reasons, but also because he’s on a good ol’ rookie contract allowing them to allocate all that money saved to future Hall of Famer, Juan Soto.
-WCM