Where O Where Will Jordan Montgomery Sign?

Photo Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

The baseball world has been patiently waiting for the talented southpaw, Jordan Montgomery, to sign with a team this offseason. All signs point to Montgomery returning to the Texas Rangers. 

Montgomery just turned 31 years old in December and is looking to cash in following a year where he threw for the most strikeouts and innings that he has ever done in a season. 

Montgomery was born and raised in South Carolina. He ended up enrolling at the University of South Carolina where he played baseball for three seasons. After college, Montgomery was drafted in the 4th round by the New York Yankees. He was able to throw for 155.1 innings in 2017 (1st year in majors!). Unfortunately, after a few short innings in 2018, Montgomery was removed from a game and ultimately was diagnosed with a tear in his ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) and would have to undergo the knife for the notorious Tommy John surgery. 

Since 2021 Montgomery owns an ERA that is sub 4.00. He has come into his own and is a great option at the 2-3 role in most rotations. His arsenal contains a 5-pitch mix including a Sinker, Changeup, Curveball, Four Seamer, and a Cutter. He primarily relies upon his Sinker (42.6%) of his total pitches according to Baseball Savant. What I see is the Sinker usage is up vastly since 2021 and guess what…he has been nothing short of awesome during that time. 

2023 Stats: 

4.1 WAR | 10-11 | 3.20 ERA | 32 GS | 188.2 IP | 166 SO | 1.193 WHIP

Career Stats: 

12.5 WAR | 38-34 | 3.68 | 140 GS | 755.0 IP | 705 SO | 1.209 WHIP

Looks like Montgomery will get a solid deal, although I do not think his K% will get him top dollar. He does a really good job of keeping hitters on the ground.  Owns a Groundball%  of 42.7% from 2021 and on. Realistically he is going to sign with a contender. If we look at all the teams, that rationally eliminates about a third of the league plus the teams that already made their moves this offseason. Just looking at the market my gut tells me that the Rangers, Twins, Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs, Tigers, or the Phillies make the most sense. Philadelphia, Minnesota, Toronto, and Chicago are all contenders who need pitching. Tigers haven’t made many moves and could probably afford to take on his contract. Tigers have a young lineup and can use veteran arms to compete in WINNABLE American League Central. Angels are a stretch, but they are looking at Snell so that tells me they are going to spend, and if they don't land Snell maybe Montgomery?

My prediction is he will end up back in Texas! Fresh off a World Series and with two key starters in question in Scherzer and deGrom, one would have to think it would be smart to bring Montgomery in to try and run it back. Let us see if Montgomery signs here in the next few days and how my prediction does.

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