Under-the-Radar Trade Candidates that can be Impact Arms in 2nd Half Part 1
Under-the-Radar Trade Candidates that can be Impact Arms in 2nd Half Part 1
OC Makes His Return
The world of relief pitching is wildly fascinating. In the eyes of many fans, a considerable number of pitchers find success seemingly out of nowhere. There’s a plethora of variables that can transform an unknown pitcher into a successful reliever.
A variety of changes a player can make include pitch adjustments, biomechanic adjustments, changing pitch usage, having an outlier pitch, or having an deceiving/funky windup. I’ve scoured Fangraphs’ Leaderboards, RosterResource, Baseball Savant, and Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard to bring you some relief pitchers that I think could be under-the-radar trade targets this year.
When compiling this list, I wanted to choose players from teams that are not expected to succeed this season. After considering team performances through the first month, I was left with few options. Teams like the Royals, Tigers and Pirates for example that were not competitive last year have started 2024 strong and are not teams that will trade off bullpen arms the way things stand. Inversely, teams like the Diamondbacks, Astros and Rays have not started as hot as most would have thought. Again, these are teams that would be expected to rebound into contention as the first half wears on.
On top of that, it wouldn’t really make for an under-the-radar list if I chose any pitchers that have performed well in the recent past or are performing extremely well to start the year. Lastly, I refined my list to one pitcher per team (excluding an HM at the end).
After these considerations, I was left with six teams, give or take, to pick from. It is not the extensive list of candidates I would have liked, especially when factoring in which players teams would actually trade. Each team is in a different window of competition. Age, team control, past performance, and competitive window all need to be kept in mind when determining the blend of value and fit within the team. We see it time and time again when bad teams have a breakout pitcher and decide not to trade him, and keep him as an anchor for their competitive window.
Despite my self-placed restrictions, I still made due and found multiple arms I liked rather quickly. The cherry on top for all you reliever fans out there, this list is about trade candidates, so what good would the list be without trade fits! I matched up each pitcher with a team fit that I personally like. Feel free to share your thoughts as well.
Jake Bird COL: Jake Bird was at the top of the list the moment I saw his Stuff+ on Fangraphs. He has three pitches that grade out at 124 or better. Those are his cutter (124), slider (135), and curveball (140). His sinker is by far the worst-graded pitch at 92, and he uses it as his table setter.
He has a very low ¾, practically side arm delivery (that you can see here), and creates a weird visual for hitters. Combine that with three plus pitches and we have some clay to be molded. There are a few things that stand out to me about Bird and his lack of success to start the year. His sinker (like we said grades out below average), does not get much horizontal break (-11.6 in) and he leaves it in the heart of the zone 33% of the time. Outside of that, he is practically a two-pitch guy against righties, sinkers, and sliders. The sinker is thrown 50% of the time, while the slider is thrown 42.4% of the time.
Bird has been better against righties so far this year and the xStats support that. However, a 4.01 xFIP remains unideal. The curveball and cutter are almost exclusively against lefties and both only have two BBEs so the sample is as small as it gets. An overall arsenal Stuff+ of 116 and above league average velocity should not be yielding a 13.3% K rate, so how do we get Bird where he could be?
It is my belief that mixing his pitch usage would be a great place to start. His sinker has performed well, in part thanks to an extreme ground ball rate (55.6%), but should not be thrown anywhere near 46.8% of the time. I would start playing all the pitches around the same usage. His slider has clearly been the pitch he commands the best in 2024. He nails it low and away to righties and lives in the shadow of the plate. The slider has to be his primary offering.
It’s hard to just say his sinker should be the least used pitch, but early returns on his cutter (albeit a small sample of 17 pitches) have been positive. He has gotten the cutter much more to the glove slide, and when it is in the heart of the plate, it is on the outer half to lefties. If he were to maintain this command, the cutter could be an lethal part of his arsenal.
Bird needs to mix his arsenal more. His slider should be the primary pitch, followed by the cutter, sinker, then curveball. His usage can and should change depending on the results of each pitch. Nonetheless, I would expect him to continue being a heavy ground ball pitcher and one that can successfully strikeout hitters.
Trade Fits: A bidding war could ensue in the AL East for Bird’s services as I see the Yankees and the Red Sox as teams interested in acquiring the sidearm righty. First I was leaning Yankees because of the cutter. Bird’s cutter is pretty close to a ‘Yankee Cutter’ Lance Brozdowski breaks down in his video. I could see the Yankees looking to trade for Bird, trying to add some sweep to his cutter and making it a more prominent part of his repertoire.
I started to lean towards the Red Sox because Bird’s cutter isn’t quite a ‘Yankee Cutter’ yet, and the Sox have heavily incorporated cutters as well with their pitchers. Overall, I feel like Bird fits the Red Sox pitching philosophy better. The Yankees have at most a handful of guys that barely or do not use a 4-Seam fastball. The Red Sox have plenty of relievers that barely or do not use a 4-Seam, eight to be exact. Bird’s sidearm delivery slightly resembles a less exaggerated version of the likes of Houck or Sale which we know the Red Sox feel positively about.
The one thing that brings me back in the middle of these two teams is the high ground ball rate. The Red Sox’s infield defense has been brutal so far but I cannot completely blame them with the injuries to Story and Casas who are above average infielders. The Yankees on the other hand have a pair of plus defenders up the middle in Volpe and Torres. Even Cabrera at third has been an average or better defender until this year. Either way, I see Bird as a player both teams would covet despite any of these reasons and would ultimately settle on the Red Sox being the team.
Robert Garcia WSH: Garcia almost gave Bird a run for his money, but at the end of the day, there was one specific aspect that bumped him down a notch. I found all of these players through the Stuff+ page to start, so Garcia’s 111 Stuff+ fastball and 112 Stuff+ slider stuck out to me followed by a relatively average 97 Stuff+ changeup. I did not know the name and further research ensued.
I soon learned how much I liked the pitcher, plus he is only 27. Then I saw the numbers. Overall Garcia is great. He has gotten extremely unlucky this year and his xERA (2.91) is over 3.00 lower than his ERA (6.48) while his xFIP is even better at 2.52.
Despite having a slider that grades out well, Garcia cut his slider usage almost 50% this year, going from 24.1% to 13.3%. This was for good reason because so far in 2024, the slider is the only thing getting hit well. When you look at the heat map on Baseball Savant, you see his slider is being left in the middle of the zone.
The same heat maps will tell you Garcia locates his fastball outstandingly, concentrating it up and in to lefties. He kills ride on the changeup allowing it to plummet where it sits bottom of the zone. The changeup has been his best performing pitch but has not been thrown against a lefty. For this reason, I would not touch the changeup.
Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard actually says that Garcia’s slider is in the heart of the zone the least of his three pitches (23.8%) and is also in the shadow of the zone 57.1% of the time. Despite this, he has not generated a single whiff on the slider and I would like to see him decrease the shadow% and increase on a 9.5 chase%. Locating that slider lower and/or more outside to lefties could take Garcia to the next level.
Garcia is definitely the most presently attractive pitcher on this list and has the least risk (in theory). If the slider location gets better and he starts dipping it out of the zone more, Garcia could become an incredible platoon neutral option since he is currently far better against righties.
Trade Fit: Just like Bird, there are two teams here that I could see going after Garcia and no, they are not in the same division this time. Both teams are lacking LHP in the bullpen, and even though we noted Garcia is better against righties, the point of this list is to find players that can make positive adjustments with their new team.
Ultimately, I would see this coming down to which team is more desperate to replenish their bullpen. The Cubs were the best defensive infield in MLB last year and Garcia’s 62.5% ground ball would be ideal for a plus defensive infield. Unfortunately, the Cubs overall infield defense has not been as ideal this year but Swanson and Hoerner have continued to thrive up the middle.
While the Cubs were the league leaders last year, the Rangers are the league leaders this year. Even though the Rangers won the World Series, their bullpen struggles were well documented throughout the year. Chris Young might try to get ahead of that problem this year and aggressively pursue a fit for his bullpen.
The Cubs, also lacking lefties, made a deadline deal with the Nationals last year when they acquired Jeimer Candelario for DJ Herz. That deal worked out in Mike Rizzo’s favor and he might want to dip back into the Cubs’ well again this year.
There are no organizational philosophies in play here to lead me to a decision, but as I stated at the beginning, this probably would come down to desperation and who needs a lefty more. In this case, the NL Central is very competitive and I think Garcia gets a plane ticket to Chicago.
Luis Garcia LAA: This might not come as quite an under-the-radar arm to some of you. Luis Garcia is 37 and has 8 years of service time dating back to 2013. The Angels are his fourth team since 2020, and by the end of this hypothetical, he’ll be on his fifth team in as many years.
Garcia has had multiple good seasons throughout his career, but has lacked consistent production in a third consecutive season which I find quite interesting. That just speaks to the volatility of the life of a reliever. Tying this back to my initial statement, Garcia might be a known name and I was searching for players that were relatively unknown. Once I saw how long he’s been around I figured my mind must be betraying me because I do not remember him for the life of me. Regardless, Garcia might have the most red on his savant page on this list and is looking to continue the success he started a few years ago.
I do think Garcia’s numbers start leveling out the more he pitches (which is fair to say for all of these guys). However, he is the only one in his mid or late 30s and makes the most money on the list, inherently lowering his value.
Garcia already boasts the 100th percentile chase rate (42.2%) while only throwing his splitter 11.0% of the time. He’s always had the splitter (since 2017) and it’s always been good. I’d like to see him continue incorporating it more and if he can remotely maintain the 55.6% whiff rate on it, that could be his calling card.
The funny thing is both Garcias on this list are reverse split guys. Luis Garcia carves up lefties by having an almost equal usage of his four pitches. The splitter has been used the most at 29.7% (19/64). So while the splitter is his least used pitch overall, it’s his most used (and most effective) against lefties. This is all the more reason to throw it more against righties. The sinker has not been terrible, but if he threw it less and tunneled the splitter with the sinker to righties, I bet he sees more swing and miss.
Trade Fit: Believe me, I really struggled to find a fit I liked here. Garcia is making $4.25 million this year and that financial aspect is weighing on this decision. I don’t really see smaller market teams in the hunt taking on a 37 year old with over $2 million left by the deadline. Sure the Angels could cover some of the money, but I don’t know if they would and that uncertainty makes me stay away from those teams.
Money clearly was not a problem for the Diamondbacks after they signed Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery to solidify the rotation. They still have money to spend and are looking to get back to the World Series. Now, after a rocky start to the season, the bullpen is in trouble. Garcia is a great reverse platoon option, with the potential to be platoon neutral for the Diamondbacks. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Garcia ended up being one of the more reliable, go to arms for Torey Lovullo in the second half.
This concludes Part 1 of “ UTR Trade Candidates that can be Impact Arms in the 2nd Half”. If your team did not acquire any of these three hidden gems, stay tuned for next week to see if I ship any new names to your favorite team. If any of these pitchers are currently on your favorite team, I am deeply sorry about your losing situation. Anyway, I want to hear your thoughts, and I will see you next week.