Trea Turner Is Having the Most Underrated Season in Major League Baseball
Quietly leading all NL shortstops in fWAR value, Trea Turner is doing everything right but isn't being talked about enough
I am willing to bet that most of you reading this might think of Francisco Lindor, who is an All-Star finalist, or maybe Elly De La Cruz, who has 18 HR, 57 RBI, and 22 SB, as being the most valuable shortstops in the NL this year. While both have been impressive, you'd be wrong. The answer would be Trea Turner. Turner has been fantastic for a player some people were writing off at the beginning of the year.
Through 82 games, Turner has put together a quietly dominant campaign: 11 HR, 58 R, 38 RBI, 20 SB, a .296 AVG, .348 OBP, .456 SLG, .351 wOBA, and a 122 wRC+. Most notably, his 3.5 fWAR leads all NL shortstops and is only behind Jeremy Peña and Bobby Witt Jr. across all of Major League Baseball. While his advanced profile doesn’t jump out to most people, including myself, in terms of raw power or hard-hit metrics, something that’s primarily been true since his 46.2% hard-hit rate in 2021, he’s doing a lot of things well and has made real improvements from last season. In 2024, Turner hit 21 HR, stole 19 bases, and posted a .807 OPS. This year, he’s building off that with subtle but meaningful adjustments to his overall profile.
Looking at his year-to-year adjustments, I noticed an improved profile. His K% has gone from 18.2% to 16.6%, and his BB% has increased from 5.0% to 6.5%. His Whiff% has dropped slightly from 26.1% to 24.9%, and his LA Sweet-Spot% has climbed from 30.9% to 35.1%, indicating a better launch angle approach and hitting the ball in the air more. He's also made slight gains in both barrel rate and average exit velocity (from 91.2 MPH to 91.7 MPH), while keeping his hard-hit rate around the same level. Against fastballs, he’s improved across the board: BA: .313—.351, xBA: .292—.305, wOBA: .385—.400. His SLG and xSLG are around his 2024 marks, but his contact quality is more optimized overall.
Turner's batted ball profile, when looking deeper into the data, is improved from 2024. He’s hitting more line drives (16.2%—19.4%), fewer groundballs (47.3%—44.1%), and is holding the same flyball rate (36.5%). His max exit velocity this year is 111.7 MPH, his highest since 2022. In terms of Ideal Contact Rate (ICR), he’s gone from 35.8% to 39.2%, and his Ideal Plate Appearance% (IPA%) has jumped from 27.1% to 29.6%, his best since 2021 (30.3%) during his time with the Dodgers and Nationals. His O-Swing% has dropped significantly over the past three years (37.1%—36.2%—31.3%), and he’s showing rolling gains in contact rate (70.4%—73.9%—74.9%). His O-Contact% has also improved steadily from 50.6% to 51.7%. That means he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone while making more contact when he does chase, exactly what you want to see from Turner.
I also wanted to highlight Turner’s defensive resurgence. After posting -3 Outs Above Average in 2024, he now sits at +8 OAA in 2025, placing him in the top 3% of MLB defenders. On top of that, he’s faster this season and showing improved arm strength. At the plate, he’s handling middle-middle and top-quadrant pitches exceptionally well and isn’t getting beat often in the zone. Trea Turner might not be grabbing headlines, but he’s been one of the most complete players in the game this year, and he deserves to be recognized for it. I think he deserves to be starting in this year’s All-Star Game.
