Overall Takeaway
I watched a lot of MLB Big Inning this weekend. I typically don’t, as I prefer just to watch the Red Sox feed, but I decided to get frisky and see what the rest of the league was doing. If you have never watched Big Inning, it is essentially MLB’s version of Red Zone. It is fun, but it doesn’t do a great job jumping from game to game. Overall, it is fun to tune in from time to time, and this weekend I jumped in.
As I lay there, I found myself catching a bunch of former top prospects that I followed incessantly as they were in the minors: Jordan Walker, Jackson Holliday, Dylan Crews, and more.
This isn’t a list of “busts.” Everyone here is talented, and most still have the opportunity to turn things around. But these are the players who were once among the most hyped in the sport, and in 2025, we’re still waiting for them to put all the pieces together.
Evan Carter — Rangers, OF
Peak Prospect Rank: #5 in 2024
Career MLB Stats: 131 G | .235/.326/.420 | 15 HR | 52 RBI | 19 SB | 23.6% K | 10.1% BB
The Hype: Evan Carter burst onto the scene in the playoffs as the Rangers marched to the World Series. He was INSANE during that postseason and set a record for doubles. He came into 2024 as a Top 5 prospect and was viewed as a cornerstone of the Rangers.
The Reality: He’s barely been able to stay on the field. A serious back injury cost him most of 2024, and even when healthy, the swing hasn’t looked explosive. His discipline is still there, but the damage output is limited. Carter still feels like a cornerstone, but the durability questions are piling up.
I actually think his coming-out party in the playoffs hurt him more than it helped him. Let me explain. He was called up on September 8th and only played 28 games in the regular season. While solid, that is still a minimal sample size during a period where half the teams he was facing were out of playoff contention. Fast forward to the playoffs, and while he was great, I don’t think teams were spending an enormous amount of time trying to figure Evan Carter out. Like many prospects, he flourished in the first month before pitchers really figured him out. Sure, I could be completely wrong, but he has not come close to that production in two years. Even when healthy.
Dylan Crews — Nationals, OF
Peak Prospect Rank: #7 in 2024
Career MLB Stats: 109 G | .215/.286/.358 | 12 HR | 34 RBI | 28 SB | 23% K | 7.7% BB
The Hype: College superstar at LSU, the most “MLB-ready” hitter in his draft class, a supposed fast riser. Friend of Paul Skenes.
The Reality: He’s looked overmatched. The strikeouts are high, the power has been modest, and while the speed plays, Washington expected more polish. He still has a few years before he is near Luis Robert Jr.'s level of “bustish”, but right now, he isn’t looking great.
Jordan Lawlar — Diamondbacks, SS
Peak Prospect Rank: #4 in 2025
Career MLB Stats: 35 G | .149/.219/.218 | 0 HR | 5 RBI | 3 SB | 34.4% K | 6.3% BB
The Hype: A flashy shortstop with five-tool projection, considered Arizona’s long-term answer up the middle.
The Reality: Lawlar is one of the worst players in baseball right now. He hasn’t been able to stay healthy (thumb, hamstring) and hasn’t hit at all when he’s been in the lineup. Still just 23, but with a 34% K rate in limited MLB at-bats, he looks a long way from being an everyday piece.
Jordan Walker — Cardinals, OF
Peak Prospect Rank: #1 in 2023
Career MLB Stats: 258 G | .244/.304/.387 | 26 HR | 105 RBI | 15 SB | 32.5% K | 7% BB
The Hype: 6’6 250 with speed. I stopped what I was doing on Opening Day 2023 to watch Walker march into the stadium. Everything pointed towards him being a complete package.
The Reality: He’s shown flashes, but the issues are clear: way too many groundballs, inconsistent loft, and defensive struggles in RF. Walker’s raw talent is undeniable. He is 99th percentile in bat speed and 92nd in AEV. One would think that would eventually translate to more production. Right now, it has translated to him missing the ball more than anyone in baseball.
Grayson Rodriguez — Orioles, RHP
Peak Prospect Rank: #3 in 2022
Career MLB Stats: 43 GS | 25.7% K | 7.8% BB | 3.86 ERA (2024)
The Hype: Best pitching prospect in baseball. Power stuff, frontline ace projection.
The Reality: He’s closer than most here, but injuries have ruined the start of his career. Rodriguez looked lost early in 2023 before a strong bounce-back in the second half. By 2024, he was Baltimore’s strikeout leader, but he still battles with efficiency and command. In August of 2024, he was shut down, and well, we haven’t seen him since. He got surgery a month ago, and there is a glimmer of hope he is ready by Opening Day, but I don’t think we'll see him until June of 2026.
Druw Jones — Diamondbacks, OF
Peak Prospect Rank: #15 in 2023
Career MLB Stats: 0 G (No MLB debut yet)
The Hype: Son of Andruw Jones, elite defensive chops, projection power bat, #2 overall pick.
The Reality: Look, he is still only 21 years old, so I want to make it clear that I do not think he is a bust. However, he was ranked as high as 4th by Baseball America in 2024, which is crazy. In 2025, he has been average at best. He has shown speed (27 SB) but lacks any power (5 HR).
Jackson Holliday — Orioles, IF
Peak Prospect Rank: #1 in 2024
Career MLB Stats: 203 G | .234/.303/.368 | 22 HR | 78 RBI | 21 SB | 24.7% K | 8.2% BB
The Hype: Baseball’s golden boy — polished, sweet swing, destined for stardom before turning 21.
The Reality: Reality hit hard. Holliday was overmatched in his 2024 debut and needed a return trip to Triple-A. By 2025, he’s back as a regular, but the average is pedestrian and the whiffs are piling up. Still incredibly young, but this was supposed to be “the next Juan Soto.” Right now, it’s more growing pains than greatness.
Marco Luciano — Giants, SS
Peak Prospect Rank: #5 in 2021
Career MLB Stats: 41 G | .217/.286/.304 | 0 HR | 3 RBI | 1 SB | 35.7% K | 8.7% BB
The Hype: At one point, the Giants’ next superstar shortstop. Huge raw power.
The Reality: He’s been hurt, he’s struck out a ton, and he hasn’t impacted the ball in the majors. In the minors, he is barely above the Mendoza line and has now been moved to the outfield. Of all the players on this list, he has the highest chance to be a complete bust.
Royce Lewis — Twins, IF
Peak Prospect Rank: #7 in 2019
Career MLB Stats: 249 G | .257/.313/.456 | 45 HR | 152 RBI | 18 SB | 21% K | 7.6% BB
The Hype: #1 overall pick, supposed to be Minnesota’s franchise cornerstone.
The Reality: The body of an 80-year-old man.
Luis Robert Jr. — White Sox, OF
Peak Prospect Rank: #3 in 2020
Career MLB Stats: 577 G | .259/.313/.455 | 102 HR | 298 RBI | 102 SB | 26.8% K | 6.3% BB
The Hype: The Cuban phenom — five tools, face of the rebuild, MVP ceiling.
The Reality: He’s been an All-Star, he’s hit 38 homers in a season, and yet… it still feels incomplete. Injuries keep him off the field, the plate approach is erratic, and his consistency has never matched his raw tools. In 2025, he was making up for his lack of power with speed. He stole 33 bags over 382 AB. How much of it is being on one of the worst teams in baseball history? We will never know.
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