Top 5 Starting Rotations in Baseball Right Now
Which teams will have the arms advantage come playoff time?
Honorable Mentions:
The Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves have both earned some praise. I can go on and on about how both of these rotations deserve some recognition and could be in my Top 5 rotations in baseball but the problem is they are both banged up badly. Atlanta is missing arguably the best pitcher in baseball, Spencer Strider, atleast when it comes to strikeouts. Then there are the Orioles…how many times this month am I going to check the news and see another pitcher in Baltimore has gone down and will require some sort of elbow surgery? Point is both of these staffs are still incredible and getting the job done even with the hardships they have faced but just fall short of making the top 5. The one thing I’ll add just to make myself feel good is that about 6 weeks ago a post on X became viral about how the Baltimore Orioles rotation has so much depth and I left a comment stating “ I’d love to see the O’s go and get another starter at the deadline”. I was ATTACKED for this statement and what do you know? Since that statement, John Means, Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells seasons have all been lost and the O’s are suddenly in need of depth at a position. Oriole Nation was so confident they were secure in that department but as a Yankee fan, I have learned there is no amount of depth I am comfortable with when it comes to pitching. The only reason I even commented was that I want to see the Orioles do well since they are exciting but clearly following last year’s playoffs, pitching was the problem. Let me state that I am not happy these players are injured or that I was proven right by injury. I am stating this as people need to learn to calm down. Baseball is a long season and just like football, it is next man up. Elbow surgery is the kiss of death like ACL tears in football and they happen ALL THE TIME!
5) Los Angeles Dodgers
In my personal opinion, no organization has had more injuries of significant impact with their starting rotation this season than the Dodgers. I’d understand if someone would want to make an argument for the Astros, Marlins, and/or Rays as they too have been decimated by injuries but I am showing my appreciation for Los Angeles as they not only sustained countless injuries but have been able to put out an amazing product still. That being said Los Angeles has been able to manage this season as they spent some cash during free agency and been able to develop some talent via the farm system successfully. Some questioned the obnoxious amount of money they spent but clearly, they needed depth and it is starting to show more and more as they continue to pile on the injuries. The money spent on free agency should not overshadow the impressive job that Mark Prior and Connor McGuiness have done with the staff so far in 2024. James Paxton is not getting any younger at 35 and has delivered his best ERA since 2017 through 13 starts. Tyler Glasnow is a new face in L.A. but is currently the ACE of the staff and has been nothing short of fantastic as we approach the halfway mark of the season. Gavin Stone has taken a massive year-2 jump and Bobby Miller has already shown signs of greatness last year in his rookie season. My gut tells me it is just a matter of time before he starts putting it all together again as he too is just getting back from injury. It is only a matter of time before Buehler gets back to cooking and Kershaw returns to the rotation. Yes, Kershaw did just have a hiccup in his rehabilitation of the shoulder but from the reports I am reading, I am not too worried. The Yamamoto news is devastating especially with Miller just getting back and the reinforcements of Kershaw and Dustin May are on the way. If Yamamoto can get back this season and Los Angeles doesn’t undergo any other catastrophic injuries I think this rotation has the potential to be the best in all of baseball. Did I mention Shohei hasn’t pitched for them all season?
Notable Team Stats: 3rd-ERA (3.34), 5th-K (682), 5th-QS (36), 9th-WAR (9.1), 3rd-LOB% (75.6%)
IL: Clayton Kershaw, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Michael Grove, Emmet Sheehan, {technically Shohei Ohtani}
SP1: Tyler Glasnow
100 IP | 12.15 K/9 | 2.88 ERA | 2.9 WAR
SP2: Walker Buehler
37 IP | 7.54 K/9 | 5.84 ERA | -0.3 WAR
SP3: Gavin Stone
80 IP | 7.09 K/9 | 3.04 ERA | 1.5 WAR
SP4: Bobby Miller
20 IP | 9.45 K/9 | 6.75 ERA | 0.1 WAR
SP5:: James Paxton
71.2 IP | 6.15 K/9 | 3.65 ERA | 0.2 WAR
SP6: Ryan Yarbrough
49.1 IP | 4.38 K/9 | 3.28 ERA | -0.2 WAR
SP7: Landon Knack
25.2 IP | 6.31 K/9 | 2.10 ERA | 0.3 WAR
4) Boston Red Sox
Andrew Bailey has this Boston pitching staff operating like a well-oiled machine. The reason I have the Red Sox above the Dodgers currently is strictly due the WAR statistic. There is no true ACE in this rotation yet the staff has accumulated a 11.2 WAR so far this season. That would be the 2nd best staff in the MLB if I were to rank a staff directly off of WAR. The season has gone better than expected in Boston and I have to credit the pitching. Up until recently, this staff was a nightmare for opposing lineups. However, Kutter Crawford has pitched to an ERA north of 5.00 over the last month. Brayan Bello has been significantly worse than Crawford with a 7.76 ERA. Pivetta has had a couple of rough outings across his last few starts but I am not concerned for the long haul with Pivetta. Cooper Criswell was just optioned following a decent season and Tanner Houck continues to be the one and true bright spot of Boston’s rotation. This rotation is easily the most intriguing of the ones I am highlighting today as they simply lack that Cy Young caliber pitcher on staff that every other team addressed in this article. Tanner Houck is really good, will he ever win a Cy Young? My money says no.
Notable Team Stats: 2nd-WAR (11.2), 6th-ERA (3.54), 5th-WHIP (1.18), 207 BB (4th least in MLB)
IL: Lucas Giolito, Cooper Criswell (optioned 6.18)
SP1: Tanner Houck
103.1 IP | 8.80 K/9 | 2.18 ERA | 3.6 WAR
SP2: Kutter Crawford
92.2 IP | 9.23 K/9 | 3.59 ERA | 1.5 WAR
SP3: Nick Pivetta
57.2 IP | 9.99 K/9 | 4.06 ERA | 0.5 WAR
SP4: Brayan Bello
71.1 IP | 8.07 K/9 | 5.55 ERA | 0.3 WAR
SP5: Chris Martin???
24.1 IP | 9.99 K/9 | 3.70 ERA | 0.2 WAR
3) New York Yankees
Well here is something no one saw coming…the Yankees’ starting rotation is one of the best in all of baseball. Luis Gil might be the biggest surprise performer of the season and I don’t just mean for the Yankees’ staff. The sheer fact that the Yankees were not only able to manage but dominate without Cole around for the first 3ish months of the season is a miracle. There is not one Yankee fan who would have made a bet that the pitching would have done this well so far, especially without reining Cy Young winner, Gerrit Cole. Having the Yankees in the top-5 is somewhat biased and I wouldn’t be surprised if they slip up in the back half a bit but I will take what I can get as a fan. Cole is still figuring things out as he has only made 2x starts since his return (got lit up like a Christmas tree vs. Mets last night…4 HRs allowed). Rodon, Stroman, Cortes, and Schmidt have been stellar all season. Very unfortunate to lose Schmidt to the IL, at least it happened right as Cole came back. Will Luis Gil continue to rampage against opposing lineups in the 2nd half? I sure hope so but I can see some regression coming. Given the successes so far, I still think the Yankees need to get another backend starter at the deadline for a long playoff run.
Notable Team Stats: 2nd-ERA (3.28), 3rd-OBA (.222), 7th-WHIP (1.20), 4th-H (595)
IL: Clarke Schmidt
SP1: Gerrit Cole
8 IP | 5.63 K/9 | 9.00 ERA | -0.4 WAR
SP2: Carlos Rodon
88.2 IP | 8.53 K/9 | 3.86 ERA | 0.8 WAR
SP3: Marcus Stroman
91.1 IP | 6.60 K/9 | 3.15 ERA | 0.3 WAR
SP4: Nestor Cortes
100.2 IP | 8.31 K/9 | 3.40 ERA | 2 WAR
SP5: Luis Gil
81.1 IP | 10.73 K/9 | 2.77 ERA | 1.9 WAR
2) Philadelphia Phillies
I might get crucified for putting Philadelphia 2nd but I have to go with my gut. Trust me I love this rotation and appreciate Sanchez and Suarez more and more every start. Nola and Wheeler are arguably the best 1-2 combo in baseball right now. Ranger Suarez has a legit shot to win the NY Cy Young award as the team’s 3rd best pitcher. Currently, Suarez, Sanchez, and Wheeler are ranked 1-2-3 when it comes to the best ERA in the National League and Nola is sitting at #14. The fact they have 4 of their top 5 starters inside the top 15 in ERA of the National League is disgusting. They have been putting a beating on teams and are tied for the best record in baseball. Why do I have them as the 2nd best rotation? I simply do not have faith in Suarez to continue dominating at this level. I know that is a horrible argument but nothing from his baseball reference page has convinced me otherwise. His career ERA is 3.16…a whole 1.15 worse than what it currently stands. I would bet money that there is some regression. Same story for Sanchez who just was awarded a 4-year deal for his efforts this season. His career ERA is a 3.62 yet he is pitching to a 2.67? Maybe the pitching coach, Caleb Cotham, has been able to help these two figure something out but that doesn’t make me comfortable with the 5th option either who is now Spencer Turnbull after Taijuan Walker just hit the IL. Overall they are in great shape and I’d expect Philadelphia to go out and try and find another starter at the deadline for a World Series run.
Notable Team Stats: 1st-WAR (14.6), 1st-ERA (3.08), 3rd-WHIP (1.13), 4th-OBA (.225)
IL: Taijaun Walker
SP1: Zack Wheeler
99 IP | 9.73 K/9 | 2.73 ERA | 2.4 WAR
SP2: Aaron Nola
101 IP | 8.02 K/9 | 3.39 ERA | 1.6 WAR
SP3: Ranger Suarez
98.1 IP | 9.06 K/9 | 2.01 ERA | 3.0 WAR
SP4: Cristopher Sanchez
84.1 IP | 7.47 K/9 | 2.67 ERA | 2.6 WAR
SP5: Spencer Turnbull
51.1 IP | 9.82 K/9 | 5.60 ERA | 0.7 WAR
1) Seattle Mariners
Yes, you are reading this correctly. If the playoffs were starting today and I had to pick a rotation to roll with heading into the playoffs it would be the Seattle Mariners and the stable of arms they have assembled. I know this might be crazy but I love the depth. Yes, Bryan Woo, just went back on the IL but I do think he will be back this season from what I am seeing as it is a hamstring tightness issue. Castillo, Gilbert, Kirby, Miller, and Hancock have been incredible as a unit this season. Castillo is arguably having his worst season as a Mariner yet still getting the job done. My instinct tells me he will be even better in the 2nd half as he has lowkey been one of the best pitchers over the past 5 years. Hancock is still young and developing (hopefully Woo comes back sooner rather than later). Gilbert, Kirby, and Miller are all just so solid across the board. All three of those guys sit under a 4.00 ERA, are all around 100 IP, all have K/9 ratios greater than 8.30 K/9. My determining factor of Seattle > Philadelphia was the regression factor. Right now only Gilbert is significantly producing better results than his career numbers in the Seattle rotation but Gilbert was always considered a highly coveted pitching prospect so maybe he has just progressed this year? I know Sanchez and Suarez are 27 & 28 years old but they have never pitched this well in their careers so I just going with the numbers. I could be wrong but I am going with Seattle.
Notable Team Stats: 1st-WHIP (1.09), 2nd-OBA (.219), 7th-ERA (3.59), 7th-WAR (9.4)
IL: Bryan Woo
SP1: Luis Castillo
94.1 IP | 9.16 K/9 | 3.63 ERA | 1.5 WAR
SP2: Logan Gilbert
106.1 IP | 8.38 K/9 | 2.71 ERA | 2.2 WAR
SP3: George Kirby
93.1 IP | 8.58 K/9 | 3.47 ERA | 2.1 WAR
SP4: Bryce Miller
92.1 IP | 8.29 K/9 | 3.90 ERA | 0.9 WAR
SP5: Emerson Hancock
41.1 IP | 5.23 K/9 | 4.79 ERA | -0.2 WAR