The Skipper's View Home Run Derby Predictions
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The All-Star festivities bum me out. The Futures Game, which aims to promote the next crop of big league stars, was scheduled alongside a full slate of MLB games. The “Celebrity” Softball Game had more WHO?!s than the Los Angeles Angels’ farm system. And ever since the All-Star Game stopped having stakes, it has turned into nothing more than a showcase exhibition of which above-average first half performances Philadelphians rallied behind. But on Monday, 7/15 at 8PM ET, we have the one saving grace of this godforsaken break in scheduling: the Home Run Derby.
Yes, the Home Run Derby is in fact the greatest part about this weekend. Gone are any notions of having an “approach” or “plate discipline”. For an unadulterated 3 rounds, the field can take absolute daddy-hacks without some Will Hailey-esque nerd screaming about their unsustainable 35% K-rates. It is baseball’s post-July 4th fireworks show, where America’s beefiest sluggers and Alec Bohm duke it out against each other.
The field this year is… interesting to say the least (for more thoughts on participants, take a look at Brett’s views or Will Hailey’s unhinged wishlist). On top of that, MLB has tweaked the format. This year, the participants of the Derby are NOT matched up head-to-head, and instead, aim to be in the top 4 of most home runs hit in the first round to move on. From there, the semi-finalists are re-seeded based on number of big flies hit and the bracket commences head-to-head. As such, I’ve enlisted my friends at the Skipper’s View to help me sort through all of this. Without further ado, here are our predictions for who takes the title for the Duke of Ding Dongs:
WHO?! Didn’t Make It Out of the First Round?
(8) Alec Bohm
Unfortunately, this isn’t a “Doubles that One-Hop the Wall” Derby or else Bohm might have a shot. He was the only player who did not get a single vote amongst the Skipper’s View to make it out of the 1st round. Let Harper do it, you cowards.
(7) Adolis Garcia
Garcia enters the Derby as the only non-All Star participant, looking to become the fourth participant to win in his home turf. Adolis is a streaky hitter, and he’s unfortunately been on a cold-streak for a month and a half. He is still making hard contact and can switch it on in an instant, as we saw in last year’s postseason.
(6) Marcell Ozuna
While Ozuna from the Braves brings in a 98th percentile barrel rate to the competition, the weight of everyone except Atlanta rooting against him will end his tournament prematurely.
(5) Teoscar Hernandez
Hernandez had an absolute blazing start, but has since cooled off a bit. I personally think Teoscar makes it to the next round as the top seed, and Dean takes it a bit further:
Dean: the Dodgers love winning fake contests. Just look at their 2020 World Series. With their team falling apart, Teoscar sees the opportunity to be this season’s hero.
While he has some fans here, he just misses the cut.
Our Final Four
(4) Jose Ramirez
One of baseball’s under-heralded stars barely misses the podium. While his Statcast page doesn’t jump off the page, something he does bring to the table is Home Run Derby experience. Only Alonso and Garcia will be able to boast about appearing in this contest multiple times. I personally had him falling just short in the finals, but OverDue Sports has a different take.
ODS: Just no two ways about it, Ramirez is the best player in the whole damn thing. Always finds a way and he's gonna find a to take down the Polar Bear before he turns to a Cub, Gunnar just ain't ready for the big stage. Small market king takes the crown in 2024.
(3) Bobby Witt Jr.
It’s impossible not to root for Bibby Wott, the young phenom from Kansas City. Even though Witt Jr. is not the most prolific power hitter in the field (he enters the All-Star Break with 16 taters), he boasts a 15% barrel rate, trailing only Ozuna amongst all the contestants. Just a small uppercut adjustment could easily take Bobby far in this tournament, and Will Hailey agrees. He has penned Witt Jr. as his Prince of the Big Poke, and predicts that Bobby takes out the Polar Bear in the finals.
(2) Gunnar Henderson
Bobby Witt Jr. is having one of the best shortstop seasons we have ever seen, and it isn’t even the best shortstop season in his league. Naturally, we have Gunnar Henderson peskily one-upping Witt here once again as he is doing in real baseball. Henderson enters the Derby with more home runs than anyone participating with 28, yet he is middle-of-the-road in betting odds. This hasn’t deterred Jeb, who believes Gunnar walks it off with an oppo-taco while also having a shagging casualty. Unfortunately, you don’t get extra points for that.
(1) Pete Alonso
Look. I certainly did not envision Pete’s walk year going like this. Even Mets fans will be asking tomorrow, “what the hell is a Polar Bear doing in Arlington?” He enters the All-Star Break with just 19 bombs, a great number for most, but well on-pace for a career low. Like it or not, he was hand-picked by Manfred solely to drum up interest for the Derby. However, this is Pete Alonso’s World Series (and by effect, my World Series) we’re talking about. No one has hit more round-trippers than Alonso since his MLB debut, and yes, that’s also including Aaron Judge. He comes into Texas as a two-time Derby champ, looking to join Ken Griffey Jr. as the only other 3-time winner. He is also flying in David Jauss, the pitcher for Alonso’s last Derby win who went viral for his perfect BP pitches. So even with his power stats down, I believe that Big Meat Pete will still ultimately take home the Derby crown purely due to reputation and vibes. Three other Skipper’s View bloggers have also picked Alonso as their projected winner:
Mikey OC: Pete wins over Teoscar Hernandez, because he gets a real BP pitcher.
Brett: I’m going with Pete Alonso. How can I not? He has already won this event 2x and is a hardened veteran when it comes to competing in the derby.
Matt: Pete - the Home Run Derby is his World Series. He’ll go back to being ass after.
So there you have it. This is exactly how the Home Run Derby will play out and surely it won’t be on a Bad Takes Exposed Twitter feed in the near future.
For more All-Star discourse, check out our latest podcast. Let’s get through this break in MLB baseball together.
-KL
Put me down for a Bobby Witt Jr derby champ vote !