The Rays’ Next Breakout Reliever
Unlocking Brandon Eisert’s Potential: What Went Wrong and How the Rays Can Fix It
Opening
The Tampa Bay Rays acquired Brandon Eisert last week, a trade that has received little attention. It's understandable, though, that Eisert was DFA’d by the Blue Jays to open a spot for the signing of Anthony Santander and was later acquired by the Rays for cash considerations. This seems to be a yearly thing with the Rays, though. They go out and acquire an unknown player, and out of nowhere, they become a stud. Of course there's no guarantee Eisert will be this player, but I wouldn't doubt him just yet.
Eister made his debut last year and had very limited action in the majors, posting a 4.05 ERA, 3.67 xERA, and a 4.37 FIP on just 6 and 2/3 innings pitched. Of course, these samples are very limited, but in 53 and 2/3 innings pitched in Triple-A last year, he posted very encouraging results of a 3.86 ERA and 4.09 FIP. The reason I love this movie by the Rays is due to Eisert's ability to produce such an odd release. I'll get into this more later on in the article, but the Rays thrive at using unorthodox deliveries, leading me to believe that he’s their next breakout pitcher.
Delivery Characteristics
Now, the main attraction about Eisert, as I've mentioned previously, is his very deceptive delivery. Eisert is a lefty, stock-slot, tricep-dominant pronator with limited breaking ball capabilities and the ability to turn over his changeup. To start off with his release, Eisert begins with a subtle drift phase that phases into an effective drop phase. This effective drop phase and his outlier 7.3’ of extension are the primary reasons for his ability to produce a deceptively low release height of 5.1’. To add onto this, Eisert produces a horizontal stride phase, which produces a closed landing at delivery, allowing for a very crossbody delivery. This ability gives the illusion to same-handed hitters that he is throwing from behind them, and likewise to opposite-handed hitters being able to use HAA angles to his advantage.
Effects on Fastball
I partly hit on it in the delivery characteristics section, but Eisert's delivery has major effects on his arsenal. The effects of an unorthodox horizontal release point and extremely low release height allow for him to utilize an extremely low VAA of -3.3 on his 4-seam. This VAA would be the lowest in the league! With a VAA this low, his 4-seam should be practically unhittable, but it only registered a .308 AVG, .395 wOBA, .371 xwOBA, and a surprisingly low 23.6 Whiff%. The reason for this is a combination of things, but I think it's because he only targeted the upper thirds of the zone 30% of the time in Triple-A. When he did target the upper third of the zone, he had better results with a .333 AVG, .383 wOBA, .327 xwOBA, and a 30.3 Whiff%.
Eisert shows he has the ability to generate whiffs in thought and in reality, but because of his subpar locations added on with the predictability of his arsenal, he was being hit around. In Triple-A, Eisert threw his 4-seam over 47% of the time, which is too predictable, especially when you factor in that he wasn't utilizing his low VAA abilities to their utmost degree. When he's not located at the top of the zone, he finds himself in a world of trouble because of his below-average velocity of 91.2 MPH. This combination of low velocity, subpar location, and predictability doesn't correlate to success, especially in the big leagues.
I believe the Rays will opt into this otherworldly VAA capability by predominantly targeting the upper third of the zone. This would allow him to use his low VAA and produce the best possible results, especially given his velocity limitations. This pitch is the motor to his ship, and if utilized as it should, it will lead to success.
Usage Changes
In Triple-A in 24’, Eisert had a usage rate of 47% 4-seam, 32% slider, and 20% changeups. What I think the Rays should do for Eisert's usage is to actually utilize his slider most to buy back the usage of his 4-seam. To some, this may seem counterproductive because of Eisert's low VAA on his 4-seam, but his slider was quietly his best pitch. In Triple-A in 24’, this pitch was able to maintain a .148 AVG, .181 wOBA, .235 xwOBA, and a 35.8% Whiff%, but was only thrown 32% of the time. To really maximize his effectiveness, I think the Rays should follow some degree of Eisert's usage from his stint with the Blue Jays, where he threw 41% sliders, 36% 4-seams, and 23% changeups. This would allow him to throw his best results-based pitch more often, while also allowing him to utilize his 4-seam at a more unpredictable rate, which I think will do wonders for his game.
Conclusion
All in all, this acquisition by the Rays is a steal in the making. We know the Rays consistently make unknown names into meaningful contributors with examples like Edwin Uceta just last year, which elevates my belief that Eisert could be that guy as well. With slight changes like playing into the upper thirds of the zone with his 4-seam and a reutilization of his pitches to buy back his 4-seam use, he could take his game to the next level. Some may doubt, but remember, this is the Tampa Bay Rays we're talking about.