Editor’s Note: All my graphics going forward will come directly from Stat Soldier. Go check it out by clicking here.
Opening Remarks
What we are witnessing is one of the most exciting MVP races in recent history. In one corner we have the young stud who is in the middle of back-to-back 30-30 seasons and is one of the most explosive players in Major League Baseball, Pete Crow-Armstrong; in the other corner we have arguably the greatest player in the history of baseball, Shohei Ohtani.
According to FanDuel, Pete Crow-Armstrong is now the favorite to bring home the MVP Award for the National League. PCA is at -165 odds vs. Shohei Ohtani, who is sitting at +140, as I was writing this article at 12:30 am EST this morning. Fanduel isn’t even showing odds for other players, as this is a clear-cut two-man race. For reference, there are 7 players in the American League currently getting listed for odds according to the sportsbook.
When it comes down to MVP voting, there are many factors taken into consideration by the writers voting on it. And yes, I grabbed these parameters listed below from AI.
The BBWAA leaves the exact definition of “Most Valuable” up to each writer, adhering to guidelines established in 1931:
Actual value to the team: Overall offensive and defensive strength.
Number of games played: Durability and availability throughout the regular season.
General character and effort: Sportsmanship, loyalty, disposition, and integrity.
Eligibility parameters: Pitchers and past winners are fully eligible, and voters can select multiple players from the same team.
Regular-season performance only: Postseason statistics and success are completely excluded from consideration.
So in conclusion, before we dive into the debate, we have to give value to durability, eligibility, performance, character, and individual value to one’s team.
The Head-to-Head Argument
Comparing anyone to Shohei Ohtani is a nightmare. The reason is obviously due to his ability to pitch and hit at an elite level. Also a primary driver as to why he has won 3 straight MVP awards and is gunning for his 4th straight, 5th overall since joining Major League Baseball.
My opinion on the matter is we HAVE to take into consideration the pitching and the hitting conversation, as this is the VALUE that Ohtani provides being on the roster. That being said, we will also discuss PCA’s elite defense at a premium position. When it comes to hitting, these two are almost identical, as you can see in the graphic above. Ohtani is leading PCA in a few more categories, but the differences in the numbers between these two are not substantial; in fact, they are in fact minuscule. The only category where PCA is blowing Ohtani out of the water is stolen bases. Ohtani has not hit double digits in the stolen base department yet this season, but I bet he will. PCA is north of 30 already and has a chance to go 40-40 this season. An accomplishment only done by 6 other players in the history of Major League Baseball!
If PCA goes 40-40, there is a massive argument both offensively and defensively on the VALUE he has delivered to a Chicago Cubs team that has been ravaged by injuries to its pitching staff all season long and is still somehow in playoff contention as Chicago sits in the top Wild Card slot.
If Ohtani continues to hit at the rate he has been all season, he will finish with north of 40 home runs and be dangerously close to a .300 hitter. If he does not pitch again, he still will end the season with 85.2 IP, 95 strikeouts, 8 wins, and an additional 3.0 bWAR from his arm alone.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF) - Chicago Cubs
2026:
7.8 bWAR
31 HR
90 R
79 RBI
31 SB
.282 BA
.381 OBP
.555 SLG
.935 OPS
158 OPS+
Crow-Armstrong’s Case:
PCA is arguably the most fun player to watch in baseball. Every time he steps up to the plate, it seems like something electric is about to take place. He is fast, has power, and takes chances on the base paths.
As a defender, PCA is widely considered the best center fielder in baseball; some even say the best overall defender in the league. According to MLB Savant, Crow-Armstrong has the 2nd-most Outs Above Average (OAA) in baseball with 23, only behind Bobby Witt Jr. PCA is leading the league in Runs Prevented with 20! Hard to argue against a player who is sitting at 31-31, leading his pitching-deprived team to the playoffs, and is looked upon by many as the best defender in the game.
Unfortunately for PCA, CHARACTER is taken into consideration by the voting committee for the award, and I have to acknowledge he has had some feisty moments with fans, including this one from a few months ago. I actually loved that he chirped back at the heckling fan, but the committee members’ voting might not.
That being said, he has played in 10 more games than Shohei Ohtani.
Fun Fact:
Only 51 players in the history of baseball have gone 30-30 in a season. PCA has now gone 30-30 in back-to-back seasons.
Shohei Ohtani (DH/P) - Los Angeles Dodgers
2026:
6.9 bWAR
30 HR
82 R
80 RBI
7 SB
.294 BA
.390 OBP
.558 SLG
.949 OPS
162 OPS+
Ohtani’s Case:
I hate to sound like a broken record, but we are talking about Shohei Ohtani. He is 13th overall in batting average, tied-8th for home runs, tied-8th for RBI, 5th in total bases, tied-11th in walks, 5th in on-base percentage, 2nd in slugging percentage, 2nd in OPS, tied-8th in runs…you get my point. He is virtually in the top-10 for every single hitting statistical category in the game of baseball.
The Dodgers are, by record, the 3rd-best team in baseball, have a 9-game lead in the division, and are chasing down a third straight World Series ring. Oh, and what do you know, the Dodgers have won the World Series EVERY YEAR since Ohtani joined them back in 2024.
Oh, and his pitching numbers…
Fun Fact:
Shohei Ohtani has now hit the 30 HR mark this season, making this his 6th season in a row to accomplish that feat. Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez hold the record for the most consecutive seasons to reach the 30 HR mark at 13 seasons.
Prediction
SHOHEI OHTANI WINS HIS 4TH STRAIGHT MVP AWARD, THE 5TH OF HIS HALL OF FAME CAREER!
Understood there will be some feedback that might not be all positive. Listen, I get it that the Dodgers are evil. But the results speak for themselves. We are witnessing baseball immortality in the making. It might be the same MVP again for a 4th straight year, but enjoy the ride of getting to watch Shohei Ohtani in his prime.
“Let them say I lived in the time of Ohtani” - Brett Windisch