The Mets Should Cash in on Matt Sauer Being DFA’d
The Mets Should Cash in on Matt Sauer Being DFA’d
Yes, Another Mets Blog
The Royals just designated Matt Sauer for assignment today (5/20/24). With the current AL Central leaders vying for a division title, there was not a long leash for the 2023 Rule 5 draft pick. The Mets have an opportunity to pounce and strengthen their bullpen even further (in due time). You might ask why I would possibly believe this. Despite the Mets’ pitching development success this year, what would make me think a guy with a higher walk rate than strikeout rate and a 7.71 ERA can have a historic turnaround with the Mets? Luis Severino. That’s it, that’s the whole article. Because, as the old saying goes, one man’s trash is another man’s treasure.
I’m kidding of course. You at least deserve a crazy explanation as to why. First off, yes, I firmly believe there is something to be had with Sauer and that there is reasonable belief the Mets would be interested. Second, no, I do not think I am crazy. Third, yes, Luis Severino actually is a big reason why. Fourth, no, it is not because Sevvy was one of the worst pitchers in the league last year.
Okay, okay, I’ll tell you why Luis Severino is a big part of this. His 4-seam fastball (FF) and his sinker (SI) are so close to Sauer’s. I would say they are nearly identical, but the slightest differences can create a gap in stuff grades so I won’t say that. The notable discrepancy in their specs is the extension. Sauer extends 2-3 inches farther down the mound than Severino does. That does make a difference. Severino’s FF and SI grade out just below average at 96 and 93 respectively which he locates well. Sauer’s fastballs grade out worse at 89 and 84. A comparison of both their FF and SI specs is below, courtesy of Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard v6. Sauer has not pitched much. It is a small sample and the control has been bad. If the Mets wanted to shorten him a bit and bring him to that 6.3 extension area, the specs will change. They could get better or worse but we wouldn’t know until it is tested out. What I do know right now is that there is a rookie relief pitcher that has struggled with command and has very similar pitches to a successful starting veteran on the Mets. Working with the Mets and having Sevvy in his corner could help Sauer pitch better with what he has and/or have more confidence.
Another difference is the VAA (Fangraphs VAA by Alex Chamberlain) on his SI. It is much different than Severino’s. Sauer gets a little more ride and the VAA shows the sinker would play up in the zone more than it might down in the zone. Sauer’s -5.1 degree VAA vs Severino’s -5.8 degree VAA on SI is telling. The good thing is this is exactly what he does. The results on the SI have been positive so far so there is not too much reason to believe things need to change. Sauer plays to the specs of his sinker. If he threw it more down in the zone, it probably gets hit worse. Instead, he keeps it up and into righties while throwing it to righties 75.86% of the time.
These are the main reasons I think command is a key to Sauer being serviceable. His FF gets killed but otherwise, nothing else gets damaged that badly. If he can start commanding the FF better, or just move away from it, that alone could help him tremendously. The reality is that when he gets behind in counts, he forces the FF and becomes very predictable. Below is a flow chart of Sauer’s pitches in each count. The thicker the line, the more he pitches in those counts. It is very clear how much Sauer is throwing his worst pitch (FF) behind in the count without spreading out his usage. He is not getting into 3-ball counts all the time or even the majority of the time, but when he does, the FF is coming. I can keep going on with reasons why the FF is his worst pitch and continuing on with why it is hurting him but I think you get the point.
Sauer has been a starter his whole career until 2024 when he must be in MLB or offered back to the Yankees after he was selected in the Rule 5 Draft back in December. He is not a power pitcher but he was successful in the minors by mixing his offerings. If he is going to stay a reliever, he won’t be successful by being a two-pitch power guy. He still needs to mix and that leads to my next point.
His only plus pitch is the slider (SL) at 122. The results have not been good and he does not get whiffs on it. As a reliever, he is going to need at least one pitch he can get swing and miss on. Right now he does not and I have an idea to get him there. I think he needs to split the current slider into two pitches. The present shape of the slider is good and if he threw it harder, he would have an above-average cutter (FC). Everything about the slider looks more like a cutter profile except for the tilt.
If he starts throwing a real in between 12:00 and 12:45 tilt, he should get more ride on it and likely lose some horizontal break, but stay in a fine spot. He gets above-average ride on his SI and SL so I believe the FC would as well. The key would be to throw it harder. It would bridge a gap to a slower SL as well. Hypothetically, having a 95 mph FF and SI, an 88-92 mph FC and an 84-86 mph SL would complete his repertoire along with his 85 mph splitter (FS) and 82 mph curveball (CU).
Considering the FF command is arguably the worst of all his pitches, changing his usage to SI and FC followed by a healthy mix of his SL, CU and FS allows him to either be a starter, or an effective reliever nonetheless. There is a whole arsenal to work with that allows the Mets to build a big league reliever in multiple ways. The only hiccup would be that they likely cannot send him down to the pitching lab unless he gets hurt. He probably wouldn’t clear waivers and if offered back to the Yankees for $50k (per the Rule 5 Draft policies), they would probably accept. Regardless, I see this as a worthwhile gamble to take for the Mets. Worst case scenario they DFA him. Best case scenario is we build up a good relief pitcher with years of team control or trade him at the deadline for a prospect return that literally would not be possible without acquiring him right now.