The Luis Robert Jr. Enigma.
Luis Robert Jr. went from a 38-home run, 20 stolen base season to two consecutive seasons with an OPS below .660. Will we ever see the Cuban star relive the highs of his 2022 campaign?
From 2021 to 2023, Luis Robert Jr. looked like a future superstar in the making. The Cuban flashed his elite speed, defense and power on a consistent basis, and he was the main topic in trade discussions. He was one of the few, if not only bright spots on the Chicago White Sox teams throughout this three-year period.
2021: Flashes of brilliance from the Guantanamo Bay boy.
From 2021 to 2023, Luis Robert Jr. looked like a future superstar in the making. The Cuban flashed his elite speed, defense and power on a consistent basis, and he was the main topic in trade discussions. He was one of the few, if not only bright spots on the Chicago White Sox teams throughout this three-year period.
2021 was his first, real breakout year. In 68 games, Robert played to a .338/.378/.567 slash line, hit 13 home runs and stole six bases while driving in 43 runners. He struggled with injuries, but was on pace for a 25/25 season with 100+ RBI’s. Not only that, he showed improvements - he managed to decrease his K% from 32.2% in his rookie year to 20.6%, paired it with that .338 BA and underlying metrics you’d love to see from any 23-year old outfielder. He ranked among the best in:
xBA (.307)
xSLG (.551)
Barrel% (12.5%)
Hard-Hit% (45.1%)
LA Sweet-Spot% (39.4%)
OAA (5)
Combine this with above-average arm strength and sprint speed, and you might have yourself a perenial All-Star for years to come. There were some (very obvious) red flags, but were ignored because of his elite performance.
2023: Nothing but Missiles from Cuba
I purposefully skipped 2022. Not because it was bad, but because it wasn’t anything special - a .284 average and .746 OPS with 12 home runs and 11 stolen bases is solid, but not what people were expecting from him after his stellar 2021. But it was another season filled with small, hampering injuries, that likely had an impact on his performance.
However, 2023 was his true breakout year.
Despite the Chicago White Soxw finishing 61-101, Luis Robert Jr got as close to superstardom as you could possibly get. He stayed healthy, was an offensive threat all while being one of the best defenders in baseball. He played a total of 145 games to a .264/.315/.542 slash line and .854 OPS, but it’s the rest of his numbers that really make him stand out:
38 Home Runs - 3rd most in American League.
80 RBI & 90 Runs Socred - 25% of the 2023 White Sox went through Luis Robert Jr.
20 Stolen Bases - T-11th in American League, most on team.
128 wrc+ - 8th best in American League.
.518 xSLG - 92nd percentile.
15.4% Barrel% - 93rd percentile
75.9 MPH avg. Bat Speed - 94th percentile.
13 OAA - 97th percentile.
28.7 ft/s Sprint Speed - 84th percentile.
4.9 WAR
It looked like, finally, everything was clicking. He was hitting the ball hard, getting the right launch angles and showing off his impressive glove, eventually resulting in his first All-Star selection, the CF Silver Slugger award and he even got some MVP votes. He was often mentioned as the main trade target for contending teams, but no real offer was submitted, simply because the White Sox wanted a fortune for him, and rightfully so.
However, the red flags have always been present, and painfully obvious:
40.5% Chase% - 3rd percentile.
45.7% Chase Contact% - 57.6% MLB Average.
33.5% Whiff% - 10th percentile.
28.9% K% - 14th percentile.
5.0% BB% - 7th percentile.
Whiff% over 39% on breaking & offspeed pitches.
.228 & .220 BA v breaking & offspeed pitches.
However, quite reminiscent of Javier Baéz’s peak, no one cares about poor underlying metrics if you’re putting up fantastic numbers and are a marketable, young player. So no one cared.
However, things went downhill, and they went downhill fast.
2024: The Cuban Collapse
2024 was the year where everything that could’ve gone wrong, went wrong. Luis Robert Jr was nothing but a shell of his 2023 self, eventually finishing the season with a .244/.278/.379 slash line and .657 OPS, with 14 home runs and 23 stolen bases in 100 games.
It was just a year of struggles for Robert. Multiple IL-stints and being part of one of the worst teams in baseball history affected him. There was nothing to play for. Nobody to play for. And there’s a big chance he would’ve had a 20/30 season had he played 145 games like the year before.
However, the advanced metrics became even worse:
.143 BA & .138 xBA against offspeed pitches.
PullAIR% dropped from elite 24.5% to 16.6%.
Chase Contact% dropped from 45.7% to 41.6%.
Z-Contact% dropped from below-average 78.6% to 76.6%.
Barrel% dropped by 5.5%
K% went up to 33.2% - a 4.6% increase.
Whiff% went up to 36.1% - a 2.6% increase.
He still ran above-average exit velocities, but that was about it. His plate discipline had not improved, but worsened, and pitcher just didn’t feel the need to challenge him inside the zone. They know how dangerous he can be inside, but why throw it there if you know he’s going to chase a changeup anyway?
Poor plate discipline only works for so long.
2025: Worse but better?
And now, in 2025, the Luis Robert Jr. story really takes a turn. At the time of writing, Robert has played 65 games to a .190/.275/.305 slash line and .580 OPS, with six home runs and 22 stolen bases - good for 3rd most in baseball.
He’s been bad. You could even say awful. But this is where the beauty of the game really shines. He’s doign worse, but the processes are better. He’s improving on advanced metrics across the board:
19.9% PullAIR% is up 3.3% from 2024.
32% Chase% is a career-best by over 3.5%.
46.3% Chase Contact% is still bad, but better than the 45.3% of his breakout 2023.
32.4% Whiff% is a 3.7% decrease and his best since 2022.
His 9.8% BB% is a career-best, more than double of his previous best.
So, in fairness to him, the processes have been better than the resutls so far. When looking at his bat tracking metrics, we find that he's really tinkering with his stance and positioning in order to find something that works. His intercept point is at 0.7, very similar to the -0.9 it was in 2023. However, he has opened his stance more, going from 11 degrees in 2023 to 22 degrees in 2025. His swing path itself is actually great - his 54.2% Ideal Attack Angle% is the best of his career, and well above-average compared to the rest of the leauge.
Another interesting change is his depth in the bxo. 31.7 inches is quite deep compared to the MLB average of 27.8%, and it’s the deepest he’s stood in the box in his career - based on publicly available data, obviously. You could argue this gives him more time to recognize pitches and decrease his chase%, but it also allows him less time to ‘get out in front’ and generate his power from those swings. However, in his case, this might not be a bad thing. His peak 2023 campaign was, bat-tracking wise, very similar to today’s metrics, bar the obvious change in stance angle.
And for once, you could argue he’s actually getting quite unlucky:
.190 BA → .234 xBA
.303 SLG → .396 SLG
.260 wOBA → .312 xwOBA
It still wouldn’t put him near his 2023 levels of performance, but it would make him an above-average player. Throughout the slumps and prolonged struggles at the plate, he has remained one of the best defenders in his position. And this, once again, rings true for his 2025 campaign so far with 2 OAA, 82nd percentile arm value and elite sprint speed.
It’s still an enticing set of raw tools for teams looking to improve at the trade deadline, and there might not be a better opportunity to buy low on a 25/25 talent than there is today with Robert Jr. It’s not an isolated case either: Plenty of young elite defensive centerfielders have hit their offensive peak early, followed by decreased production and struggles at the plate, and they all have one thing in common: An expansive approach that only works for so long. Michael Harris II, Julio Rodriguez é Luis Robert Jr.
Let’s see what the rest of the season brings for him, and if his implemented changes will result in better results post All-Star break.
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