The Love/Mid/Hate Of The Alex Bregman Deal
A Blog By Dean
Last night, Alex Bregman signed a three-year $120 million deal with the Boston Red Sox. There are opt-outs after the first two seasons, and some of the money is deferred. Red Sox fans, reasonably, were very excited last night. But I am old enough to remember when Trevor Story signed a few years ago, so I am holding any declaration of “WE ARE BACK” for now.
In early December, I wrote a blog post about how Alex Bregman was getting greedy and wanted over $200 million. The Astros offered him a very fair contract based on the bWAR he had produced the previous few seasons. He wanted more and played the market. The market said. “We don’t want to give you that much.” The Tigers did come close, but Bregman wants to go rake at Fenway.
In that blog, I pointed out my biggest worry for Alex Bregman. Bregman had nine career lows in 2024 (excluding 2016, 2020, and 2021). In those seasons, he played under 100 games. The categories in which he reached career lows are as follows:
Runs (R)
Walks (BB)
On-Base Percentage (OBP)
On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS)
OPS+
Revised On-Base Average (rOBA)
Rbat+
Hit By Pitch (HBP)
Does that mean I hate the Bregman deal? Not necessarily. Am I ready to declare that the Red Sox are making the playoffs and John Henry is back? Nope.
Here is what I love, what I am mid about, and what I don’t love about this deal….
What I Love
He’s a winner
You can not coach playing on the biggest stages. You either live it or you don’t. If you do, then you have experience that is invaluable. Bregman has lived the big stage, something most of the Red Sox players right now can not relate to. That is huge.
He rakes at Fenway.
Peep this great post by Kick Dirt.
Story and Bregman contracts would end at the same time.
If both Bregman and Story decline to opt-out, they will finish their Boston careers around the same time. Story’s contract is a little wonky. If he opts out after this year (he won’t), the Red Sox could use an opt-in, and he gains an extra year in 2028. I don’t see that happening. So, both will finish after the 2027 season.
This will: 1. Free up a bunch of money, and 2. Free up space for the young guns.
What I Am Mid About
Personally, I like the idea of bringing a player up in their natural position and having them grow. To me, Kristian Campbell should be the second basemen of the future. He should come up at 2B and develop there.
We are being told that Alex Bregman will be playing 2B. So, I am not thrilled about that. However, things could change so I am not going to overreact at this moment.
I hate signing players in their 30s to big contracts.
Bregman turns 31 at the start of the season. He has shown signs of regression already. I just hope that does not continue.
Structure Of His Contract
To me, it is pretty clear that Alex Bregman is hoping to recreate his current numbers at Fenway over a full season. If so, he would then opt out and go try and get a bigger deal. Not necessarily complaining about that, but I honestly would have been more okay with just giving him the three year deal and rolling the dice.
What I Don’t Love
The regression in important stats that I previously mentioned up top.
Look, I am just simply looking at the numbers. He dropped in major categories, and I think overlooking that entirely is ignorant.
$40 million a year.
We don’t know what the deferrals are, but I still don’t love $40 million a year. Let me be clear, I am not COMPLAINING about the Red Sox spending money. I am simply just pointing out that it is a very high AAV. It is tied for the 6th highest ever.
That is all I got for right now. I do not want to come off as a negative nancy. I almost cried when they locked up Rafael Devers long term. I just have not gotten over the Trevor Story contract (deep down I still think of Pablo Sandoval and Carl Crawford as well.)
If you haven’t already, please consider subscribing below! It is free, but if you choose a paid subscription just know that all the money goes towards our great writers! Make sure to check them out.
Also, I am working on building up a YouTube channel. Will mostly be baseball history and some Red Sox musings. Check it out below!