The Juan Soto World Series: Mets Vs. Yankees
Who will be crowned the winner of this unique Subway Series
Well the World Series has concluded. The Los Angeles Dodgers take down Juan Soto’s Yankees in five games. A noble effort by both the Mets and Yankees, but the fearsome titans of the west were dominant in October. Even though neither New York teams won the actual World Series, they face off in a new battle, the Juan Soto World Series. As soon as the Fall Classic ended, the conversation was all Soto. It’s widely regarded to be Mets vs. Yankees for the generational talent and future hall of famer. Many people think it’s a landslide in the Yankees favor. Let’s see how the teams stack up against each other…without Juan Soto.
Payroll
Considering the (somehow) widespread misconception about the Mets’ financial situation, I am going to lead us off with payroll. I’ll make this quick since some people have decided to not believe me on X when I say it. The Mets have substantially more projected luxury tax payroll space to spend than the Yankees over the next four years. Here are the screenshots of the Mets and Yankees’ payroll pages via Fangraphs.
Mets Luxury Tax Payroll:
Yankees Luxury Tax Payroll:
As you can clearly see, the Mets projected luxury tax payroll for 2025 is currently $70 million less than the Yankees. This is largely due to massive average annual values (AAV) of $25 million + to four players. Aaron Judge ($40 million), Gerrit Cole ($36 million), Carlos Rodon ($27 million) and Giancarlo Stanton ($25 million). They also have two players with at least $15 million AAV, Marcus Stroman ($18.5 million) and DJ LeMahieu ($15 million). Stroman will be a free agent after the 2025 season.
Francisco Lindor ($31.9 million) is the only Mets player with an AAV over $25 million. The Mets have four other players with at least a $15 million AAV contract. Brandon Nimmo ($20.25 million), Starling Marte ($19.5 million) Edwin Diaz ($18.6 million) and Kodai Senga ($15 million).
As you can see from the figures above, these players are considered “AAVs for players with guaranteed contracts (does not include players no longer on 40-man roster)”. In this section alone, the Yankees have committed $161.5 million compared to the Mets’ $117.75 million.
Post 2025 season, from 2026 through 2028, the Mets are projected to have at least $39 million more in luxury tax space than the Yankees.
People think because the Mets had a payroll and luxury tax payroll of over $358 million, they do not have money to spend in this upcoming offseason. In reality, the Mets had over $180 million coming off the books after the 2024 season and far more flexibility than the Yankees to offer Juan Soto the largest (and longest) contract of any team.
Juan Soto is represented by Scott Boras, who is notorious for getting his players the biggest contracts possible. If a player hires Scott Boras as their agent, it’s perceived that getting the largest contract is the most important factor to their free agency. The Mets have more luxury tax payroll space, the richest owner in MLB, an owner that is ready to spend to win, and a free agent unlike one we have ever seen, or maybe ever will see. Steve Cohen will not be outbid on Juan Soto, no other way to put it.
Lineup
Starting on the free agent side of things, Gleyber Torres, Anthony Rizzo and Alex Verdugo are on expiring contracts that don’t figure to return with the team. Among the Mets free agents are former University of Florida teammates Pete Alonso and Harrison Bader who are not expected to return if the Mets sign Soto. Jose Iglesias, Jesse Winker and J.D. Martinez are also free agents that are possibilities to return to the team.
Flat out, the Mets have a better lineup, and more stability in their lineup long term. No, the Mets don’t have a player like Aaron Judge. But what offensive stability do the Yankees have behind Judge? Stanton? The player many Yankees fans wanted off the team before he started hitting home runs left and right in the playoffs? Jazz Chisholm Jr. is a young star that has played great for the Yankees and Anthony Volpe is a promising young shortstop. Austin Wells looked great for a portion of the season and was elite defensively as well. He matches up almost identically to Francisco Alvarez. The Yankees have five spots in their lineup comfortably filled next season. Jasson Dominguez is expected to be an opening day starter filling a sixth lineup position. After that, the Yankees need to fill first base, second base, and an outfield spot assuming Jazz Chisholm plays third base.
Despite the Mets’ free agents, they comfortably have seven lineup spots filled. Lindor, Nimmo, McNeil and Marte are cornerstones of the team. Mark Vientos and Francisco Alvarez are young stars that equate to Volpe and Wells. Tyrone Taylor may not be the first option to be a starter in the outfield but he’s a great defender with a strong arm.
The Yankees have utility man Oswaldo Cabrera and Ben Rice that have struggled in their time with the big league team. Oswald Peraza and Jorbit Vivas have struggled in AAA while Everson Pereira and Caleb Durbin had good seasons. Spencer Jones, the Yankees’ premier prospect, pummeled AA pitching this year and looks to make the MLB roster at some point next year.
Brett Baty looks to have a Mark Vientos-esque turnaround but has really struggled offensively in his time with the Mets. However he did provide above average defense this year and has potential defensive value. Luisangel Acuna struggled in AAA but tore up big league pitching in a small sample while Francisco Lindor was injured. Acuna has a compelling argument to start the year with the Mets but depending on how spring training goes, I expect him to start the year in AAA. He provides great depth and has shown he can handle a big league environment, which means a lot. Drew Gilbert and Ronny Mauricio are on the cusp of breaking through to the show while Jett Williams and Ryan Clifford might make appearances at some point later in the year.
The only place the Mets lack compared to the Yankees regarding the lineup is thump. Between Judge and Stanton, it’s impossible to compete from a power standpoint. The Mets have a more solidified lineup, less question marks & a greater abundance of youth and depth. There is no doubt the Mets have the better overall lineup.
Competitive Outlook
Juan Soto made it clear after the Yankees' game five loss to the Dodgers that concluded the World Series that being part of a winning team is important to him. You can read more about that in Phillip Martinez’s article on SNY here.
Ultimately, the Yankees made the World Series and the Mets did not. Make whatever excuse you want that the Yankees would not have made it without Juan Soto, that the Yankees had a cakewalk to the World Series (I personally don’t believe in a cakewalk to the World Series), that they lost to the Dodgers in five games, the Mets won more games against the Dodgers, or that the Mets would have beat the Yankees in the World Series. The only thing that matters in that sense is that the Yankees did make the World Series. That’s something I will NOT try to take away from the Yankees fanbase. There’s nothing anyone can do about it, the postseason is now done and over with, it’s not worth arguing over in my opinion.
What I am going to focus on is future outlook. If Juan Soto signed with a team outside of New York, I, and I think many others would be concerned about how the Yankees will fill the void left by him. They would need to make multiple acquisitions and many people may not feel confident in their ability to return to the postseason. While the Mets are potentially losing their two best starters, both were acquired last offseason and the Mets have shown a clear capability to develop and reinvent MLB pitchers.
People can bring up the prestige and legacy of the Yankees all they want. They were overmatched by the Dodgers. It’s clear to me that without Juan Soto on either roster, the Mets are the better team and more likely to be perennial postseason attendees. Juan Soto has already won a World Series in 2019, he knows how that feels and what winning tastes like. With the Mets, he has a better probability to win, and win multiple times.
The Juan Soto World Series Winner (On Paper)
The three big factors, as I see them, are finances (both for the player and team), lineup stability, and competitive outlook. From my perspective, the Mets sweep the Yankees in all three categories. The emphasis on these factors is because Juan Soto is most likely looking to sign a contract for the rest of his career. And why not? He is a generational talent and on track to be a hall of famer. Teams will be willing to sign him until he is 40 years old.
Being able to sign with a team for the rest of your career and know that there will be a stable core of players around you is an important thing. Lindor and Nimmo will be signed through at least 2030. Diaz and Senga through at least 2027. The depth of the farm system and abundance of young, promising players about to reach the big league level provides a refreshing promise of sustainable success. While the Yankees have similar players in the same situation, they have less financial flexibility and lack the youthful depth of the Mets.
It’s well known that Soto loves New York and enjoyed his time in the Bronx. However, he has his own connections to the Mets in the form of Starling Marte. Soto and Marte have a close and long standing relationship. Marte is signed through the 2025 season and it’s hard to believe that they won’t have any conversations with Soto this winter. The relevance of their relationship in regards to Soto’s free agency remains to be seen. I’m just saying it could be a factor.
For the most part, I think the contract offers will be matched between the Mets and Yankees. That’s why I put an emphasis on explaining the other factors. If one team goes above and beyond in their offer to Soto, it will almost certainly be the Mets. All other factors included, the Mets are the more promising team. On paper, the Mets win the Juan Soto World Series in a sweep of the Yankees. However, on paper ≠ reality. The World Series is over and it’s time for the Juan Soto World Series to commence.
Let me know your thoughts in the comments or let me hear it on X/Twitter @McLovinOC8