We are watching the end of Jose Altuve.
Today, I went and checked the website I built for my brand new analytics. BBI, BBI+, and xBBI. I am still working on it with my friend, so I am not ready to put it out to the public, but I noticed how low Jose Altuve was in three main categories. They are as follows.
6th Worst in BBI
3rd Worst in BBI+
2nd Worst in xBBI
For those of you who have not seen my new analytics before, I will post a breakdown of what stats each uses below.
I won’t go into the nitty gritty on the formula, but it ends up being scaled 0-10. Needless to say, Jose Altuve is doing really bad.
Breakdown
José Altuve’s offensive decline backed by the numbers. His BBI (raw production) has plummeted to a 1.95 on the 0–10 scale, while his ABBI, which adjusts for sample size, barely lifts him to a 2.60. His BBI+, a more complete view of his offensive profile including contact and plate discipline, sits at just 2.59—proof that even his underlying approach isn’t salvaging his value. And xBBI, which isolates swing quality and removes all result-based bias, clocks in at a dismal 2.58. That means he’s not just unlucky—he’s getting beat at the point of contact. With a 3rd percentile exit velocity, 15th percentile barrel rate, and 1st percentile sweet spot %, it’s clear: Altuve’s once-elite bat has lost its edge.
The 2025 season has been a stark contrast to Altuve’s illustrious career. Through 47 games, his performance has declined significantly compared to his 2024 season, where he played 153 games with a .295 batting average, .350 on-base percentage (OBP), .439 slugging percentage (SLG), and an OPS of .790, contributing a 3.4 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). In 2025, his numbers tell a different story, as shown in the table below
The numbers paint a clear picture José Altuve is no longer the player he once was. His batting average has dropped by 5.7%, his OPS is down 10.4%, and his home run total has fallen from 20 to just 4. He currently holds a -0.9 WAR, meaning he’s providing less value than a replacement-level player. His 18.4% strikeout rate is the worst of his career, and his 13% line drive rate is a new low. Even his 2.2% home run rate is the lowest since 2018.
He has had some high and low moments this season. On April 3, Altuve struck out five times in a single game for the first time in his career. On May 9, he did reach a milestone, becoming the fourth Astro with 700 career extra-base hits, joining Biggio, Bagwell, and Berkman.
As Robert Land noted on X, it’s a major drop:
“-0.9 WAR, 18.4% K%, 13% Line Drive %, 2.2% HR %, .648 OPS. He makes $33M the next 3 years & $13M the following 2. Devastating for Astros cap.”
Why Is This Happening?
Age is the most obvious factor. At 35, bat speed, power, and reaction time tend to fade. His bat speed has dropped at least 1 MPH each of the last three years, his swing rate in the heart of the zone has dropped from 81% to 50%, and his pull-side ground ball rate has surged from 51% to 71%—all signs of reduced effectiveness at the plate.
Position change could also be a factor. The Astros moved Altuve to left field for 2025 after his -9 Outs Above Averageat second base in 2024, the second-worst in MLB at his position. Though he handled the spring transition well, adjusting to a new role may be impacting his overall play.
Final Thoughts
Jose Altuve will probably get into the Hall of Fame and I now believe we are entering the point of his career where fans of his wish he hung it up a year ago. In terms of milestones, I suppose he is chasing 2,500 hits, but I don’t think that is worth sacrificing his over .300 batting average.
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BBI™, ABBI™, and BBI+™ are original analytics created by Dean Ciriaco.
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Am I petty for not hating the fact he’s significantly declining