The Toronto Blue Jays have performed exceptionally well throughout the first 75% of the 2025 season. The Jays are currently in first place in the AL East (a comfortable 4.0 games ahead of the second-place Red Sox and 6.5 games ahead of the third-place Yankees) and have the best record in the American League. With an offense led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Alejandro Kirk, Bo Bichette, George Springer, and surprise standout Ernie Clement, it appears that 2025 could be the Blue Jays' chance to win their 3rd World Series title in franchise history, right?
I am not as bullish on the 2025 Toronto Blue Jays as some others seem to be. The Jays' record is impressive; however, their run differential is only +44, the worst amongst the six division leaders in the MLB. Additionally, an MLB team has not won a World Series with a regular season win differential below +100 since the 2015 Kansas City Royals, and a team with a run differential below +50 hasn’t won it since the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals. Obviously, run differential isn’t the end-all-be-all when it comes to analyzing a team’s performance, as actually winning games is far more important than the fashion in which you do so; yet, it can be used as an indicator for if a team will experience sustained success. Let’s take a look at the two World Series winning teams I mentioned before: The 2006 Cardinals’ rotation was led by star Chris Carpenter in a season in which he finished 3rd in Cy Young voting and had the backing of an above-average bullpen consisting of Jason Isringhausen and Adam Wainwright. The 2015 Royals had one of the best bullpens of all time, with Greg Holland and Wade Davis sharing closer duties while Kelvin Herrera, Ryan Madson, and Franklin Morales rounded out the rest of the bullpen. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, they do not have what these teams had.
While the Jays' offense is certainly solid, it is not good enough to make up for their lackluster pitching rotation in the long term. While the team’s top three pitchers (Kevin Gausman, Eric Lauer, and José Berríos) have been pretty good this season, holding a combined 3.88 FIP, and the remainder of the rotation (Chris Bassitt, Bowden Francis, and Max Scherzer) has been far from atrocious, they lack a true ace. Oftentimes a team’s bullpen can make up for their lack of elite starting pitching; however, that is not the case for the 2025 Blue Jays. In fact, their bullpen represents the weakest aspect of their entire team. Of their relief pitchers (minimum 40.0 IP), nobody has an ERA below 3.15 or a WHIP below 1.000. The Jays’ closer, Jeff Hoffman (signed a 3-year deal with Toronto last season coming off an All-Star season), has been plain bad this season. He has saved just 26 games this season and blown a career-high 5 saves already this season. Hoffman had blown only 6 games in his entire career prior to joining the Jays. Additionally, his ERA+ has fallen below 100 for the first time in his career since the COVID-shortened 2020 season.
The Blue Jays are currently the favorite to win the AL East and have the 7th-best odds to win the World Series. The Blue Jays are certainly a good team with a potent offense; however, I don’t believe the team will be a threat to win the World Series or the American League given the state of their starting rotation and bullpen.
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Jays run differential was off the charts a couple years ago & they didn't even make the playoffs lol
However, the lack of an actual 'closer' could be a serious issue.