Tarik Skubal's Future with Detroit
Why the Tigers need to hold onto their current ace
The Detroit Tigers selected Tarik Skubal with the 255th overall pick in the ninth round of the 2018 MLB draft. He agreed to a $350,000 signing bonus. Drafted out of Seattle University, the only Division I school to offer him a scholarship; and missing most of 2016 and all of 2017 due to Tommy John surgery, it was safe to say the Tigers were taking a chance on the left-handed pitcher. Fast forward seven years and it’s one of the best draft picks the organization has ever made. Now the Tigers are faced with a more impactful decision heading into Skubal’s final year of arbitration. Do they pay up and make him a Tiger for life or let him walk?
Current Contract Details
Tarik Skubal signed a 1 year, $10.15 million (all guaranteed) contract with the Tigers before the 2025 season, avoiding arbitration. After winning the Cy Young in 2024, Detroit was lucky Skubal agreed to it rather than going to an arbitration hearing that would determine his salary for the upcoming season. Skubal is eligible for salary arbitration one final time after this season before becoming a free agent heading into the 2027 season. However, with the way he’s pitched since the start of last season, there’s a real chance he declines arbitration and seek a new contract, taking advantage of his value while it’s peaking.
Future Value
Tarik Skubal is estimated to get somewhere near a 10 year, $400 million contract. He would become the first pitcher ever to cross that monetary threshold. I believe he’s worth it. Since the start of 2024, no pitcher has provided more value to their team. Skubal leads the league in fWAR at 9.7 over that span. Second place is at 8.9. He’s also pitched the second most innings and has the fourth best K/9. Elite durability and effectiveness are hard to come by in starters. Skubal has expressed interest staying with the Tigers, the team who took a chance on him. I think if Detroit makes a deep postseason run this season with a potential back-to-back Cy Young winner at the helm, then their front office has no choice but to pay Skubal what he’s worth. Not to mention, this team is on an upward trajectory with several top hitting prospects on the way. All this future Tigers team would be missing is their certified ace locking down the front of the rotation for the next decade.
Decision Time
If I’m the Detroit Tigers, I give Tarik Skubal the record setting contract. Prove to the rest of the players in the organization that this front office wants to win and stay competitive for years to come. Don’t wait until late in the offseason, otherwise Skubal’s agent will advise him to shop the open market. Get the deal done towards the end of this season or immediately following the season’s close. Show him what he’s worth, keep the winning culture in Detroit that fans have been begging for, make it a desirable destination for other free agents to join, and good things will come.
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