Tarik Skubal Has Reached Another Level Of Dominance

A look into Tarik Skubal's season

Tarik Skubal was arguably the best pitcher in baseball last year, and now it’s not even a discussion. The Tigers ace has reached a new level of dominance level in the 2025 season. The 28 year old southpaw is flashing signs of dominance that we don’t see very often. On May 25 he tossed a complete game shutout on 94 pitches, 3 hits, & 13 strikeouts. An outing which set the record for most strikeouts in a “Maddux” in MLB history. Not to mention the final pitch of the game was 102.6 MPH, the hardest pitch by a Starting Pitching in the 9th inning or later in the pitch tracking era, as well in his career. Now, let’s take a look into just how good Skubal has been so far in 2025 and how he got here.

2024 Numbers 

Skubal (alongside Chris Sale) became the first pitcher to win a Triple Crown since 2011, when Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw accomplished the feat in both the AL and NL. However, it's worth noting Shane Bieber won the AL Triple Crown in 2020 during the shortened 60 game season. The 9th round product out of Seattle University officially became the ace of the Tigers and helped them go on an unprecedented run in the 2nd half, leading to an ALDS appearance. After the 2024 season Skubal solidified himself as one of the best pitchers alive, and was widely ranked as the best pitcher heading into 2025.

31 G | 18-4 W/L | 6.4 bWAR | 192 IP | 2.39 ERA | 2.49 FIP | 30.3 K% | 4.6 BB%

2025 Numbers

Skubal hasn’t just picked right up from his 2024 form, he’s built off it. Every single stat I have listed is better (excluding accumulation numbers). The FIP suggests he’s pitching better than his ERA which is already top 10 in baseball. He’s currently in a 11 game stretch where he’s struck out 95 to only 3 walks, creating a ridiculous 31.6 K/BB ratio. In this stretch which spans 72.2 IP, the ERA is 1.61. Even with these excellent numbers, they don’t tell the full story of how much he’s improved from 2024.

13 G | 6-2 W/L | 3.1 bWAR | 83.1 IP | 2.16 ERA | 1.84 FIP | 33.4 K% | 2.2 BB%

Stuff

There have been some very large improvements to Skubal’s overall stuff comparing it to last season. The fastball which averaged 96.9 MPH in 2024, is up almost a full tick to 97.7 MPH. Along with the increased velocity, he gained another inch of IVB to put the total at 17.6 to go along with 4.1 inches of Horizontal Break. The changes to the fastball that Skubal has made this year brought the pitch from 100 tjStuff+ in 2024 all the way to 110 tjStuff+. For those not familiar with this stuff model, that 10 point jump is a full standard deviation.

As you can see in the plot below, it wasn’t just the fastball that increased in tjStuff+ and velocity, so did the changeup, sinker, and slider. His knuckle curve increased by 2.5 MPH, but grades out worse this year. Although that isn’t an issue because it’s only a pitch he’s throwing 2.1% of the time year. Skubal’s arsenal as a whole is grading out better than it last year with the tjStuff+ increasing from 103 to 108.

We are seeing the Stuff get the results needed as well. His fastball run value is 99th percentile, Breaking Run Value is 75th percentile, and Offspeed Run Value is 100th percentile. Combining all of them together you get a 27 overall Run Value, which is the best in baseball by a good margin.

Elite K & BB Numbers

Last year Skubal has the 2nd best strikeout rate in all of baseball to pair with his elite command. Combining those together he had a phenomenal 25.6 K-BB%, only 0.1% behind Chris Sale for the best mark in all of Major League Baseball. This year he’s striking batters 3.1% of the time more, and he cut the walk rate down by 2.4%. By doing so he owns a 15 K/BB ratio, by far the best mark baseball with the second best being 7.30 by Nathan Eovaldi. Skubal’s K/BB ratio isn’t just elite, it has the chance to be historic. In Major League history there is only 1 time a pitcher has thrown 100 innings and had better than a 12 K/BB ratio, coming from Clayton Kershaw in 2016.

Every single time Skubal toes the rubber the Tigers & opposing teams know he is going to dominate. Even in games where his strikeouts are down he’s not giving out any free passes. The command is also backed up by the advanced metrics with a 110 Location+ which ranks 10th best among starters this year. Pair that with an opponents xBA of .214 and he’s going to continue to prevent runs.

Final Thoughts

The best pitcher in baseball isn’t a debate in 2025, that title belongs to Tarik Skubal. With the increased Stuff, Velocity, Strikeouts, & better walk numbers Skubal has reached a level of dominance we don’t see frequently. Skubal is blossoming into one of the best pitchers we’ve seen in a while. The dominance he’s had is already up there with the names of Jacob deGrom, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, & Max Scherzer. That’s not a stretch to say so either when he’s on pace for 8.4 fWAR, which would rank 4th best among a pitcher in a single season since 2010. When the Tigers Ace is on the mound, you should be tuned in.

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