Surviving Another Week of Bad Beats
Greg's Weekly Wager Recap 4/28 - 5/4
For those who missed last week’s article, my record was 4-4, and I ultimately lost 0.61 units. However, despite that loss, I was able to bounce back this week and fend off a series of bad beats and ultimately turn a profit. I break it down day by day below:
MONDAY (0-1, -1.0u)
Yankees ML (-120, 1u) LOSS
It’s déjà vu all over again. Last week we started with a tough, hard-fought Yankees loss. For continuity's sake, I figured why not do it again! This game was a difficult watch from both a gambler’s perspective as well as from a Yankees fan’s. Not only did the Yankees let 35-year-old rookie Tomoyuki Sugano nearly match his previous season total strikeouts in only 5.0 innings pitched (he had 8 strikeouts on Monday and only had 9 on the year prior to that game), but they also squandered multiple prime opportunities to score. Will Warren also was not on his game, surrendering 4 ER in only 3.1 innings pitched. The final score may have been 4-3, but it truly felt like the Yankees were never really in this game.
TUESDAY (2-0, +2.35u)
Cubs ML (-150, 1.5u) WON
Royals ML (+135, 1u) WON
After a tough day on Monday, it was a fantastic feeling to win two games relatively easily. The Cubs cruised to a 9-0 victory over the Pirates on the road as the home team’s offense could not put anything together against Shota Imanaga. Similarly, the Royals never truly felt in danger as they traveled to Florida to face the Rays. While the final score may have been 3-1, the Royals never trailed after quickly scoring two runs in the first two innings. Freddy Fermin’s RBI single in the 9th resulted in a nice insurance run as the Royals picked up the win as an underdog on the road.
WEDNESDAY (0-0, 0.0u)
No Plays
Nothing really stuck out to me on Wednesday. As I was watching my hometown Yankees jump out to a 2-0 lead in the top of the 1st inning, I certainly regretted not backing the Bronx Bombers against their divisional rival Orioles. However, that regret quickly turned to relief as Carlos Carrasco surrendered 4 earned runs in the 2nd as the Orioles jumped out to a 4-2 lead, a lead they would not relinquish.
THURSDAY (1-1, -0.13u)
Reds ML (-115, 1u) WON
MIN/CLE o9 Runs (-115, 1u) LOSS
After taking the day off, I was very confident in the two games I picked on Thursday. The Cardinals had struggled all year, and I was fairly certain that the Reds would take care of business against their divisional rival at home. The Reds ultimately proved me correct and won the game by a score of 9-1. Unfortunately, the game between Minnesota and Cleveland was not nearly as easy of a watch for me as the Reds-Cardinals game was. I had the over in this game, and these teams did everything in their power to make sure this game went under the 9-run total. The Twins tallied 13 hits in 10 innings, yet only managed 3 runs. This game was a disaster; however, it did help inform me on another pick later in the week.
FRIDAY (1-0, +1.9u)
Red Sox ML (-105, 2u) WON
After the Twins played an extra-innings game against the Guardians on Thursday in Cleveland (a game in which they used 5 relief pitchers), they were forced to travel to Boston to take on the Red Sox. I was extremely confident in the Red Sox handling the Twins after watching Minnesota’s offense struggle the day before; however, despite the final score reading 6-1 in favor of Boston, this game was not a blowout. The Red Sox squandered opportunity after opportunity as the teams remained in a 1-1 deadlock for a majority of the game. However, the floodgates opened after a two-out, two-run single by Rafael Devers in the 7th. In the subsequent innings, the home team tacked on 3 more insurance runs, and I cruised to my biggest single-game win of the week.
SATURDAY (0-1, -1.0u)
ARI/PHI o9.5 runs (-115, 1u) LOSS
After this week, I will officially be stepping away from betting on totals for the time being. I thought the Minnesota and Cleveland game on Thursday was a bad beat, but it doesn’t even compare to the game I witnessed on Saturday. The Phillies dominated the Diamondbacks’ starting pitcher, Brandon Pfaadt, as the home team raced out to a 7-0 lead by the 4th inning. The Diamondbacks helped out by scoring 2 runs thanks to a Lourdes Gurriel two-run home run; however, the Arizona bullpen held the red-hot Phillies offense to zero runs in the remaining 4 innings, leading to a heartbreaking loss by only half of a run.
SUNDAY (0-1, -1.0u)
Red Sox -1.5 (-105, 1u) LOSS
This bet, in retrospect, was a mistake. Going into Sunday, I fully anticipated to have no plays for the day and cruise into the next week with a solid winnings of 1.72u. Unfortunately, I got greedy. After losing my sole play on Saturday, I decided to bet on the Red Sox -1.5 against the Twins. Considering Garrett Crochet was starting for Boston and that I had just witnessed Boston’s offense dismantle the Twins bullpen only a few days prior, this seemed like a good pick; and for a few innings I was correct. After a solo home run from Byron Buxton in the first inning, the Sox scored in the 2nd and 3rd to solidify a 3-1 lead that lasted until the 7th inning. After Crochet exited the game, The Twins pounced on Garrett Whitlock and Justin Slaten managing to squeak across 4 runs in between the 7th and 8th inning. Wilyer Abreu hit a solo home run in the 8th, however it proved to be too little too late as the Red Sox lost outright by a score of 5-4. Lesson learned, don’t get greedy.
Record wise, I finished with a winning percentage of .500, just like I did in the previous week. Fortunately, I was able to manage my units better and hit on some underdogs meaning, despite two straight losing days to end the week, I finished off the week winning 0.72 units. It’s admittedly not a lot, but it is a win nonetheless.
Make sure to follow me on X (GRMBets), where I post all of my MLB gambling plays, and stay tuned for next week’s article! Thanks for reading everyone!