Super Regional Preview: West Virginia @ North Carolina

3/8, Chapel Hill Super Regional

In the 3rd Super Regional, kicking off tonight at 5:00 pm CT, is the Chapel Hill site featuring the West Virginia Mountaineers and North Carolina Tar Heels. After a very underwhelming start to the season where star player and future Top-10 pick coming in July, JJ Weatherholt, hit the shelf for the better part of the season, the Mountaineers finished their season 4th in the Big 12, 36-22 overall, and the 3 seed in the Tucson regional where they would sweep the thing beating Dallas Baptist, and Grand Canyon twice. 

While I thought DBU would get the better of the Mountaineers, they would’ve been my next guess for coming out of Tucson. This is not a 3 seed talent. This club is very dangerous, and I see this series going 3 games easily. It might be the best one we get. 

Offensively, this is a manufacture-runs kind of club. It doesn’t flash a ton of slug (103 in the country), but they produce runs at a 6.8/game clip. Slashing just .273/.371/.467 as a group, headlined by top prospect JJ Weatherholt. The supporting cast of Reed Chumley, Sam White, and Brodie Kresser should create enough traffic on the bases to give the Mountaineers a shot to score consistently through this series. 

JJ Weatherholt: .345/.487/.621, 8 HR, 30 RBI

Reed Chumley: .310/.407/.652, 15 HR, 48 RBI

Sam White: .309/.407/.507, 10 HR, 42 RBI

Brodie Kresser: .279/.409/.429, 4 HR, 24 RBI, 12 SB

Photo via West Virginia Athetics

On the mound, we’ll be looking at an above-average group for the Neers, posting a 4.93 ERA (52) and 1.49 WHIP (69). Headlined by resident ace Derek Clark, Tyler Switalski and Aiden Major round out the rotation, with major bullpen contributions from Gavin Van Kempen, Carson Estridge, and Maxx Yehl. One thing this staff does very well, and they will have to continue with the hard-hitting Tar Heels lineup, is limiting loud contact. Opponents only tallied 48 HR in 58 games against WVU.

Derek Clark: 8-2, 2.82 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 89.1 IP, 83 K, 20 BB, .228 B/AVG

Tyler Switalski: 5-2, 5.34 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 60.2 IP, 54 K, 34 BB, .265 B/AVG

Aiden Major: 5-4, 5.48 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 65.2 IP, 76 K, 35 BB, .248 B/AVG

Gavin Van Kempen: 13 APP, 3.13 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 35 K, 14 BB, .200 B/AVG

Carson Estridge: 20 APP, 3.43 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 39.1 IP, 42 K, 19 BB, .245 B/AVG

Maxx Yehl: 24 APP, 3.99 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 29.1 IP, 32 K, 18 BB, .243 B/AVG 

Photo via West Virginia Athletics

On the opposing side, we’ll get the North Carolina Tar Heels, an extremely balanced ball club that tallied a 45-14 record with a 35-3 record in Chapel Hill. Made it out of their own regional in the do-or-die game against the LSU Tigers, and this team is ready for the Mountaineers. 

The offense can mash, with a team slash line of .308/.413/.536, ranking 15th in the country in SLG. Headlined by a Top-15 prospect in the 2024 draft class, Vance Honeycutt is a true 5-tool player and the best defensive outfielder we’ve seen at the college level. The supporting cast of Gavin Gallaher, Casey Cook, Parks Harber and Anthony Donofrio averaged 8.85 runs/game, with 9/10 qualified hitters averaging over .280. With a SB success rate of 90%, it’s another dimension that will really amplify this dangerous offense. 

Vance Honeycutt: .309/.408/.687, 24 HR, 62 RBI, 28 SB

Gavin Gallaher: .348/.429/.548, 8 HR, 37 RBI

Casey Cook: .345/.438/.622, 18 HR, 76 RBI

Parks Harber: .343/.423/.667, 20 HR, 60 RBI

Anthony Donofrio: .344/.453/.583, 7 HR, 52 RBI, 18 SB

Photo via North Carolina Athletics

On the other side of the ball, the Mountaineers have their hands full with the Tar Heels staff that posted a 4.27 ERA (15) and 1.42 WHIP (33). Jason DeCaro and Shea Sprague lead the rotation, backed by some electric bullpen arms in Dalton Pence, Kyle Percival, Matthew Matthijs, and Connor Bovair. 

Jason DeCaro: 5-1, 4.08 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 79.1 IP, 67 K, 38 BB, .227 B/AVG

Shea Sprague: 3-1, 3.76 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 69.1 IP, 58 K, 16 BB, .261 B/AVG

Dalton Pence: 33 APP, 2.15 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 50.1 IP, 65 K, 24 BB, .168 B/AVG

Kyle Percival: 22 APP, 2.42 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 22.1 IP, 20 K, 11 BB, .235 B/AVG

Matthew Matthijs: 33 APP, 3.56 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 55.2 IP, 55 K, 16 BB, .233 B/AVG

Connor Bovair: 22 APP, 3.71 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 26.2 IP, 26 K, 8 BB, .257 B/AVG 

Photo via North Carolina Athletics

I do really like this series to go three. Still, I find it hard to convince myself that the Mountaineers should take this series after what the Tar Heels did in the regional, taking down the defending National Champions and their dominance at home.