Starter: Why Clay Holmes has the Opportunity to Succeed
A Blog By Hagen
David Stearns and the New York Mets made an early move this offseason, jumping on former Yankees All-Star closer Clay Holmes for a 3-year, $38 million deal. The deal has an Average Annual Value (AAV) of $12.67 million and a player option for his age 34 season in 2027. At first, this looked like a great way for New York to tighten up the backend of their bullpen, which ranked 17th in baseball in ERA last season. Shortly after, news broke that he would be slotting into the rotation for the Mets. This news came as a shock to the baseball world, but once you dive deep into what Holmes has to offer, this move isn't as crazy as you think.
Holmes came into the league as a starter, but his stint was short-lived. He only made four starts during his rookie campaign in 2018 and has resided in the bullpen since. After appearing in 91 games for the Pirates while posting a 5.57 ERA in 119.2 innings, he was traded to the Yankees midway through the 2021 season. During his time in New York, Holmes posted a 4.8 fWAR, 2.69 ERA, a 2.74 FIP, and over 217.2 innings. All of which ranked in the top 12 among qualified relievers during the span. Holmes was slotted into the closer role during the majority of his tenure with the Yankees, picking up 74 saves from 2022 to 2024. This 3-year window is when he made a name for himself and became a multi-year All-Star.
The Mets signing Holmes to be a part of their rotation makes a lot of sense. Between his size, pitch arsenal, and ability to generate ground balls at an elite rate, he creates himself a solid floor. Holmes’ overall makeup is better suited for a starter instead of the bullpen in high-leverage situations. The biggest reason to support this is his ability to pitch to contact and keep the ball on the ground. In an age where strikeouts are sought after, Clay pitches to contact and strikes batters out at around a league-average rate. The stuff is very good but it isn't exactly what teams are looking for in high leverage. His lack of strikeouts often led to some nerve-wracking innings for Yankee fans, with hitters constantly putting the ball in play during tight games.
Arguably, the biggest reason why the Mets want Holmes to be a part of their rotation is his elite ground ball rate. During his tenure with the crosstown rival Yankees, Holmes posted an astonishing 67.8% ground ball rate which ranked first among relievers. Holmes achieved that high rate, in part due to his sinker, which he used 56.3% of the time in 2024. Using the sinker as much as he has and mixing in his sweeper and slider, Holmes has been in the 100th percentile in ground ball percentage each of the last 3 seasons. His sinker is his signature pitch and is the reason he is able to create such a high ground ball rate, with an average launch angle of -4 against the pitch in 2024. With the amount of ground balls he gets and the Mets infield defense behind him, I am fully confident in him as a part of the rotation going into 2025.
To be a successful starting pitcher you have to be able to pitch to contact, even with starters strikeout rates on the rise. Clay Holmes has proven throughout his career that his stuff can play that way. When he does get hitters to 2 strikes, he tends to lean to his sweeper and slider, which were his putaway pitches 22.1% and 22% of the time, respectively, in 2024. I am a firm believer that Holmes’ stuff will play much better as a starter. As a starter, he will be able to pitch more freely and not feel the pressure of making a perfect pitch every time, as he has been doing with high leverage.
All indications from Mets President of Baseball Operations David Stearns lead us to believe the team will be utilizing a 6-man rotation throughout the season. This strategy benefits the starters to get more rest and stay healthy throughout 162 games. Getting the extra day of rest is huge for a guy like Holmes, whose career-high of 136.1 innings came back in 2016. New York doesn't want to push him beyond his limits, especially when he hasn’t thrown over 100 innings in 7 seasons. Holmes has the familiarity with starting, as well as the frame to handle the workload coming in at 6-5, 245 pounds. With the Mets implementing a 6-man rotation, Holmes will hopefully be able to stay below an innings limit and get enough rest between starts.
This contract could easily go down as one of the most team-friendly deals in the 2024 offseason. If Holmes ends up sticking in the rotation, they have someone who can pitch to contact and excel in that regard for an AAV of $12.67 million. If the rotation experiment fails for New York, they have an extremely safe floor of a proven high-leverage arm. For comparison, Frankie Montas, who the Mets also signed this offseason, got an AAV of $17 million over 2 years. This comes off a year where he posted a 4.84 ERA, 4.71 FIP, and ERA+ of 89 throughout 150.2 innings. The price for starting pitching today is extremely high, even for league-average arms. The Mets placed a safe bet on Clay Holmes, who has a very safe floor with an unknown ceiling. Don't be surprised if he excels in his new role with a city he is already familiar with.