Spencer Jones: The Polarizing Prospect In Baseball
Spencer Jones Continues To Produce At Every Level
Meet Spencer Jones, a 6'7", 240 LB prospect for the New York Yankees who was selected 25th overall in the 2022 draft, signing a $2,880,800 bonus after attending Vanderbilt. While known for his outrageous power output, he has a poor hit tool with massive swing and miss issues. He started to get tons of attention in 2023 after hitting 16 HR, collecting 66 RBI, 43 SB, a .267/.336/.444 slashline, and posting a 113 wRC+ over 117 G. But this came with a staggering 28.9% K% and a high whiff rate. Concerns were starting to swirl among prospect evaluators. Jones had another productive season in 2024, playing the entire season in AA. He slashed .259/.336/.452 with 17 HR and 25 SB in 122 games. He was showing his + raw power and base running abilities. However, Jones increased his K% to an alarming 36.8%. But he remained productive.
He had a massive stance change from 2024 to 2025. He now stands more open and completely faces the pitcher while having lower offset hand positioning and a larger leg kick. Some coaches teach this to allow both eyes to see the ball when the pitcher enters their slot window. With his new stance, he continued to dominate AA in his short 49-game stint before his call to AAA. In 208 PA, he slashed .274/.389/.594 with 16 HR and 10 SB. A noticeable trend that we will also see in AAA is an increased BB%. He walked 15.4% in AA, his highest rate in MiLB. While he still had 33.7% K% before the call to AAA, it was ultimately the right decision because these numbers make no sense.
In AAA, he’s been nothing short of electric. In just 24 games (114 PA), Jones has 13 HR, 28 R, 27 RBI, and 10 SB while slashing an eye-popping .375/.439/.844. That’s good for a .522 wOBA and a 219 wRC+. I love looking at his surface-level results, but let's take an even closer look! In terms of his expected stats and QoC results, he has been on another planet:
(Percentiles)
—xwOBA: .468 (98th)
—xBA: .325 (96th)
—xSLG: .732 (99th)
—AVG EV: 94.7 MPH (96th)
—Max EV: 113.4 MPH (95th)
—Barrel%: 21.9% (97th)
—Hard-Hit%: 60.9% (97th)
However, there are still concerns. He is still rocking a bottom 20% chase% at 34% while whiffing close to 37% of the time and is posting a very poor 76.0% Z-Con% and bottom 10% SwStr% at 17.7%. At the same time, Jones is posting the lowest K% we've seen at a per-level sample since A Ball, but his boom or bust still stands. I will stand on this point, though. Do I think Jones has a Boom or Bust potential profile? Yes. However, I am not as concerned as other analysts and evaluators because, to be quite honest, he's still been very productive at every level of his career so far. The skills are there.
Spencer Jones has one of the most ridiculous xwOBA charts you'll see among any prospect or MLB player, even ones in a small sample like his. He is handling middle-middle offerings (he should be doing this), and he has fantastic results in zones 4, 7, and 8 — posting a .449 xwOBA in zone 4, .553 in zone 7, and .595 in zone 8. In terms of pitch types, he has a 60% Hard-Hit% or higher on 4-Seamers, Sinkers, Sliders, and Curveballs. Against the top three pitches he’s seeing in AAA (which make up 64.1% of all pitches seen), he’s posting a ridiculous .511 xwOBA. He also has an xSLG over .700 on both Sinkers and 4-Seamers. While Jones has a "Boom or Bust" profile, I still think he has shown production at every level while being able to pull fly balls for power and post insane QoC results. He's still only 24 and continuing to develop.
Data: @fangraphs @ProspectSavant
Thank you for reading!