Scattered Offseason Musings

Kevin's thoughts on the offseason so far...

My co-hosts and I covered the latest Hot Stove activity as well as the evolution of the mega-deal in our latest podcast (linked here if you’re interested - special Easter egg for you Seinfeld fans at the end), but here are some of my thoughts of the offseason in a bit more detail…

Let’s all be honest – at this stage of the offseason, I think most baseball fans would have preferred more free-agent activity.  I vividly remember last year at this same time, almost all of the big-ticket free agents had found a home.  This included the deals of all four of the free agent shortstops last year (although the Correa-Mets move ultimately fell through), Aaron Judge, Justin Verlander, etc.  Point is, the Hot Stove last year was already cooling down at this stage compared to this year, where the Stove has yet to fully fire up. 

It’s pretty easy to point fingers at Shohei Ohtani, the monolithic domino of free agency that needed to fall to jumpstart the market.  After a memorable stretch of intense coverage that still managed to be shrouded in secrecy, he ultimately ended up back in LA but agreeing to don Dodger Blue for the next decade for a pretty price tag of $700 million.

Photo: Meg Oliphant / Getty Images

With the Ohtani deal, one would have expected the proverbial dam to break, and we would have started seeing agreements left-and-right.  But since then, we have only seen one material multi-year mega deal being consummated by a “top” free agent: the 6-year $113 million contract the Giants gave to Jung Hoo Lee, the 25-year-old center field phenomenon from the KBO. Since then, we have also seen the 3-year $42 million signing of Lourdes Gurriel Jr. by the Diamondbacks and, of course, the 5-year $137 million extension of Tyler Glasnow by the Dodgers. These deals are a testament to the absurd market for A+ talent. Let’s throw out the Gurriel deal for now, as it seems like a very good deal for both player and team. No knock on Lee (especially from me, as I am a huge fan), but I don’t think anyone expected him to land anywhere close to $100 million from a Major League team. But, if you consider his skillset, and the market he brings in (e.g. the entire country of South Korea), all of that -I imagine- has been priced in by the Giants. And while extending Glasnow seemed like a logical next step for the Dodgers, I could hear the jaws drop when the $137 million value was announced. Paying entirely for the upside on a pitcher who has surpassed 100 innings pitched once in his career is just the reality of the market we are in for talent.  

Back to the lack of action - it’s very clear that Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the free agent signing that unclogs the pipes of offseason activity.  Yamamoto, also just 25, has the stuff and track record already that has attracted universal interest from anyone who needs a young ace to anchor their rotation for years to come.  But once again, we are hearing rumblings of a deal in excess of $250 - $300 million for a man who has never thrown a pitch in the big leagues. Based on activity thus far, it will be exciting to see where the final agreement ultimately ends up. With many reports coming in saying that Yamamoto is “close” to a decision, we should be a few short weeks away from the sweet release of a roaring Hot Stove.  

Photo: Koji Watanabe / Getty Images

Just reflecting on the deals done thus far, it is absolutely foreign to me that the free agency will have been “set” by a triumvirate of Asian internationals, no pun intended. It truly reflects how global the game has become.   The World Baseball Classic really did pour some gasoline on the fire that is international baseball intrigue. And MLB is capitalizing with the 2024 season having 4 (!!) international destinations: Mexico City, London, the Dominican Republic, and, for the very first time, Seoul.  For a sport that has been synonymous with the American identity, it is amazing to see other nations embrace the sport and add their own cultural twist around its rituals. 

Finally, while there have not been a ton of mega-deals done, I do have to commend the Kansas City Royals for being active and making some under-the-radar great moves to potentially push for contention in the AL Central.  In the past week, we have seen the Royals add starters Seth Lugo (who has always been a favorite of mine since his Mets days) Michael Wacha, and outfielder Hunter Renfroe.  It’s bold for a team that came close to matching the woeful Oakland A’s in terms of record, but perhaps the front office has seen enough forward progress from Bobby Witt Jr. and Cole Ragans to start capitulating on a weak AL Central.  And if it doesn’t play out this year, all three of the new additions are exactly what a contending team would be looking for at the deadline: a dependable veteran with past playoff experience, that wouldn’t come at too much of a price premium.  No notes, Kansas City, no notes.         

-KL