Riley Greene Has Arrived
The 24 year old outfielder for Detroit is having a career year.
The Detroit Tigers had the 5th overall pick in the 2019 draft in which they selected a high school outfielder from Oviedo, FL. At 18 years old, Riley Greene seemed like a distant solution for Tigers fans as they watched their team finish the 2019 season with a 47-114 record. He’d need the proper time to acclimate to big league pitching as he progressed through the minor leagues. Immediate impact was not the plan for the Tigers when they drafted Riley Greene. Future success and a cornerstone bat in their lineup was the optimal goal. Flash forward six seasons and the patience has paid off and in a big way.
Minor Leagues
2019
Riley Greene spent time in three levels of the Tigers organization in 2019 (Rookie, Low A, and High A). His stats: 251 PA, .271 AVG, .347 OBP, .403 SLG, 5 HR, 34 R, 28 RBI, 5 SB, 125 wRC+. An impressive showing for an 18 year old, so far living up to the high draft pick.
2020
Covid-19 caused the cancellation of MiLB and a lost season for Riley Greene. What would have been a crucial second year of development for Greene was no longer an option. Concerns about interrupting or slowing down his progression swirled in the media. How would he bounce back in 2021 or even worse would that season get cancelled to? The unknown added pressure for Riley Greene to prove his worth.
2021
Minor League baseball was back and so was Riley Greene. He started the season in AA and ascended to AAA. His stats: 558 PA, .301 AVG, .387 OBP, .534 SLG, 24 HR, 95 R, 84 RBI, 16 SB, 147 wRC+. He was getting better as the competition got tougher. The hype regained momentum as Detroit Tigers fans awaited their top prospect’s arrival to the big leagues.
2022
Riley Greene was set to make the Opening Day roster with the Tigers as a 21 year old but a fractured foot delayed those plans. He missed the start of the season, then played 15 games in AAA, before debuting with Detroit on June 18, 2022. The highlight of that season was his first career home run coming as a walk off against division rival, Kansas City. His stats: 418 PA, .253 AVG, .321 OBP, .362 SLG, 5 HR, 46 R, 42 RBI, 1 SB, 98 wRC+. A slightly below average hitter in the majors as a 21 year old coming back from a foot injury. Detroit was optimistic that this was the start of a bright future for the former top pick in the draft.
Major Leagues
2023
Riley Greene’s first full season starting with the Major League club. After getting a decent taste in 2022, the expectations were high. The Tigers were coming off a 66-96 record so there was hope that the left-handed hitting outfielder could give the team the spark they desperately needed. His year to year changes were noticeable and effective in making him a better overall hitter. He improved his hard hit %, avg exit velocity, launch angle sweet-spot %, and barrel %. He also refined his swing decisions, dropping his K % and out of zone swing %. Unfortunately, his season was cut short due to Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow. His stats: 416 PA, .288 AVG, .349 OBP, .447 SLG, 11 HR, 51 R, 37 RBI, 7 SB, 120 wRC+. Another promising showing for Tigers fans. Could 2024 be when he really starts to put it together or is health going to be a long term concern?
2024
Greene notched career highs in games played and plate appearances in 2024. A welcomed sight for Tigers fans that had yet to see his full potential. Once again Riley Greene did not disappoint. He was elected to his first All-Star game and finished the season with these stats: 584 PA, .262 AVG, .348 OBP, .479 SLG, 24 HR, 82 R, 74 RBI, 4 SB, 135 wRC+. He ranked seventh among AL outfielders in HR, 4th in wRC+, and sixth in fWAR. A great season encapsulated by the Tigers first postseason run in 10 years. Riley Greene’s breakout happened in 2024, was this the peak or a sign for bigger things to come?
2025
If you told me ahead of time that Riley Greene would have a career high K% (31.5) and career low BB% (6.8) this season, I’d think he took a massive step back in his progression and the Tigers team as a whole would be struggling. Thankfully, that couldn’t be further from the truth for Greene and the MLB best record Detroit Tigers. He has a career best max exit velocity at 115.1 mph, a 75.3 mph avg. bat speed and 24 HRs already (tying his career high from all of 2024). He ranks 88th % or better in xSLG, Barrel %, Launch Angle Sweet Spot %, and Bat Speed. Simply put, he’s crushing the ball. He’s also pulling the ball in the air at a career high mark, which helps him to optimize that power.
Greene is one of three hitters with >20 HR, >70 RBI, >140 wRC+, and >3.0 fWAR. The other two are AL MVP frontrunners, Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh.
There’s no signs of him slowing down either. Greene is one of five hitters in all of baseball to hit 5+ HRs in each month this season, including July which has two weeks left of games to be played. The consistent power output so far has his rest of season projections at 10-13 HR, 32-35 R, 35-40 RBI, and a 125-135 wRC+. We’re looking at a potential 35+ HR, 85+R, 100+ RBI output from a 24 year old.
Summary
Riley Greene has exemplified the perfect career trajectory that you hope to see from a developing hitter. Constant improvement from season to season. While it may come with some shortfalls in certain areas of the profile, the total body of work looks better each year and eventually every piece will click. The Tigers have a homegrown star that is knocking on the door of superstardom in the seasons to come. I can’t wait to see what the future holds for Greene and the Tigers.
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