Replacing Acuña
Replacing Acuña
Will Hailey looks at outfielders the Braves could trade for following Ronald Acuña's ACL tear.
Last week’s episode of No Dowd About It! began with an intervention for Kevin on the heels of many Mets and personal fantasy losses. This week, myself and the rest of Braves Country are the ones in need of mental health support following Ronald Acuña’s ACL tear. I am not here to say that the situation is not that bad or to convince Braves Country that the sky is not falling. Yes, Acuña has underperformed this year, but losing the reigning league MVP a third of the way through the season is devastating. Period. The task for Alex Anthopoulos and the Atlanta front office is to replace Acuña. This is déjà vu all over again.
The first time the Braves lost Acuña to an ACL tear was the beginning of July 2021. With Acuña out and the rest of the outfield not performing, AA filled the gaps with Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, Eddie Rosario, and Adam Duvall. The impact in the lineup and in the clubhouse lead the Braves to their first World Series title in 26 years. Atlanta has committed to playing both Jarred Kelenic and Adam Duvall full-time in the outfield corners for the time being, but even David Fletcher would bet on the Braves to add more than Ramon Laureano in the coming weeks. It is not about replacing Acuña, it is about recreating him in the aggregate. Here are three potential rentals AA could acquire to do just that (plus a few honorable mentions).
Tommy Pham
This trade should have happened within five minutes of AA getting Ronnie’s MRI results. Pham signed a one-year “prove it” deal with the White Sox two weeks into the season and prove it he has. The 36-year old is nearly matching his career OPS with a .773 mark in 30 games alongside his usual strong bat-to-ball skills and high average exit velocity. Pham has even improved some aspects of his game with a career low ground ball rate leading to an 80th percentile Sweet Spot%.
Pham’s usually stellar plate discipline has not resulted in many walks this year, but a potential culprit has been his passivity on the first pitch of an at-bat. Pham has been leading off most games for the Chi Sox and has swung at just 11.9% of first pitches but is seeing the same amount of first pitch strikes as any other point in his career. Hitting in the lower half of the order in Atlanta could keep him from starting as many counts 0-1. His outfield defense has also left something to be desired, but hey, so does Acuña’s. The abysmal White Sox have no reason to hang on to Pham and he should be in Braves uniform well before any fantasy football leagues start drafting.
Anthony Santander
The 35-19 Orioles are obviously not sellers like the White Sox, but with too many mouths to feed in their lineup it may behoove Mike Elias to get any value he can for Santander before he leaves in free agency. Despite a .204 average in 50 games, the switch-hitter’s nine homers has made him a positive contributor on the season with a 104 wRC+. Santander can be a free-swinging pop-up machine at times, but he consistently hits the ball hard and has managed to ride hot streaks to strong seasons each of the last two years, finishing with 2.3 and 2.6 WAR in 2022 and 2023 respectively.
For his career, Santander’s right field defense has been somewhere between Roberto Clemente and Nick Castellanos, and spoiler, it’s closer to Castellanos. He is a career low BABIP guy, but his .210 mark this year is brutal. This may mean there is some positive regression on the way, however he has not hit the ball hard so far in 2024 and expected stats believe his mediocre performance is warranted. Leadership in Baltimore has not prioritized major league at-bats for their top prospects, but it is hard to justify holding down the likes of Hjerstad, Norby, Mayo, and Holliday in favor of mediocre. The Braves, however, love turning mediocre into championships.
Mark Canha
The Tigers offseason optimism was fair as the team has been significantly stronger this year than last, but Detroit still finds themselves below .500 and fourth in their division going into June. While they may keep pushing for a playoff spot, they are in a somewhat similar position to the Orioles where there are a lot of young guys that deserve at-bats and the Detroit brass may decide they do not want Mark Canha on an expiring contract to get in the way. In the 36-year old Canha’s defense, he has quietly been one of the most consistent hitters in baseball over the last seven years. He popped in the juiced ball 2019 season for a 146 wRC+, but has been between 11 and 26 percent better than league average in every other season as a mostly full-time player.
As much as we at Jon Dowd’s Burner love batted ball profiles and a menagerie of advanced statistics, Canha has consistently outperformed his peripherals long enough that you just have to assume this is who he is. He does not have power, he does not run, he cannot field, he does not swing hard or hit the ball very hard, but you know what he does do? He gets on base. And he gets on base an awful lot for someone that should cost a minor-league reliever and international slot money.
Honorable Mentions:
Jurickson Profar
The Padres are in a strong position for a wild card spot and adding Luis Arraez shows their commitment to competing, but if things go south in June they should absolutely unload Profar. The former top prospect is on a one-year deal and has improved his usually great plate discipline and contact ability to elite levels this year while also hitting the ball consistently hard for the first time in his career.
Michael Conforto
The Giants also find themselves in a strong position for a wild card spot at the moment. They have not made the win now moves the Padres have this year and seem more likely to be sellers if they find themselves at or below .500 in July. Conforto has returned to form with a .280/.331/.490 slash line this year and is even hitting lefties well, albeit in a small 38 plate appearance sample.
Randy Arozarena
Randy has two years of arbitration left until free agency which is the Rays equivalent of Leonardo DiCaprio’s girlfriend turning 25. It seems highly unlikely Arozarena with be a Ray at the start of 2025, but it would be a sell low for Tampa right now given his .161 batting average, the worst of any qualified batter this year. If the Braves have little faith in Jarred Kelenic and are looking for more than rental, Randy would absolutely be in play.
Taylor Ward
Ward also has two more years of Arb after this season, but if the Angels do not expect to compete in that timeframe (and honestly, they should not expect to), then selling high on Ward while he is healthy could be a smart move. Ward went to the Canha School of Lowkey Always Good but with the addition of a bright red Statcast page showcasing excellent barrel rates, exit velos, and launch angles. His expected stats say his .271/.332/.478 slash is underperforming, so he will not come cheap if the Braves want to make a long-term addition.
-WH
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More outstanding content! I was right there with you on Pham.