Editor’s Note: All my graphics going forward will come directly from my new website, Stat Soldier. Go check it out by clicking here.
Overall Takeaway
Every time you think they are about to do something special, you get your heart ripped out. Tuesday’s game, I hid an AirPods and listened to the game on the radio. Like every good husband in America, I have been locked into the Summer House Reunion for the past two weeks. I am told I need to be on Team Kyle and Ciara, but frankly, they all seem like terrible people.
Kind of like the people around Fenway Park, if you asked Isiah Kiner-Falafel (purposely misspelled his name)
But yeah, according to IKF, one of the reasons the Red Sox are so bad at Fenway (1-20 if they give up more than 3 runs and 10-21 overall) is the distractions around the stadium. Team is totally fine….
Game 1: Orioles 4-2
Game 2: Red Sox 8-1
Game 3: Orioles 8-2
What I Loved
Payton Tolle
Ace? Yes.
Everything Tolle has done so far is impressive. The most impressive number for me thus far? The 2.66 FIP. That would be in the Top 10 for qualified pitchers, right, with Skenes.
Caleb Durbin
Batting .357 with a .952 over his last seven games. I will talk more about his new hitting coach at the bottom, but it is clear now that some sort of tweak is working for him. Durbin went from about to be defenestrated to "alright, we can deal with that.”
Ceddanne Rafaela
Rafaela is quietly having the best offensive season of his career. Got a hit every game this series, striking out better than his career average, and is walking more than he ever has.
Wilyer Abreu and Willson Contreras
Homers from both as they continue to be the only two guys on offense who you could vote for the All-Star game and not be completely biased.
What I Was ‘Mid’ About
Connelly Early
Putting Connelly in “mid” again this week. The home run ball has been his kryptonite. Over his last five starts, he has given up two home runs in three of those games. The two he didn’t give up any bombs? Both had 7 shut-out innings.
What I Didn’t Love
Brayan Bello
Chad Tracy gave a press conference where he laid it out on the line and said that Bello is a starter and he needs to start. Fact of the matter is, he is one of the worst, if not the worst, pitchers in baseball when he is starting. Looking at all the pitching talent that has walked out of Boston over the last few years, this is starting to raise some eyebrows. I am not sounding the alarm just yet. Early and Tolle are great. However, you have to imagine that ownership/Theo is starting to question what is going on.
I also think the team seriously has to consider sending him to the minors to get right.
Who Got Screwed
John Soteropulos
Watched an interview with John on the pregame today, and he seems like a happy-go-lucky guy. So, I want to emphasize that this is not an attack on him.
It is starting to look comical how quickly Caleb Durbin has turned it around since going and seeing the hitting coach out in Waltham. Tons of players do stuff like this, so it isn’t unheard of, but Caleb had the worst wRC+ in all MLB then immediately went on a hot streak.
IT IS A BAD LOOK. No one should want their players to drive an hour outside the city before every home game to work on their swing.
Stat Soldier Score Cards
Game 1:
Game 2:
Game 3:
Durbin last year: 101 OPS+, 105 wRC+
This year, probably following the Driveline guys: 58 OPS+, 51 wRC+ (and we’re far enough into the season that it’s no longer “too early to say it’s early”). Mercifully, the early returns on the Waltham guys are looking promising … (but that is too early to say it’s early).
Given the struggles so many of the guys are having at the plate … I think it’s fair to wonder if hitting coaching is effective … and that certainly can’t be laid at Cora, et. al.’s feet.