Editor’s Note: All my graphics going forward will come directly from Dean’s new website, Stat Soldier. Go check it out by clicking here.
Tonight is the night! The MLB Home Run Derby.
This is one of the most exciting events in sports. Every year, we see some of the best power hitters in baseball come together to show us what they can do at the plate, essentially during a controlled batting practice.
The field this year is super intriguing, and it got me thinking about how this year’s field stacks up to others. So I took the last 10 seasons of home run data pre-All-Star Break, excluding the Covid-19 season, and wanted to see how this year’s Home Run Derby Field stacks up against the previous 9.
See what I found out and check out my prediction for tonight!
10) 2022
The Field: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 29, Pete Alonso (NYM) - 23, Corey Seager (TEX) - 22, Juan Soto (WSH) - 21, Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 19, Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 15, Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 8, Albert Pujols (STL) - 6
The Winner: Juan Soto (WSH)
Total HR By All-Star Break: 143
9) 2023
The Field: Luis Robert Jr. (CHW) - 24, Pete Alonso (NYM) - 26, Mookie Betts (LAD) - 26, Adolis Garcia (TEX) - 21, Randy Arozarena (RB) - 16, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 13, Julio Rodriguez (SEA) - 13, Adley Rutschman (BAL) -11
The Winner: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR)
Total HR By All-Star Break: 150
8) 2018
The Field: Jesus Aguilar (MIL) - 24, Bryce Harper (PHI) - 23, Max Muncy (LAD) - 21, Alex Bregman (HOU) - 19, Kyle Schwarber (CHC) - 17, Javier Baez (CHC) - 18, Freddie Freeman (ATL) - 16, Rhys Hoskins (PHI) - 14
The Winner: Bryce Harper (PHI)
Total HR By All-Star Break: 152
7) 2021
The Field: Shohei Ohtani (LAA) - 33, Joey Gallo (TEX) - 24, Matt Olson (OAK) - 20, Salvador Perez (KC) - 21, Pete Alonso (NYM) - 17, Trey Mancini (BAL) - 16, Trevor Story (COL) - 11, Juan Soto (WSH) - 11
The Winner: Pete Alonso (NYM)
Total HR By All-Star Break: 153
6) 2024
The Field: Teoscar Hernandez (LAD) - 19, Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) - 16, Alec Bohm (PHI) - 11, Jose Ramirez (CLE) - 29, Adolis Garcia (TEX) - 17, Marcell Ozuna (ATL) - 26, Pete Alonso (NYM) - 18, Gunnar Henderson (BAL) - 28
The Winner: Teoscar Hernandez (LAD)
Total HR By All-Star Break: 164
5) 2016
The Field: Mark Trumbo (BAL) - 28, Todd Frazier (CHW) - 23, Adam Duvall (CIN) - 22, Robinson Cano (SEA) - 20, Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) - 19, Wil Myers (SD) - 19, Carlos Gonzalez (COL) - 18, & Corey Seager (LAD) - 17
The Winner: Giancarlo Stanton (MIA)
Total HR By All-Star Break: 166
4) 2017
The Field: Giancarlo Stanton (MIA) - 23, Aaron Judge (NYY) - 29, Cody Bellinger (LAD) - 24, Mike Moustakas (KC) - 25, Miguel Sano (MIN) - 20, Charlie Blackmon (COL) - 18, Justin Bour (MIA) - 18, & Gary Sanchez (NYY) - 13
The Winner: Aaron Judge (NYY)
Total HR By All-Star Break: 170
3) 2019
The Field: Christian Yelich (MIL) - 31, Pete Alonso (NYM) - 28, Josh Bell (PIT) - 26, Alex Bregman (HOU) - 23, Joc Pederson (LAD) - 20, Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) - 20, Carlos Santana (CLE) - 19, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) - 8
The Winner: Pete Alonso (NYM)
Total HR By All-Star Break: 175
2) 2025
The Field: Cal Raleigh (SEA) - 38, Junior Caminero (TB) - 23, Oneil Cruz (PIT) - 16, Byron Buxton (MIN) - 21, Brent Rooker (ATH) - 20, James Wood (WSH) - 24, Matt Olson (ATL) - 17, Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) - 17
The Winner: Cal Raleigh (SEA)
Total HR By All-Star Break: 176
1) 2026
The Field: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) - 32, Bryce Harper (PHI) - 20, Jac Caglianone (KC) - 15, Junior Caminero (TB) - 28, Willson Contreras (BOS) - 20, Munetaka Murakami (CHW) - 20, Jordan Walker (STL) - 22, & Ben Rice (NYY) - 29
The Winner: TBD (My Prediction - Jac Caglianone)***
Total HR By All-Star Break: 186
The most shocking thing I took away from this exercise is that this year has had the most home runs hit as a group in the last decade, Pre-All-Star Break. Hitting has been “down” all year, but the home runs have not stopped.
I feel lile the ASG is later in the season this year (World Cup?). That may, in part, explain this year's home run total.
The majestic, swirling, celestial theater of sports has converged upon the physical realm tonight for the Home Run Derby. We will witness mortal men launch stitched-leather spheres into the upper stratosphere, echoing the great, booming infinite vibrations of the universe itself.
Who will ultimately transcend gravity and reign supreme?