Poor Decision Making Ruined this Week
Greg's Weekly Wager Recap 5/5 - 5/11
This was a tough week. I am not going to sugarcoat it at all. Lets jump straight into the picks to see what went wrong this week.
MONDAY (0-1-2, -1.0u)
James Wood o1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-125, 1u) VOID
Nationals ML (+105, 1u) VOID
Reds ML (+130, 1u) LOSS
I started off the week poorly. The Nationals game was rained out, meaning the two bets I was most confident in were void. To make matters worse, the Reds played terribly against the Braves and were limited to only 1 hit throughout the whole game. This bet never had a chance, as the Reds’ offense simply could not get going and the Braves cruised to a 4-0 victory.
TUESDAY (3-0, +2.37u)
Steven Kwan o1.5 Hits/Runs/RBIs (-140, 1u) WON
Rangers ML (-120, 1u) WON
Phillies ML (-120, 1u) WON
Tuesday was a massive bounce-back day for me. After a tumultuous start on Monday, I hit all three of my bets and went up nearly 2.5 units on the day. None of the bets were easy wins, however. Despite the Guardians putting up 14 hits and 9 runs against the Nationals, Kwan remained hitless for most of the game. Fortunately, in the 7th inning, Kwan singled to right field and later scored as a result of a Jose Ramirez single. Nonetheless, the bet hit. Similarly, there was nothing easy about the Phillies' victory on the road against the Tampa Bay Rays. After jumping out to a 3-0 lead in the 2nd, a Yandy Diaz two-run home run in the 4th closed the gap. The Phillies were able to pull away later in the game largely thanks to a Nick Castellanos home run in the 8th inning that expanded the lead by 3 runs. The Rangers' win over the Red Sox was less exciting. The Rangers’ offense put a beating on the Sox, tallying 16 hits and 6 runs. The Sox were only able to manage a single run and ultimately lost by a score of 6-1.
WEDNESDAY (0-0, 0.0u)
No Plays
Coming off of a big sweep on Tuesday, I decided to take the day off. Nothing really stuck out to me when checking the lines, and the Knicks were taking on the Celtics in game 2 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals that evening, a game that I was much more invested in than any May MLB game. But alas, this is a baseball blog, so let’s return to discussing America’s pastime.
THURSDAY (0-1, -1.0u)
Orioles ML (+130, 1u) LOSS
This loss really stung. The Orioles have been terrible this year, and entering Thursday’s matchup against the Twins, they had lost their previous 4 games. I thought this was a perfect time to back the Orioles in a bounce-back spot, with a good price, facing an inconsistent opponent. Ultimately, I was sort of right but also very wrong. The O’s offense woke up this game as they tallied 10 total hits, but they really struggled converting those baserunners to runs. They scored in the 2nd and 3rd innings to take a 2-1 lead but squandered every subsequent opportunity to increase their lead. Eventually, the Twins fought back to take a 5-2 lead, a lead they would not relinquish.
FRIDAY (1-2, -1.25u)
Nationals ML (-110, 1u) LOSS
Giants ML (-112, 1.5u) LOSS
Blue Jays ML (+125) WON
I made a horrible mistake on Friday. Initially, my card contained only two picks: Nationals ML and Blue Jays ML. After the Nats were blown out 10-0 at home, I decided to amend my card and add the Giants ML. Even worse, I decided to play it for 1.5 units. The Giants fell victim to the red-hot Twins as Chris Paddack turned back the clock and pitched a fantastic 7.1 innings, only surrendering a single earned run. The Twins cruised to a 3-1 victory. Finally, the Blue Jays really salvaged my day. A wire-to-wire victory for the Blue Jays was exactly what I needed to recoup some of my losses from the terrible Giants ML decision. Hopefully, I won't fall victim to backing the Giants again later this week.
SATURDAY (2-2, -0.45u)
Nationals ML (+100, 1u) LOSS
Rangers ML (-105, 1u) WON
Reds ML (+110, 1u) WON
Giants ML (-105, 1.5u) LOSS
Not even 24 hours later, not only did I bet on the Giants again at 1.5 units, but I also bet on the Nationals again. If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result, then lock me up in Arkham Asylum. The Rangers and Reds won their games by a combined 11 runs, and neither team trailed for even a second. However, the Giants and Nationals both lost true nail-biting games. Logan Webb pitched very well for San Francisco, but the offense could only manage a single run and ultimately lost 2-1. The Nationals suffered a slightly different fate, as a 4-run second inning for the Cardinals seemed to put this game away early. However, the Nats fought back but had trouble converting baserunners into runs. They scored 2 runs in the 8th to cut the lead in half, but it was too little, too late.
SUNDAY (2-1, +0.77u)
Nathan Eovaldi o5.5 Ks (-160, 1u)
Maikel Garcia o1.5 H/R/RBIs (-155, 1u)
Phillies ML (-175, 2u)
I decided to switch things up to end the week. After betting exclusively money lines for the past 3 days, I followed a more prop-heavy approach. Nathan Eovaldi had a fantastic outing, finishing with 7 Ks, easily cashing his strikeout prop as the Rangers cruised to a 5-run victory. Maikel Garcia, like most of the Royals offense, did not show up at all against Lucas Giolito and the Red Sox. The Royals only managed 4 hits and a single measly run on Sunday, and since Maikel Garcia did not reach base a single time, this bet was a complete failure. After splitting bets in the early window, I needed my final play to win to avoid a totally catastrophic week. Thankfully, Zach Wheeler and the Phillies bullpen shut out the Guardians in their own stadium as the offense did just enough to secure a 3-0 victory on Sunday Night Baseball.
In all, I lost 1.55u this week while going 8-8 on bets (3rd week in a row with an exactly .500 record, which is pretty crazy). While it was undeniably a disappointing week, it was avoidable. I don’t want to be a Monday morning quarterback, but if I hadn’t added on the Giants ML on Friday, the week would have essentially been a wash. Nevertheless, I need to bounce back next week because of poor decision-making this prior week.