Players I Expect to Breakout in 2024 Based on AAA Statcast
OC Baseball predicts under the radar breakout candidates for 2024
Every year, there are some not so well known players that breakout and become everyday contributors. After scouring through AAA statcast data via Prospects Live, I found a few players that I believe are primed to really breakout in 2024. A motif in this article will be plus defensive skills, and that has a lot to do with a players’ floor & ability to be productive even through offensive slumps. The two main requirements are that these players have already made their MLB debuts, and that they were not highly touted prospects. Now that the criteria has been established, who will breakout in 2024?
1) Maikel Garcia 3B Royals
I was drawn to Garcia on the Prospects Live database due to his low chase rate and really good SwStr% against all three types of pitches (FB, BB, OFF) being below 8.5%. What really caught my attention was the 44.6% hard hit rate with a very low 22.7 degree LA Standard Deviation. He maintained a steady launch angle while hitting the ball hard. Unfortunately, he had a 0% barrel rate. This led me to believe he hit a lot of ground balls/struggled to elevate. After this, I found out Garcia played a majority of the year with the Royals. My suspicions were correct. Garcia had a 10th percentile barrel rate, a 6.1 degree average launch angle, and a 48.0% ground ball rate (which was lower than his 56.2% rate in AAA). Garcia’s key to success is going to be lowering that ground ball rate without sacrificing the hard contact.
The Royals might have a real star on their hands in 2024. To start, Garcia has an elite glove at third base. Him and Bobby Witt Jr. can hold down the left side of the infield with elite defense for years to come. They tied with Dansby Swanson and Nick Madrigal for the highest OAA of any SS/3B teammates in the league at 29. Now that we have the foundation of elite defense to fall back on, let's focus on the bat.
Do not let his numbers fool you, Garcia smashed the ball all year. We are not dealing with a small sample size either. In 515 plate appearances, Garcia posted a 50.6% hard hit rate which was good for the 93rd percentile. His average exit velocity of 91.8 mph also graded in the 87th percentile. A welcome surprise to his profile, Garcia was graded with 35 game power as a prospect but posted a 110.0 mph max exit velocity in 2023. That would not normally be a surprise considering how much hard contact he makes, but on top of a poor to nonexistent barrel rate, he only had a 106.7 max exit velocity in AAA, albeit with a much healthier 104.1 mph 95th percentile exit velocity. I believe in the power potential with Garcia, anyone should honestly. If he can find a way to keep the ball off the ground, he can do some serious damage this year.
2) Parker Meadows OF Tigers
Parker Meadows, younger brother of outfielder Austin Meadows, has had a long road to MLB. The 24-year-old was drafted out of high school known for his athleticism but struggled mightily from 2019-2021 before enjoying his first taste of success over a full season in 2022. 2022 remains the only full season where Meadows has been an above average offensive contributor. Despite the regression in 2023, Meadows saw a career high BB rate and maintained a respectable K rate.
In his little time with the Tigers, he established plus plate discipline with a 23.0% chase rate. He showed off a high floor talent by showing off his defensive range with 4 OAA which was complimented by posting 90th percentile sprint speed (29.0 ft/sec) to boot. Meadows naturally saw a slight decline in his contact quality in MLB, but his ability to pull the ball and elevate were positives despite the lack of production.Â
He will not be a big home run hitter, but with hitting 43.8% of his batted balls to the center of the field, should yield to better extra base hits in Comerica Park. His xStats were better than his actual stats. I like Meadows’ chances since he hits breaking balls and sinkers extremely well, while changeups get the best of him. A full MLB season in center field, plus further offensive development to reach 105-110 wRC+ or .325-.330 wOBA would ensure a breakout season.
3) Jonathan Aranda INF Rays
Aranda is the lone player on this list that is not a great defender or athlete and the reason he is third. His bat will be the carrying tool throughout his potential MLB career. In 199 total games in AAA, Aranda has raked to the tune of roughly a 150 wRC+. This year in AAA he had a 92.3 mph average exit velocity, a 113 mph max with a 95th percentile exit velocity of 106.8 mph.Â
While the success did not translate to the MLB, Aranda had multiple promising traits. He sported an elite BB rate, maintained roughly a league average, average exit velocity, and had a 43.9% hard hit rate which is likely in the 65-70th percentile range. His low launch angle is something that he will look to improve on as he was bottom of the league in sweet spot% and barrel%.Â
Aranda’s GB rate was just about 12% above the league average. If he can maintain his contact quality and lower his GB rate 10% to 44.4%, and subsequently raise his LD rate and FB rates 5% each to 19.0% and 36.6%, his results will look a lot better. This is the most important adjustment to me, if his batted ball profiles improve, the production will come.Â
Some other things I noticed were his plate discipline was good and outside of a good SwStr%, there was a little left to be desired with the IZ-Contact rates. These were a couple reasons why I was drawn to his profile when looking at the AAA statcast data. He posted a 22.6% OZ-Swing % in AAA and 30.9% in MLB. Couple that with an above average SwStr rate of 7.6% in AAA but 11.1% in MLB, and Aranda saw the same trend in his translations to MLB. Above average in AAA but regressed to the major league average in MLB.Â
Regression from AAA to MLB is obviously normal. However, like I said, everything regressed to league norms. His contact rate is also close to the league average and based on correlations to K rate, I would expect his K rate to drop a good amount from 30.1% to around a more comfortable 26-ish% over a full season. He ran a CS rate of almost double his SwStr rate which was a negative byproduct of his patient approach that produced a 12.6% BB rate, so I will take the good with the bad there.
The risks with Aranda are that he is the oldest player here, but he had the most success in AAA. That should be emphasized because Maikel Garcia (23 years old) played the whole year in MLB except for 24 games in AAA. Garcia had very similar batted ball issues as Aranda, but Garcia had good xStats and better contact quality. Other risks include having no defensive home and lacking athleticism. He hits the ball hard and walks a lot, two important aspects of a successful profile. I am going to give the Rays the benefit of the doubt to develop him into a productive starter (wherever he ends up playing).
HM: Johan Rojas OF Phillies
Rojas arguably does not fit the criteria. He is 23-years-old but was the Phillies’ #4 prospect per MLB.com and Fangraphs entering 2023. I would consider that highly regarded, but that could be up for debate since he was not a top 100 prospect.Â
Those paying attention to Richie Palacios’ gains this offseason, including his alleged increase of 7.4 mph to his max exit velocity are buying his stock, myself included. Palacios does not fit the criteria here and he is not as under the radar as I think the rest of these guys are. If anyone is on a similar path as Palacios, it is Rojas. Reports say that Rojas has put on some muscle (10 lbs) and he definitely looks bigger. Phillies manager Rob Thompson also spoke highly of him as the team appears to think highly of him.
The positive with Rojas is his high floor. He is a dynamic athlete that posts a combo of 70 run and fielding grades. Despite a 109 wRC+ and a .335 wOBA, everything else about Rojas’ profile screams below average and red flags. Unlike Palacios, the K and BB rates are both in the wrong direction. Some work with Kevin Long, Phillies hitting coach and renown for being one of the better hitting coaches in the game, was centered around giving Rojas more time to make better swing decisions and better contact quality. Those remarks are in the Rob Thompson video linked above for you to hear yourself.
Even if Rojas does not have an incredible breakout offensive season, the elite speed and defense are going to yield an extremely productive player if he gets everyday playing time. I am buying stock in this guy and as a Mets fan, am hoping he gets traded out of the NL East.
Who’s up next?
There are so many possible breakout candidates for 2024, but I wanted to find players I did not know as much about. I even had a list of four highly touted prospects I believe will breakout, but that was not as much fun. I would like to hear from all of you, who you believe will breakout in 2024 and why? As a Mets fan, I believe in the development of Brett Baty and Mark Vientos and am excited to watch them evolve this year. Who are you most excited to watch from your favorite team this year?