Owen Caissie: The 23-Year-Old Poised to Become Chicago's Next Star
What To Look For Ahead Of Owen Caissie's Debut
It was only a matter of time before we saw Owen Caissie get the call, as he’s posted some of the best power numbers in all of MiLB. Over 93 games, he’s hit 22 home runs, 69 runs, 52 RBI, a 13.1% walk rate, along with a .277 ISO and a strong .289/.389/.566 slash line, .416 wOBA, and 143 wRC+. Before diving into his 2025 profile, I want to highlight some improvements he’s made over the past year. While his 2025 sample is 34 games shorter than last season’s, the advanced profile looks fantastic. He’s raised his Hard-Hit% from 42.5% to 51.5% and his average exit velocity from 89.5 MPH to 91.9 MPH, all while creating a more optimized batted ball profile that suits his strengths. His Pull% has increased from 38.6% to 40.5%, his Cent% from 26.3% to 32.3%, and his Oppo% has dropped from 35.1% to 27.2%. He’s maintained the same line drive rate at 26.4%, but has cut his ground balls from 40.1% to 38.1% while lifting more balls in the air (33.4% to 35.5%).
Caissie is also showing better plate discipline this season. His overall swing rate has dropped by 1.8%, but he’s chasing fewer pitches outside the zone (O-Swing: 29.7% —25.8%) and making more contact when he does (O-Zone Contact: 47.5% —51.9%). His Z-Contact% is up 0.8%, overall Contact% has up 2.9%, and he’s lowered both his SwStr% and CSW% rates. He’s cut his Chase% from 27.3% to 24.9%, reduced his whiff rate from 32.1% to 28.6%, and has improved his walk rate from 12.5% to 13.2%. Known for his elite power output and plus-plus quality of contact, Caissie’s expected stats show how good his actual and future production could look. His .378 xwOBA ranks in the 90th percentile, .259 xBA in the 75th, and .513 xSLG in the 92nd. He pairs that with an average exit velocity of 91.9 MPH (89th percentile) and a max EV of 113.3 MPH (94th percentile). His 17.5% barrel rate is among the best in all of MiLB (95th percentile), and his 52.4% hard-hit rate ranks in the 92nd. Both his 50th and 90th percentile exit velocities are in the top 6% of AAA.
Caissie punishes fastballs, especially sinkers and cutters, posting xBAs over .350 and xSLGs above .648 against both, without notable whiff concerns. He also handles changeups well, though breaking balls remain a challenge in terms of whiff and strikeouts for him (this is a concern for me). When I was looking at his zone success rates, he’s doing the most damage on middle-in, middle-middle, and middle-away pitches. He hammers Zone 1 offerings with a .560 xwOBA and .424 xBA, along with Zone 9, a .364 xwOBA and .485 xBA. Despite good xBAs in Zones 2, 3, and 7, his xwOBAs don’t reflect them.
While Caissie hasn’t made any significant swing changes from 2023 to 2025, there have been subtle adjustments. From 2024 to 2025, his footing in the box has shifted slightly, and his posture has become more upright at the start of his load. I also think starting his bat plane where he was already getting to in 2023–2024 is much more ideal. There’s not as much for him to do right before he swings, and he doesn’t have as much wasted movement, which I think should help him get to MLB velocity and hopefully stay on breaking balls longer.
Owen Caissie remains one of my favorite prospects in all of baseball. His advanced approach, power-driven batted ball profile, and consistent quality of contact make him a legitimate threat to make an impact right away. Cubs fans have been waiting for this moment, and now they will finally get to see him at the MLB level!
Data Credit:
Fangraphs.com
ProspectSavant.com
Thanks for reading!
—OPS
Great analysis! Good read!
Unfortunately I read about playing time but we know if the bat keeps talking, cubs need to find spot to keep him in the line up