One Pick For Every Game on Opening Day
A Blog by Greg
Opening Day is almost here, and so is our first full day of baseball games to bet on. If the sheer volume of baseball games this Thursday overwhelms you, rest assured. In this article I’m going to provide and break down one bet for each of the games being played. Unfortunately, some of the specific player props will not be available until a few hours before first pitch, so most of the wagers I discuss will be moneylines and totals.
Warning: This article will be based mostly on “vibes” rather than actual data or analytics. Since 26 of the 28 teams are playing their first regular season game of the year, I don’t see the purpose of breaking down statistics and trends from the 2024 season or 2025 Spring Training. Enjoy the article and hopefully we make some money this opening day!
Yankees vs. Brewers (Yankees ML -150)
As a Yankees fan, Carlos Rodon is not the Opening Day starter I was hoping for, but he is the one I got, so I have to support him. Would I rather have (a healthy) Gerrit Cole take the mound to start the Yankees’ 2025 campaign? Of course! However, Cole is out for the year, and I still have to watch and support the Yankees for 162 games (hopefully more), and that starts with game number 1 against the Brewers. Give me the Bronx Bombers on the road!
Orioles vs. Blue Jays (Blue Jays +100)
I am definitely not an Orioles fan, and truthfully, I do not know any Orioles fans in my real life. However, I am inferring that they have to be disappointed that Zach Eflin is their Opening Day starter. The O’s downgrading from Corbin Burnes in 2024 to Zach Eflin in 2025 is definitely a sign of concern for the team in Baltimore. Starting the season on the road against a division rival with Zach Eflin on the mound is a recipe for disaster for the Orioles. I’m not super confident in this one, but give me the Blue Jays ML at plus money.
Red Sox vs. Rangers (Rangers ML -110)
Like many, I am excited to see what this heavily hyped Red Sox is really all about. However, I am also very high on the Rangers this season and am giving the advantage to the home team and the veteran starter in Nathan Eovaldi. I think this will be an exciting game, but at this price I have to bet on Texas.
Phillies vs. Nationals (Under 7.5 Runs)
I think this is going to be an ugly one on the offensive end. Zach Wheeler against MacKenzie Gore is a very solid pitching matchup that will result in a limited amount of runs early in the game. I was very close to betting Washington straight up on the moneyline (+150), but I think the under is the safer play. I think Philadelphia will struggle throughout the entirety of the 2025 season, and that starts with a low-scoring effort against a division rival.
Guardians vs. Royals (Royals ML -130)
It is no secret that I am a huge Cole Ragans fan (I have him winning the AL Cy Young this year). Anytime Ragans takes the mound, I am inclined to give a significant edge to Kansas City. If this wasn’t Opening Day, the Royals would be closer to a -150 or -175 favorite, so take advantage of this price and bet on the Royals to win.
Angels vs. White Sox (Over 8 Runs)
This is easily the worst matchup of the entire slate. Two of the four worst teams (shoutout to the Athletics and Rockies) are facing off on Thursday, and I have a difficult time backing either side here. I will likely not place a moneyline wager on the White Sox this season, and I can’t justify betting on this Angels squad at around -160. For that reason, I am betting on the offenses scoring more than 8 runs in this not very anticipated affair.
Giants vs. Reds (Reds ML -110)
This is another game that is a true toss-up in my opinion. However, I am backing Cincinnati because their starting pitcher is Hunter Greene. It is no secret that I have been supporting the Reds for almost three years now, and while I do think the Giants and their Opening Day starter, Logan Webb, are solid, I have to put my money where my mouth is. I am betting on the Reds at even odds to start the season with a victory against San Francisco.
Mets vs. Astros (Astros ML -132)
As a Yankees fan, it truly hurts me that I have to pick a side in this matchup. However, as a baseball fan, this is easily one of the most intriguing matchups of the entire Opening Day slate. I am giving the slight nod to Houston for two reasons in particular: starting pitcher and home field advantage. Clay Holmes’ first test as a starting pitcher being against a really solid Astros lineup on the road is not ideal for the Mets. I’m putting my Yankees fandom to the side and betting on the Astros to start the regular season with a win.
Braves vs. Padres (Braves ML -130)
Again, this is a game that would be priced significantly differently if it wasn’t being played on Opening Day. Not only are the Braves a much better team than the Padres, but they are also trotting out the defending NL Cy Young Award winner as their starter. I think Michael King is a fine pitcher, and he certainly had an impressive year in 2024; however, I do not have faith in either the Padres or King. Give me the Braves to win on the road against this dumpster fire of a Padres squad.
Pirates vs. Marlins (Over 6.5 Runs)
For many unbiased observers, this matchup is the most intriguing of all of the 14 matchups being played on Thursday. In particular, fans are excited to watch two NL Cy Young hopefuls in Paul Skenes and Sandy Alcantara duke it out in Miami. Skenes, the odds-on favorite to win the NL Cy Young, and Alcantara, Dean Ciriaco’s pick to win the award this season, are a dynamite matchup and should be very exciting. But I am going against the grain here and betting the over on the run total. The line is preposterously low, even considering the pitching matchup, and I intend to take full advantage of it. Alcantara hasn’t pitched since 2023 and could very reasonably be rusty on Thursday. Additionally, neither team has a strong bullpen, so even if Alcantara and Skenes excel, seven or more runs could realistically be scored after the starters have left the game. I really like the Pirates and Marlins to score more than 6.5 runs on Opening Day.
Twins vs. Cardinals (Cardinals ML -110)
While I am not a huge fan of either of these ball clubs, I am intrigued by this matchup. Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray is certainly a good pitching matchup between two veteran aces on below-average teams. I am betting on the Cardinals because of their home field advantage and the fact that I am slightly more confident in the more experienced pitcher, Gray, on the hill for the Cardinals compared to Lopez for the Twins.
Tigers vs. Dodgers (Tigers ML +128)
The Dodgers have already played two regular season games thanks to the Tokyo Series. Despite LA going 2-0 in their limited series against the Cubs, I am going to fade the odds-on favorite to win the World Series on Opening Day. The Tigers are sending out defending Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, and I think the Dodgers’ offense will come out flat after their unique start to the season having to travel across the world.
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks (Diamondbacks ML -150)
Similarly to the aforementioned Dodgers, the Chicago Cubs have already played a pair of games in the 2025 regular season. The Cubs struggled in both contests and came home from Japan sporting a 0-2 record. Additionally, the Cubs’ home opener is against a team and pitcher I am very bullish on for the 2025 season. I think that the Diamondbacks and their opening day starter, Zac Gallen, will cause trouble for this Chicago squad, and the Cubs will continue their disappointing start to the season with another loss.
Athletics vs Mariners (Mariners ML -175)
Rounding out our electric slate of games on Thursday is a disappointing matchup between AL West teams. The Athletics will travel to Seattle to take on the Mariners to open the season, and while -175 is a steep price to pay, I have no choice but to fade the A’s. The Athletics are a mess of an organization from their ownership to their players, and sending out newly acquired Luis Severino to open the season does not change my mind about the state of the squad formerly from Oakland. The Mariners are an elite team with an elite pitching staff, and I believe this game will mirror how the AL West will look at the end of the 2025 season: Seattle on top and the Athletics on the bottom.
Thanks for reading everybody! Make sure to follow me on X (GRMbets) and let me know if you placed any of the bets I discussed in this article.