“OCBaseball’s Mets Offseason Plan”
“OCBaseball’s Mets Offseason Plan”
Retro to 12/17/23
This outline is based on the statements that the Mets intend to use this upcoming offseason and 2024 to re-tool (not rebuild) to become competitive World Series contenders. A large part of this re-tooling process should (in my opinion) include letting lots of young players gain valuable experience in what could be a low-stress environment to minimize pressure and maximize growth from their time in the show. The other important piece to re-tool (again, in my opinion) is to spend heavily on the relief pitching market. Over the years, the Royals have been one of the best teams at doing this. They pick up FA relievers regardless of age, develop them and guide them to successful seasons. Come the deadline, they are valuable pitchers that they flip for prospects. The Mets’ newly invested pitching lab (which will be referenced frequently) has already provided dividends on projects like David Peterson at the big league level. Followed by the success of minor league pitching prospects, most notably the emergence and breakouts of Chirstian Scott and Tyler Stuart.
Contrary to some beliefs, I don’t think the Mets need to spend more than everyone else in the MLB to win a World Series. In fact, I personally prefer staying under the luxury tax to win. The luxury of having an owner that can spend that much money is the fact that they can spend that much money, not necessarily that they should. Steve Cohen has the capability to sign his young stars to long-term contracts and/or go make a big splash in free agency. I prefer the former and I think given the chance, everyone would take a page out of the Braves’ book, but I digress. I do not see a good enough reason to go spend money and sign multiple free agents to long-term contracts this offseason. That is not the same as extending Pete Alonso (which will come up later). Anyway, why don’t we get into what exactly I think the Mets should do this offseason.
Linked Table of Contents to Each Section:
Backup Relief Pitchers/Minor League Contracts:
Free Agents:
These values are based on what I would offer players, not necessarily what I believe they are worth. It is based on a combination of perceived market value, my research on contracts given to comparable players, and how much I want to give a player relative to the team’s financial situation. I will be spending mostly on the relief market, but being under the luxury tax is pretty much out of reach with the Scherzer and Verlander trades. This will be about limiting long-term deals and getting value for the amount of money we spend. The 2024 draft is far too important, and since this is the highest we should be drafting for a long time, losing picks is not worth it. Our 2025 draft will be hit with luxury tax penalties as is, so it is important to front load the reliever contracts to lower our luxury tax for the next few years to eliminate the consecutive year penalties.
Blooper Reel: I initially wanted to go in on Cody Bellinger and Sonny Gray, after seeing they received the qualifying offer, I decided otherwise. Overpaying or overcommitting to players is not a smart move when the following free agent classes have better top end talent and the team will be in a better position financially. I had already written assessments for Gray, Bellinger and more, so those will be attached at the end of the document after the conclusion for those interested in what I thought.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto RHSP: 6 Years - $175 million ($29.167 million AAV) + 7th Year Mutual Option ($30 million) Total Money 7 Years - $205 million (29.29 AAV)
Introduction: Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been as impressive as any NPB pitcher ever. There is no doubt about that. However, I have my reservations about how he could translate to the MLB and would only prefer to sign him for the right price. I have never been a fan of overpaying players just to get them except in rare circumstances. I believe this is how teams end up handcuffing themselves with their luxury tax and team payrolls over time. Shorter contracts like Max Scherzer’s proved to be rather painless with 1.5 years on the Mets and 1.5 with another team in exchange for a better prospect. On the other hand, there are many examples of large contracts that do not pan out down the line that are holding teams back.
Performance: Yamamoto has what many scouts say a full arsenal of plus pitches. Depending on who you ask, Yamamoto either sits 93-94 or 93-95 which in my opinion, makes a good difference. He has five pitches that can all grade as at least a 55 and threw his fastball about 45% in 2023. I think it would benefit him greatly if he started throwing the fastball much less, around 8-10% less. Kodai Senga only threw three pitches over 6% which was his FF, cutter, and ghost-fork. I cannot say for certain but there likely is some connection to the lack of pitch distribution and contact quality against the rest of his repertoire. Both his FF and cutter had xSLG at or over .400 in 2023 so I think for both pitchers it is important to distribute their repertoires. The right pitch mix needs to be found however with how much the FF and splitter/ghost-fork play off each other. Senga had many looking strikeouts on fastballs down the middle that look like his ghost-fork. Senga’s 37.1% FF usage makes me believe that Yamamoto has plenty of room to mix around his other pitches.
The control Yamamoto exhibited has been elite with a sub 2.00 BB/9 in 2023 and he fills up the zone with all his pitches. He had a 70+% strike rate with his FF, cutter and curveball. The splitter is hard and compares very well to Alex Cobb’s splitter which wasn’t elite. It had a Stuff+ of 78 but it paired well with a sinker that had a Stuff+ of 92. Cobb throws a sinker primarily and his splitter movement matches the sinker helping deceive hitters. Yamamoto’s fastball may have some ASR but it doesn’t sink. The two pitches likely won’t look the same out of the hand but I doubt that will have any negative effect on their performance once he comes stateside. Kevin Gausman is the notable starting pitcher who throws a FF with some ASR and a splitter that has 16 in. of horizontal break compared to Cobb’s 13 in. With the right shapes it won’t necessarily matter that Yamamoto isn’t throwing a sinker to couple with his hard splitter. Yamamoto’s cutter will play a huge role in helping keep batters off balance. Senga saw huge success with his cutter having a 17 run value on savant. The cutter should bridge the FF and sweeper very well and considering Yamamoto will be facing significantly more righties in the MLB than NPB, that might be necessary to prevent any growing pains.
Now I’ll get into my reservations for Yamamoto. First and foremost is that there is no way to tell how he will translate to the MLB. Different balls, mounds, fields, competition, environment, etc. Guys like Snell or Nola, the other top pitchers on the market are proven in the MLB; so while they may not be as good as Yamamoto, you know what you are getting with them. I do not see his size as an issue, he is athletic and has a smooth, repeatable and effortless delivery. That is all I will say about it. Moving on to his arsenal. My big concern could be a double edged sword. Two big reasons I was huge on Kodai Senga was 1) his fastball was upper 90s and he topped at 99.8 in 2023 along with 52 FF 98.0 or higher. 2) Senga had a niche, his ghost-fork. He was different, he had that elite pitch that no matter what we knew would see success. This is why it could end up being double edged. Like I said earlier, Senga was pretty much a three pitch starter. This is why the ghost-fork really stands out. His breaking ball run value on savant was -3 but there is likely a usage issue to that. His curveball was the least used pitch, probably should be used more and could be a good called strike pitch to buckle hitters. He has a sweeper and a slider but 45.45% of his sweepers were against lefties and the slider was predominately used against righties (76.83%). Yamamoto can have 5 pitches at a 55 or better so it can be pretty hard to determine one as a niche or his specialty. Senga’s high 90s fastball provided him with a lot of forgiveness and Yamamoto probably will not get that kind of luck with a 93-94 mph FF. Lastly, and easiest to improve, command. Yamamoto’s control is elite. He fills up the zone with all of his pitches. However, some reports I’ve read spoke about some struggles to necessarily spot his pitches. Filling up the zone with a 90 mph splitter that can get flat at times will not end well in the MLB. Yamamoto was able to get a lot of weak contact since his stuff was so good, but that may change in the MLB if he isn’t hitting corners and leaving pitches over the middle of the plate, regardless of specs. There is a lot to like about Yamamoto, and despite my reservations I still think he is going to be a valuable pitcher which is why I am okay with paying him. I will not just jump ship and believe him to be an ace or top tier starter without seeing how he translates to the MLB and just because the market is bare. He could end up being a SP3 and definitely not worth $28 million per year. A six year contract is what makes the risk much more acceptable and the risk is why I refuse to go more than seven years without options.
Contract: In the last few years, the market started shifting towards paying SP3 and SP4 a lot more money. This could be the phase of a bad market period, but it is hard to ignore guys like Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon getting $17 & $18 million AAV for 4+ years past age 30. That’s a lot of money to give to SP4 when teams should be able to find greater bang for their buck at that position. Even if a team spends $10+ million less for their SP4 with a dropoff in production, that is still $10+ that could be better spent elsewhere to improve the team.
There are plenty of scenarios where some players have likely taken less than they would have received in free agency to stay with their team and those are pitchers like Luis Castillo and Joe Musgrove. Both are at least solid SP2s that are 3.4 WAR players yet they are making the same as a solid SP3 in Chris Bassitt who is a 2.6 WAR player.
There is not a great age comparison to help predict what kind of contract Yamamoto should receive. He will be 25 for a majority of the 2024 season so I will be considering 2024 his age 25 season. Since I think he matches up very well with Aaron Nola, I would expect a $25-$27 million AAV for Yamamoto. I like that AAV but there are multiple reports that Yamamoto and his camp are looking to break the $200 million mark. That would require at least one of two conditions to be met based on the contract structure above; he will need to receive eight or more years or make over a $28.5 million AAV. I would prefer to stay short of eight years and really would not like to go seven years guaranteed either without knowing that Yamamoto is proven in the MLB. Since I do not want to commit to more years, I’ll have to sacrifice AAV if there is any chance Yamamoto will sign.
Conclusion: I could be biased to my reasoning here but there are a couple reasons why I think this contract is actually ideal for Yamamoto. Inferring that Ohtani has a greater AAV and Nola is under $28 million AAV, my offer to Yamamoto would make him the 8th highest paid pitcher in the MLB in AAV and the 18th highest paid player in the MLB in AAV. Yamamoto still gets paid well making $170 million in guaranteed money over six years. If he performs well, up to high end SP2 standard, the $30 million mutual option can be exercised and he makes $200 million in seven years. Now lets say that Yamamoto ends up being an SP3 and the Mets determine his mutual option to be too pricey; he will reenter the market in the 2029-2030 offseason entering his age 31 season in 2030. Yamamoto could easily gain another long term contract due to his age and make another $100-$150 million easily. That is in today’s market, who knows what a SP3 contract will look like in six years. The mutual option works both ways too. If Yamamoto ends up being the ace many people think he can be, he could reenter the market entering his age 31 season and look for a Gerrit Cole esque contract to the tune of six to eight years for a $30+ million AAV. Even with the mutual option being exercised, Yamamoto is still a free agent ahead of the 2031 season and will be a free agent ahead of his age 32 season. He can still earn a big contract and teams will be more willing to go long term the younger Yamamoto is. Yamamoto’s size will certainly factor into organizations’ decisions about how long his contract should be when he is in his thirties. The younger Yamamoto gets into the market, the greater his chance at more stability and guaranteed money. Despite the years being less than what his camp may want, I still see this offer as ideal and should be a competitive offer for Yamamoto especially with his ties to Kodai Senga and the Mets.
Edit: I have gotten increasingly more excited about him since writing this piece and want the Mets to do what is necessary to sign him. I know there is going to be a bidding war for Yamamoto and with the state of the starting pitching market and those that received the qualifying offer, the Mets are going to have to give in this bidding war and go after him. My offer would go up to 6 Years - $190 million ($31.67 million AVV) + 7th Year $35 million Mutual Option for $225 million Total over 7 Years ($32.14 million AAV) with ease if the competition raises it to that point. I would still shy away from a guaranteed 7th year and continue upping the AAV and offering incentives to the deal to get it done. Regardless, if the Mets want to compete for a World Series this year, they are going to have to do what it takes to sign Yamamoto, since there is no other SP1 option that will cost less value. Yamamoto also can potentially be eligible for the Prospect Promotion Incentive draft pick depending on if ESPN posts him on their preseason top 100 prospects list. This makes Yamamoto even more valuable if it happens.
Tommy Pham OF: 2 Years - $18 million ($9 million AAV) ($10 million in Year 1 - $8 Million in Year 2)
Introduction: Any team that is looking for outfield help would be remiss to not consider Tommy Pham. Unless a team does not think he is a culture fit, the peripherals provide a lot to bet on. Based on the comments he made and others about him, it should not be a secret to anyone that Pham’s work ethic is through the roof. It seems quite clear that the Mets need a presence like that in the clubhouse. The impact Pham had was reinforced by the culture in Arizona. It was evident as he seemed to have positively impacted that young core. The Baby Mets were not all up during Pham’s time with the Mets. With the transitional phase they could be in, leadership like Pham’s is going to be important. Lindor specifically gave praise to Pham’s work ethic and I think the leaders in the clubhouse would enjoy a reunion with him. Now all that is left is a mutual feeling from Pham. He noted how talented the team was and they just underperformed so it could be possible that he is interested in coming back to pick up where they left off.
Performance: The straight answer is that this guy could easily be the most bang for your buck hitter on the market. You are not going to find that much game power for that price anywhere else on this market. A quick look at his savant page will make you think you are at a crime scene with red up and down. He hits the ball very hard, a lot. There are three things that Pham has been well above average in his whole career. Average EV, hard hit% and chase%. Since 2015, none of those metrics have been below the 77th percentile and only twice have any one of them been below the 80th percentile. Both of these occurrences were his average EV in 2019 (79th percentile) and 2021 (76th percentile). His average EV in these years were almost identical at 90.9 (2019) and 90.8 (2021). While those metrics remain a staple of his profile, there were a few adjustments he did make this year that may have played a much larger role in why his turnaround was so evident. He cut his whiff and K rate to a better clip than they were in 2021. He regressed big time in 2022 in those areas so eliminating whiffs and Ks was a big help. In addition to that, Pham lowered his launch angle again. From 2015 through 2020, Pham had one year with a launch angle over 6.9 degrees. In 2021 and 2022 his launch angles were 7.6 and 7.7 degrees. He lowered his launch angle and had the best line drive percentage since 2018 when he had a 130 wRC+. His Oppo% dropped significantly and his Cent% increased. Pham was keeping the ball lower while still hitting it hard. This might not provide the value some people want, but it seems clear that Pham is better when he is not trying to elevate the ball. His home run total did not change anyway so that is not anything to be worrisome about. Pham can split time between left field and designated hitter if need be. He has good arm strength and uses it well but was a -2 OAA outfielder last year. No one is paying him to be a zeroed out or plus defender so I do not care about the defensive metrics.
Conclusion: The leadership and influence Pham can have on this clubhouse is a massive part of why I would really like to bring him back. If the Mets want to turn away from not working hard and the dysfunction in the clubhouse, this is the guy that can help change that. He has the support of your leaders, and bringing in a couple more guys like this will help set the tone for some young rookies that might be the core of New York’s future. Financially, it is a front loaded contract that would make him easier to trade in year two. The structure I have set up is still going to be over the luxury tax and there is not much I can do about that if we want to bring in people to win. I believe that Tommy Pham is more important to Mets’ future success than Cody Bellinger with what he brings in the clubhouse while also helping the team win next year as well.
Trevor Bauer RHSP: 1 Year - $20 million + 2nd Year Mutual Option ($25 million) (Incentives: $1 million - CY Young Finalist, $3 million - CY Young winner, $500K - 175 IP, $500K - 200 IP) (Total Potential Money - $24 million through 1 Year, $53 million through 2 Years) (Projected 2024 Luxury Tax Salary - $20.25 million)
Introduction: Performance wise, Bauer offers a low-risk high-reward starting pitching option. He comes in as the SP3 at an affordable price. I’ll echo the same reasons I wanted the Mets to sign him three years ago; the intelligence he brings to an organization looking to increase its analytical presence is invaluable. We have not seen another pitcher display the level of knowledge of pitching analytics and baseball as we have with Bauer. That does not mean there are no other pitchers that have a high level of intelligence and comprehension, but we have seen it with Bauer. The jury is split between Mets fans between those that want Bauer and those that do not. Many think he will be a distraction and the team does not need this after what happened in 2022. However, if you feel that way, I implore you to ponder this. Is it possible that the attention Bauer would be bringing to the team can help take pressure and spotlight off our young players to allow them to play more freely if someone else is always in the headlines? Now, I cannot answer this inquiry, but it really makes me wonder if there is a positive that could come from the attention Bauer may bring to Queens. Lindor and Carrasco had vouched for Bauer as a positive teammate and Mookie Betts put out that he enjoyed playing with Bauer as well.
Performance: Bauer pitched very well in the NPB to the tune of 130.2 innings in 19 games which is 6.88 innings pitched per game. With the Baystars he showed great control, walking only 2.1 batters per 9 innings. He looks like he may have made some adjustments this year as his strikeout numbers decreased in a worse offensive league and his walks rate lowered to a 2.1 great spot. These adjustments or approach to pitching may have been an attempt to throw fewer pitches to work deeper in games. Bauer and his camp often tweeted about highlight points of his season including tweeting about Bauer still maintaining 97 mph late in games. Despite the bullpen overhaul you will read about later, the Mets need their starters to go deeper in games.
I do think that the lower strikeout numbers show that Bauer can also pitch to contact instead of solely focusing on striking out players. I do not have the statcast data from the NPB this season to know exactly that Bauer increased on poor average EV, barrel% and hard hit% percentiles in 2021. I am going off that inference also indicated by a 0.96 HR/9 which is a 0.63 decrease from 2021 with the Dodgers. This is important because of the versatility he possesses. In his lone half-year with the Dodgers, he got hit very hard. His average EV, barrel%, hard hit% and ground ball% were all below the 23rd percentile. He was giving up hard contact in the air. He still performed extremely well but a 1.59 HR/9 ballooned his FIP to a 4.03, a little unappetizing next to a 2.59 ERA. His curveball was hit really well and I would like to see some adjustments to the curveball at the very minimum, the usage or usage% in certain situations.
I love the fact that he was able to see a lot of success in the NPB without having a K/9 over 9.0. We have seen that he can post elite strikeout numbers in the MLB and the fact that he did not in the NPB is a plus in my opinion. If he can bring the ability to pitch to weak contact back state-side, he could be a great anchor in the Mets rotation behind Yamamoto and Senga.
He pitched on the same team as Shota Imanaga who is expected to make $17 million AAV give or take. His contract is expected to be longer term. Bauer is going to need a fresh start and may not be looking for a long term contract quite yet. He has said multiple times that he wanted to continuously sign one year contracts in free agency. He will probably want to reestablish himself as one of the better pitchers in the MLB and may not get paid like one in 2024.
Conclusion: The Mets were as close to signing Trevor Bauer ahead of the 2021 season as any team has been to signing a free agent. Hopefully there is still interest from Bauer’s side and a big market could be a good way for him to get over the stigma that has been held over his head for three years. Bauer is bringing an intelligent, competitive starting pitcher that has been proven at the MLB level and can pitch deep into games averaging 6.02 IP/GS (1,275.2 IP in 212 GS) throughout his MLB career. His value is lower now than it will ever be and he will be playing for a team that gives him a chance to win a World Series. There are positive scenarios that can come from the attention he will bring and if you believe in the talent, this is the best value starting pitcher on the market.
Edit: I would be completely fine with signing Shota Imanaga this offseason as well. He is going to sign a longer contract and I think Bauer provides more flexibility to any moves the Mets can make in the future. Bauer, like I said, is proven in the MLB and Imanaga has not pitched in the MLB yet but he certainly looks promising. Signing Imanaga for a contract even remotely to Kodai Senga would be great for the Mets to lock up their SP2 and SP3 for just over $30 million AAV for the next 4+ years.
Relief Pitchers:
I will not be spending too much time on each individual reliever. I still think the Mets are in a bit of a transitional phase with the state of their pitching prospects. Many of them need to continue developing in 2024 and should not be required to come up and perform for a championship chasing team. As referenced in the introduction, my faith in the pitching lab is strong and that the organization can make the most of these arms. Many of them are older as is much of the relief market.
Aside from Diaz and Raley, I am going after free agents to fill the six remaining spots in the bullpen. Drew Smith and Trevor Gott are two notable relievers that are still with the club. They will have their own sections after all the free agent relievers elaborating on what I think the Mets should do with them. The list will continue from the top, therefore the first reliever will be number 3). This makes it easier for you to see how many free agents we sign instead of having to scroll back up to get the final number.
Andrew Chafin LHP: 2 Years - $11 million ($5.875 million AAV) + 3rd Year Club Option - $4 million ($750K Buyout)
Introduction: Chafin has been a steady left handed reliever the past few seasons excluding 2020. Left handed relievers are not the easiest commodity to come by and the Mets have long struggled to have more than one left handed presence in their bullpen. I was big on signing him last offseason and a rough 2023 makes him an easy buy low candidate for me.
Performance: A three pitch mix guy, Chafin has a higher release and a heavy sinker with 15.3 in of horizontal movement. The slider has been a staple of his success for years and has not failed to get outs. He has been a good strikeout pitcher and when he can also keep the ball on the ground, he is outstanding. In 2023, his usage on the sinker and slider went up, limiting the FF usage. The FF was his worst pitch but I think more balanced usage could help get him back where he was in 2022.
Conclusion: He became a two pitch guy in 2023 so when hitters are expecting a sinker and they get a straighter FF, it could appear to be a mistake. I think a big rebound is in store for Chafin and the Mets should be all over it.
Joe Kelly RHP: 2 Years - $19 million ($9 million AAV) + 3rd Year Club Option - $8.75 million ($1 million Buyout)
Introduction: He throws really hard, is really competitive, insanely intense, and has sometimes struggled to stay healthy. Kelly has been on the perennial World Series contending Dodgers for three and a half of the last five years. He has been a part of the standard of winning for a long time dating back to the Red Sox. I love his intensity and love the emotion he will bring to New York. He is one of those guys that ties in with Tommy Pham that are going to raise the bar for the standard in Queens. In terms of right handed relievers, this is the guy I want.
Performance: Kelly would be one of two setup guys behind Edwin Diaz and he can enter into late innings and high leverage situations, get ground balls, limit hard contact and strike a lot of guys out. He has power stuff and is going to come right after hitters. There isn’t too much to say about him, the savant page is bright red, his walk rate is high, the expected stats really like him. Outside of the injury history, it is a pretty cut and dry decision for a team severely lacking relief performance.
Conclusion: Joe Kelly’s electric personality would be refreshing and well received in New York. He has proven that he can perform in big markets in Los Angeles and Boston. He fits the mold and he has shown a similar care to winning as Steve Cohen. No excuses, go out there and win. This is one of the players I would sign with no intentions of trading.
Robert Stephenson RHP: 3 Years - $30 million ($10 million AAV)
Introduction: The Rays struck gold again, this time with Stephenson. Playing with the Reds, Rockies and Pirates, Stephenson has been a very good reliever over the past five seasons. He made his way to Pittsburgh after getting released by the Rockies due to a poor first half of 2022. He pitched very well for the Pirates throughout the remainder of 2022. Stephenson got worse in just about every way through 14 innings for the Pirates this year before trading him to the Rays. Despite the regression, Stephenson was carrying a 10.93 K/9 over to Tampa Bay. Boy did the Rays work their magic on this one.
Performance: After being acquired from the Pirates, the Rays quickly worked a cutter into Stephenson’s repertoire. They knew he had a history of controlling the strike zone and limiting walks. It was a matter of making slight adjustments to get him back there. The cutter paid massive dividends for him as he easily posted his best season to date with the Rays. Deploying a dominant cutter despite a 99 Stuff+, he ran up a +17 run value with the pitch. His slider continued to perform well but his fastball actually got worse. There was a lot of separation in the movement profiles of the fastball and slider which the cutter helped greatly but I think the fastball can be worked on.
Stephenson does not get a lot of extension but he has a low–ish release and good ride on the FF. That gives me reason to believe the FF can be worked on and not scraped from the pitch mix. His 11.6 inches of horizontal break on the FF could still be too much horizontal separation from the cutter and slider to improve the performance. Straightening out the FF 2-4 inches could improve the movement profile enough to make his FF a viable pitch and improve the whole arsenal. If these adjustments do not work. Looking to add a sinker into the mix could help keep hitters guessing so they are not held to just sitting on 85-90 mph sliders and cutters.
Conclusion: Even without making adjustments to the FF, Stephenson showed just how dominant his cutter is and how it improves his slider as well. He is not a one pitch reliever and provides a very positive outlook. His FF played very poorly and the success he saw in 2023 is very encouraging. It is easy to think that a FF tweak is the only thing preventing him from complete dominance as a reliever. The floor is high based on 2023 and the ceiling is through the roof if the whole arsenal comes around. The price might be a little steep (and could come down if there are no competing offers); even so, if the Mets see the same potential I see, it would be justified if they think they can reach his potential.
Phil Maton RHP: 3 Years - $16.75 million ($5.583 million AAV) ($6 million in Year 1 - 5.375 million in Years 2 & 3)
Introduction: If Maton was not pitching for the Astros, in the playoffs every year, he would probably be a lesser known name. He is one of the younger relievers on the market and might garner quite a bit of attention. The Mets struggled at keeping the game in reach this year when their starter was unable to go deep into games. Maton can fill an important role keeping games in check.
Performance: A few things he has always done is limit hard hit balls while not throwing hard and never getting many ground balls. He had a down year in 2022 but since the start of 2020, he made adjustments to really improve his whiff rate and K rate all without sacrificing the low EVs. He excelled in the middle innings of the game and can be a great reliever to hold the game where it is when starters exit.
Conclusion: I am a big fan of bullpen roles. A lot of guys fall into their roles too. It is tough when you have a closer and go trade for another closer to make him the setup guy. There are multiple cases of relievers not succeeding in the setup role. Maton can dominate the middle innings and get a lot of holds for this bullpen. The loss of Edwin Diaz was massive for the 2023 Mets; but it does not hurt as much when he wouldn’t have been pitching much anyway without a lead in the ninth. A three year contract for a younger reliever is an easy call for me and gives a lot of time for rebound in case he has a down year.
Brent Suter LHP: 2 Years - $9.5 million ($4.75 million AAV) ($6 million in Year 1 - $3.5 million in Year 2)
Introduction: Suter was a very under the radar reliever last year and is this year too. He might not be a flashy reliever throwing mid 90s or striking out 10 batters per nine innings, but he has been very consistent over his career. In six seasons as a reliever, he has never had an ERA over 4.0 and yielded a FIP over 4.0 twice. He is a great complimentary piece to have for the middle innings.
Performance: Suter practically eliminated home runs from his statsheet this year. Signing with the Rockies, he only gave up 3 home runs in 69.1 innings, good for a 0.39 HR/9. He pitches to contact and he sure is good at it. This will sound a little familiar, but since he entered the league, his average EV, barrel% and hard hit% have only been below the 75th percentile once. His average EV has never been below the 95th percentile and his hard hit% has only been below the 90th percentile twice (87th percentile in 2020, 80th percentile in 2021). While Suter has been one of the slowest throwing pitchers in the MLB, he gets some of the best extension in the league helping his pitches sneak up on hitters and induce weak contact. This is a guy that has mastered his craft and being a Harvard alum, it is not hard to see why.
Conclusion: Suter completes the unit of lefties and should be an important reliever that should rack up holds for the Mets. The good infield defense combined with above average ground ball rates should be complimentary throughout his tenure in Queens. Suter helps complete this bullpen with all its roles.
Reynaldo Lopez RHP: 3 Years - $27 million ($9 million AAV)
Introduction: Lopez provides a younger and intriguing option for the Mets. This is most likely the biggest gamble with one of the better ceilings of the group. There truthfully is some unknown with what Lopez’s future performances will look like. He has been a great reliever for a few years now but has been overshadowed by an underperforming White Sox team.
Performance: Lopez’s stuff has progressively gotten better each year according to Stuff+. He has also slightly increased his K/9 numbers each season but marginally. He finally broke out with a 125 Stuff+ and 11.32 K/9. There is more potential untapped. He was not with the Guardians long but he didn’t throw his curveball there and Chicago was the only team this year that utilized his complete arsenal. The sample size with the other teams is not large enough to make any real determinations about him.
I would prefer not to be redundant and just recycle ideas and this time I really am not sure it is needed. However, Reynaldo Lopez is a candidate to benefit from adding a cutter as well. Matt Brash saw a lot of improvement to his repertoire with the addition of a cutter this year even if the cutter itself was not great. 2023 Lopez is in a better spot with better stuff than 2022 Brash was. Brash has two incredible breaking balls whereas Lopez only has one. On the flip side, Lopez has a great FF while Brash’s was a 105 Stuff+. The prominence of the FF and slider dominating Lopez’s pitch usage supports the call for a cutter. As does the fact that his 135 Stuff+ slider produced a 24.5% CSW and -1 run value. His change up and curveball are no slouches either and this could be a matter of altering his pitch usage.
Conclusion: Regardless of how you look at it, there is clay to mold here and the projection and age is more so what is carrying his value. Lopez would be expected to be somewhere in the 6th-8th reliever range so there really is no going wrong here. You can have 2023 Lopez who was really productive on the White Sox or have the option of multiple adjustments with the hopes of taking him to the next level. Seems like pretty much a win win here. If the performance does not end up where the Mets would like it to be, Lopez has the stuff and is young enough to garner trade interest from a team that sees something to fix.
Bench Players:
The Mets team I have constructed has one remaining open spot. The only thing this team is lacking is a base runner to put pressure on opposing teams later in games.
Michael A. Taylor OF: 2 Years - $18 million ($9 million AAV)
Introduction (Written 12/1/23): I am putting Taylor above Jankowski because he provides a better fit for the structure of this Mets team, but he would be far more expensive than Jankowski. He fills all three needs for the bench in speed, right handed hitter and great outfielder.
Performance: His offensive production has not been up to league average. However, he has been so valuable in the field and on the bases that even with a combined 92 wRC+ over the last two years, he has posted a 3.2 WAR. His profile goes way beyond that though. He had some poor luck on batted balls in 2023 with a .279 BABIP compared to a .324 career average entering this year. This is supplemented by his .432 xWOBACON in 2023. His barrel% was in the 88th percentile at 13.5% and his max EV was in the top 8% of the league at 114.3 mph. There is a lot of potential with Taylor and is definitely a starting caliber outfielder in the event of an injury.
Conclusion: Based on multiple sources, this offer would be above his market value. Taylor was a great defensive center fielder for the Twins this year and showed the ability to impact the ball offensively. He should absolutely be a starting outfielder in the MLB. Therefore, in order for him to sign a deal to be a bench player for a playoff contender, he will need to be paid more. At least that is what I would think would be the case. However, if the Mets go right after Taylor early, before he has teams lining up for him, they could avoid paying the bench premium on him. I like everything about Taylor honestly for this team and he provides great flexibility for the Mets to potentially make some crazy moves this offseason or next offseason which I may hint about throughout the offseason on X. I will not be altering the Estimated Luxury Tax based on this new contract because I do deem this signing quite unlikely especially after signing Joey Wendle.
Travis Jankowski OF: 1 Year - $1.75 million + 2nd Year Club Option $1.5 million ($250K Buyout) ($2 million towards Luxury Tax)
Introduction: There is one real bench spot to be filled and it is for a pinch runner. The clubhouse was a better place with Jankowski in it and the team seemed to rally with him. Eduardo Escobar, while he is not with the team anymore, had shirts made for the team replicating Jankowski’s jersey. This is after Travis made a statement postgame saying “no one’s going to be buying my jersey”. The core players like him and a reunion would work well for both parties.
Performance: The Mets saw firsthand how Jankowski’s plus baserunning had an impact on the 2022 team. This year the plus plus baserunning of the Diamondbacks was on display as they made their way to the World Series. The Mets currently lack a speed threat on the bench and the rule changes made this year proved that having a pinch runner or speed threat on your bench is essential.
Conclusion: Overall, this is pretty cut and dry. The Mets need a speed threat on their bench and I am interested in constructing a roster that transforms the clubhouse culture. They are familiar with Jankowski and he was a positive figure in the clubhouse. This is a great fit in my opinion, the only hiccup is that the Mets could ideally use a right handed speed option the way the bench is constructed but it does not matter.
Kevin Kiermaier OF: 2 Years - $19 million ($9.5 million AAV)
Introduction: Kiermaier is very similar to Taylor. He has been far more consistent over his career and will be a coveted center field option this offseason. I think there will be more suitors for him. His offensive production was just over league average which was a great en route to a 2.2 WAR season. There appears to be a bigger market for Kiermaier which is the only reason I put Taylor ahead of him. Contractually, they are very similar with a likely premium to pull him away from a starting role on a team.
Performance: Kiermaier does not impact the ball as much as Taylor does, but he can easily be considered a lot safer at the plate, especially as a nine hitter. Kiermaier’s K rate was over 12% lower than Taylor’s and his chase and whiff rates were lower as well. Kiermaier provides a phenomenal outfield contingency plan if an injury occurs or as a defensive replacement which is more likely to be needed in the outfield than infield. He is a hitter that you know has the skills to get the bat on the ball even if he does not hit it hard. As a guy that may only get one or two plate appearances per game played, he is a reliable option to put the ball in play.
Conclusion: Like with Taylor, this deal is above projected market rate for the same reasons. Kiermaier is a seasoned vet with a track record of platinum defense. He is only a year older than Taylor but after his resurgent year, I think teams will be lining up and raising his value. He gets one million more based on the track record, the defense is a little better and the competitive market. Kiermaier is far more expensive than Jankowski and my current roster already has two LHH on the bench with one switch hitter/RHH platoon. Taylor balances the bench out which is why I lean towards him. The second year is important for Taylor and Kiermaier because they are more than a speed threat off the bench, but they provide the Mets with some options for any crazy future plans a certain writer may have in store. Again, I will not be including Kiermaier in the Estimated Luxury Tax because I also do not think signing him is likely.
Backup Relief Pitchers/Minor League Contracts:
The contracts I write out below are what I would sign these relievers for in the event that the Mets need to pivot to them, not in addition to the relievers I already want to sign above. I will not be writing about any of the backup starting pitchers but they are listed below as options I would like to pursue in the event the Mets are still lacking an SP3. The relief market can dry up quickly and teams can swiftly be out of options. Having backup options is more important here in my opinion since the Mets do have an influx of starting pitchers that could compete for those roles (Quintana, Lucchesi, Butto, Megill, Vasil, etc.). The listing will reset here with number 1) since these are not players I prefer to sign, but are backups. I will say I would like to sign Rosenthal regardless but to a guaranteed minor league deal.
The Mets have a lot of young arms that can come up in the next year or two and impact the bullpen. That group consists of Bryce Montes de Oca, Eric Orze, Grant Hartwig, Nate Lavender and Paul Gervase among others. There are some guys that might be a little further away like Eli Ankeney, Dylan Tebrake, etc. Nevertheless, I do not want to be forcing these guys into the MLB bullpen before they are ready because of how inconsistently they will get into games. They still need to develop and will not be allowed to make mistakes and develop/learn from them playing for a World Series contender.
Trevor Rosenthal RHP: 1 Year - $1 million guaranteed Minor League Contract + 2nd Year Club Option - $2 million
Introduction: Rosenthal underwent Tommy John Surgery in July leading to his release by the Tigers. He looked very good in workouts this year after not pitching in the MLB since 2020. He will be unable to pitch until at least the second half of the season but the Mets will be able to monitor him as well as work with him throughout his rehab and build up once he is back.
Performance: He will be 34 next year and provides the chance to have a guy that knows how to pitch in the MLB and postseason as depth for a playoff run is alluring. This is a great option for a team that has lacked relief pitching depth for a while. I will not speak to his peripherals and stats since the most recent are from 2020.
Conclusion: For $1 million, this will not affect the luxury tax really at all. It is solely a valuable depth move with no implications. The price of the contract is to eliminate any other team from signing him once he returns. He is definitely worth taking a shot on and worst case scenario, he is bad and the Mets release him.
David Robertson RHP: 1 Year - $10 million + 2nd Year Mutual Option - $8 million ($750K Buyout)
Introduction: Robertson was great for the Mets last year and everyone knew if he had been the setup man to Diaz, the team would have been in a much better spot. 2024 is the chance for that to happen now. Things did not go well in Miami and recency bias combined with age could lead to Robertson lasting on the market and/or cost less.
Performance: The Mets know him, what worked, what did not and had a plan for him. Bringing him back would be rather seamless and he would not be relied on as the only good reliever like he was this year. He does not need to perform to the same level either. It is rather unrealistic to expect the level of production he had with the Mets considering a .250 BABIP indicated some batted ball luck going his way. In short, this is a familiar face for the Mets and they know what they can get out of him.
Conclusion: Summed up quickly, this is a familiar face for the Mets and they know what they can get out of him. If they want to build up the bullpen, he should definitely be in the mix. It would be a little more expensive than many of the other options which is a small factor into making him a backup. For the most part, I see Robertson as the ninth reliever and if one of the righties above comes off the board, Robertson is the first person I want to take that spot.
Matt Moore LHP: 1 Year - $7 million + 2nd Year Player Option $5.5 million ($6.25 million AAV)
Introduction: The main separator between Suter and Moore for the third lefty became the ground ball percentage. Suter has been very consistent for years while Moore had an ERA and FIP north of 5.75 just two years ago. Raley nor Chafin induce a lot of ground balls while Suter is in the 72nd percentile. Moore ranks in the 13th percentile and opting for Moore would mean the Mets do not have a lefty they can rely on to go get a ground ball in a necessary situation. This is my rationale as to why I chose Suter over Moore but it is ultimately that close.
Performance: Matt Moore had a productive 2023, but he naturally regressed from a great 2022. His K rate was maintained and he greatly improved his BB rate, however, his HR/9 regressed from elite, to a bit below average. It was a big part of his FIP raising to a still respectable 3.73. If a team’s third best lefty is putting up 10 K/9, sub 3 BB/9, hovering around a 1.0 HR/9 with a sub 3.25 ERA and sub 4.00 FIP, they would be ecstatic. That is the potential for Moore.
Moore differs from the other lefties though. He throws from a more upright point, meaning his release height is fairly similar to the others, but he is more in the middle of the mound. Moore predominately throws his FF where all three of the lefties throw sinkers as well. He is a slightly different look with a different profile which is a big part of why he is appealing for this team.
Conclusion: Similarly to Robertson, if one of those lefties are off the board, Moore quickly becomes the third targeted lefty for this bullpen. He should not be as expensive as he was last offseason and is an insurance option to make sure our left handed group is still strong.
Alex Reyes RHP: 1 Year - $900K million guaranteed Minor League Contract + 2nd Year Mutual Option $2 million (Incentives: $500K each for 20 Appearances, 30 Appearances, 40 Appearances, 50 Appearances, 60 Appearances) (Total Potential Money - $900k through Year 1 - $5.4 million through 2 Years)
Introduction: Reyes has had quite an unfortunate start to his career. The last season he pitched (2021) resulted in an All-Star Game appearance. The talent has always been there, but a multitude of injuries and other bumps in the road got in the way. He is slated to return sometime in 2024 and just like Rosenthal, this is a pure upside signing.
Performance: Reyes’ biggest issue is the walk rate. It has consistently been near the bottom of the league. Outside of a low ground ball rate, Reyes did everything else at an above average level in 2021 once it all clicked. The shoulder injuries are a valid reason to be concerned that he will not see the same success he once did. Even so, what is the risk? $900K isn’t a bad price to pay in order to find out.
Conclusion: Reyes is the type of signing that can be the cherry on top for a championship bullpen. He’ll be cheap for the first year while he returns from injury. Like Rosenthal, this will give the Mets time to work with him instead of having to scout him at a tryout if he is still a free agent once he returns. The incentivized mutual option fits both teams. If the Mets are pleased with what they see next year, they can keep him on for as little as $2 million. If Reyes progresses well, he has a chance to be an impact reliever not even a full year removed from injury with a chance to make up to $4.5 million in year two. There is no reason to not invest in the upside of this kind of player. He provides depth to the organization without taking up a roster spot to start the year.
Current Mets:
There are a few current Mets that are in a tough spot. I have my ideas for them which will be shared below. There are four players I will talk about but there is not too much flexibility for three of them. None have any minor league options so if they will not be carried on the 26 man roster, they have to be non-tendered this offseason or DFA’d in season. I believe all three of these players can be traded since they have enough value. Unfortunately, with the way I want to construct this team, they do not fit in those plans.
Pete Alonso 1B: 7 Years - $154 million ($22 million AAV)
Introduction: Pete Alonso has been a staple to Queens since he joined the league in 2019. He is Mr. Met, he is the personification of the New York Mets organization. There are no two ways around it. He is the lifeblood of the team and community. Regardless of the fact that he is an important leader in the clubhouse and the community, right handed power like his does not grow on trees. Getting a suitable replacement for Pete will not be easy at all.
Performance: Since he entered the league, Pete has hit more home runs than anyone else in the league at 192 and played in the third most games at 684. Since 2019, Pete leads all first baseman in at bats per home run (AB/HR) and is fourth in the MLB in AB/HR. His 13.18 AB/HR only trails Aaron Judge (11.30 AB/HR), Mike Trout (11.97 AB/HR) and Kyle Schwarber (13.11 AB/HR). He also sports average or better K rates and above average BB rates. Pete is one of the most prolific home run hitters of this generation and he deserves to be compensated properly.
The Athletic released an article about Pete’s future contract quoting multiple industry sources about what a contract and what the athleticism will look like long term. Pete is aware of his weaknesses and has taken big strides towards minimizing them. His OAA has been a little streaky to say the least but the rest of his numbers, especially in 2023 look pretty good. He ranked 4th among qualified first basemen in defensive runs saved (6 DRS) and Scoops (18 Scp). His zero OAA also ranked 7th while his -1.5 UZR was 15th among qualifiers. Pete was no slouch at first base this year especially considering the glove hand wrist injury he started dealing with in June. These results are indicative of a player that can continue to play first base and is not required to be a permanent DH. He has proven to be durable. Pete has only missed 24 games in his five year career. The best ability is availability and the Mets know they can rely on him.
Contact: Now let's be completely honest, the concerns around Alonso’s long term prospects are surrounded by his physicality and how he might break down or regress throughout its duration. An extension starting in 2024 would conclude after Alonso’s age 35 season. Ideally, I would structure this extension to start in 2024 and override his final year of arbitration. On the other hand, if Alonso wanted to exercise his final year of arbitration, the deal can start in 2025 taking Pete through his age 36 season. Another option would be to make the extension start in 2024 for 8 years taking him through his age 36 season if getting that extra year was important to his camp. Opt-outs and incentives can be included and are unimportant towards getting a deal done and I would not let them hold up a deal. This contract also exceeds Matt Olson’s $21 million AAV in Atlanta.
Questions about a long term deal are likely based on the way the second half of the Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera contracts played out. This deal starts during Pete’s age 29 season while Pujols’ and Cabrera’s contracts started during their age 32 and age 33 seasons. By the time their contracts were starting, Alonso’s will be halfway over. These comparisons are not valid, especially considering that Pujols last season with at least a wRC+ of 110 was his age 36 season and Cabrera’s was his age 35 season.
The industry has been hesitant to hand out long term, high AAV contracts to first baseman because of the previous deals mentioned. Freddie Freeman’s 6 yr/$162 million deal is the longest outside of Matt Olson’s 8 yr/$168 million. Freeman was a free agent and Olson signed an extension. Freeman, 32 years old has less breakdown risk due to his hit over power profile and better athleticism than Pujols and Cabrera yet still only got six years while signing at the same age. Olson signed an extension after his age 27 season and still only got eight years, concluding after his age 35 season. A seven or eight year guarantee with options lengthening it is fine, but this deal falls right in line with the market. Alonso will be playing through his prime for half of the extension making this deal a no-brainer for the Mets.
Conclusion: There are a lot of concerns about the future physical regression throughout the duration of the contract. I believe they are overreactions regarding the recency bias of long term contracts that did not work out for older sluggers. Alonso is not an older slugger when he will be signing this deal and it will end in line with when others have historically started regressing. Pete is an extremely hard worker and competitor, he is aware of all the concerns and negative aspects and he is looking to attack them. I have no doubt that he will overcome these weaknesses and continue to perform at a high level for the duration of this extension.
Drew Smith RHP: Trade
Introduction: Smith has shown flashes but has not put it together for a full season to be reliable. He has great stuff and will be a valuable trade option for other teams. Despite the overall depth of the market, the relievers under 31 market is not very deep and Smith would be the cheapest of them all. He has one year of arbitration left and is projected to make $3.2 million.
Performance: Smith is very similar but opposite in a way to Stephenson. He got a little unlucky in 2023 with the expected stats on all of his pitches being better than the actual stats. Smith’s FF plays really well, but his slider and change-up do not. Similarly to Stephenson, the separation in the movement profiles of Smith’s FF and slider is slightly too much. Smith could look to incorporate a cutter to balance the movement like Stephenson did, but that does not guarantee added success. Another option would be to tweak or add a different slider to his arsenal. Smith does not currently throw a sweeper but he could throw a backspin slider with more vertical movement to combat the separation in movement profiles.
Conclusion: It is unknown how he will perform which is why I prefer to trade him. A team that has the foresight to adjust his movement profiles or add a cutter would see Smith as a valuable trade piece. I think Smith could make a reunion with the team that traded him to the Mets in the Rays. It feels like a good fit, the Rays, Reds or others should see a similar project to Stephenson and Smith will be very cheap for one year of potential dominance.
Trevor Gott RHP: Trade/Non-Tender
Introduction: Gott (like Smith) has one thing that none of the free agent relievers have, a really cheap contract. He is projected to make $1.8 million in 2024 through arbitration. Many Mets fans may not like Gott because he did not come through in a lot of big moments.
Performance: He has only been with the team since July 3rd and many of his per nine stats are within 0.5 of what they were in Seattle. While his barrel% increased with the Mets, his average EV and hard hit% decreased with the Mets. The notable changes to his batted ball data is an increased launch angle from 11.8 degrees to 14.9 degrees and an LD% that increased by 8.0% from 18.4% to 26.4%. This led to both his ground ball and fly ball percentages to decrease.
His BABIP also decreased from .365 with the Mariners to .322 with the Mets. Despite this, his BABIP is still a little above the league average but way higher than his .269 career BABIP leading into 2023. Gott definitely experienced some poor batted ball luck and likely some unfortunate batted ball sequences (i.e. walk, single, double with 2 runs scored as opposed to double, single, walk with no runs scored). Gott struggled with RISP surrendering a .448 BABIP allowing 32 hits, with six doubles and two home runs. That is a 25% XBH%, not to mention he has seven unearned runs as well.
Gott still maintained a K/9 over 9 and a BB/9 under 3.5 with the Mets and an identical 0.62 HR/9 with both teams. His other peripherals look good and one team will see clay they can mold. A slider add is possible to his arsenal to induce more chases and whiffs, but a currently average K rate and good BB rate are enticing as is for a reliever that induces weak contact.
Conclusion: Any team believing in the Mariners version of Gott knowing the Mets version is a lower percentile outcome will love an opportunity to jump at him considering the contract. He could be a good trade candidate later in the offseason as the reliever market starts to dry up. Gott is a good reliever to have and he is valuable and cheap enough to warrant a trade. I would certainly prefer to trade him because I know the value is there rather than non-tendering him since the money is minimal.
Daniel Vogelbach DH: Trade/Non-Tender
Introduction: To be completely honest, Vogelbach has been treated very unfairly in New York. He has never actually been a big home run hitter outside of 30 home runs in 2019. He hits the
ball hard, but has not always gotten it in the air. All of that is without mentioning that he was only paid $1.5 million last year. If you ask anyone if they would pay someone $1.5 million as a left-handed hitting DH to have a 119 wRC+ against right handed pitchers, they would all say yes. That is the production the Mets got from Vogelbach last year. He was good and I was surprised they could not find a trade partner for him at the deadline.
Performance: I already mentioned some of the broad stats above, but it gets a lot deeper than that. For starters, Vogey does not strike out an outrageous amount and his walk rate is exceptional, especially for the type of hitter he is. Vogey hit the ball hard all year with a 91.7 average EV and a 50.0% hard hit%. Both those numbers improved a lot from 2022. Unfortunately, his launch angle went down slightly and he had the lowest LD% of his career. A high walk rate and lack of elevating contributed to the perception that he was not doing damage.
Some might say that he does not come through in the clutch, well that is not true. In 85 plate appearances with RISP, Vogey had a 17.6% BB rate, 158 wRC+ and hit 43.5% fly balls which is only second to his 2019 fly ball percentage with RISP. All year he handed the baton to the next man up and that is what you want from your players. He is not meant to be a heart of the order player, he is a 6th or 7th man in the lineup, and that is great production against righties.
Conclusion: While I am a fan of Vogelbach, the Mets signed DJ Stewart last year to a minor league contract and had a vision with him. It is safe to say that just about everything went right there and he outperformed Vogelbach straight up. We do not have room for two bats like that and Stewart’s development is undeniable at least for 2024. Not to mention Stewart is projected to make half of what Vogelbach should and has the versatility to at least play the outfield.
Final Thoughts:
In all the deals I made in this outline, I spent $108,625,000 on free agents for 2024. I purposefully did not make any trades for players like Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease or Tyler Glasnow in this report. The Mets have the pieces to make trades for frontline starters but I left them out. I will be posting on X many additional thoughts and ideas for the Mets as the offseason moves on, especially trades. I believe Glasnow is the best fit for the Mets in terms of trade value.
Since the Mets are going to be way over the luxury tax anyway, I frontloaded most of the contracts to save a little money for the 2025 payroll (not luxury tax) and to make relievers a little more valuable by having less money attached to them. Just under 90% of the spending was on the pitching staff. The Mets’ 2024 luxury tax payroll is going to be higher than 2023 if my plan comes to fruition, so why not keep spending to set your team in the right direction for the future. I mentioned I prefer to be under the luxury tax and that was true. Although, there was no real chance the Mets could make improvements through free agency and not go over the luxury tax with all the dead money they owe to players not currently with the team. The Mets are paying just over $65 million in 2024 to players they have traded away and released.
Getting contracts off the books in 2025 will be important for the amount of tax the Mets will be paying. I was adamant that signing relief pitchers was important to overhaul a poor bullpen as well as developing trade pieces for prospects. All the primary relief pitcher contracts were multi-year deals and as more Mets pitching prospects become ready for the bigs, they can trade off relievers for prospects in the offseason. Additionally, Starling Marte has two years left making $19.5 million each year per the luxury tax. A good 2024 and plus development of Ronny Mauricio to become an everyday outfielder could make Marte a viable trade piece to offload the contract. Point is, all the payroll numbers provided below are given that this plan comes to fruition. If it does, there would be a lot more than $50 million coming off the books in 2025; trades containing Marte and multiple relief pitchers would remove more like $90-$100 million off the books.
The Mets want to build long term, sustainable success. In order to do that, their young players need to play and develop. Brett Baty has had his struggles, every time he goes back to AAA he plays really well. He needs to have more time in the MLB to start getting the ball off the ground. Even if Baty struggles, Vientos struggles, or Mauricio too, the Mets can still win tons of games with one or two young guys having trouble in the lineup at the same time. The development of the young guys to freely play will reward this organization in the long term. With that said, heavily exploring a Francisco Alvarez extension following 2024 should be a priority. Lastly, a revamped pitching staff with a plethora of prospects that develop throughout the year provides this team with a lot of depth to reach the postseason. A front loaded roster with five $18+ million contracts, currently lacking good depth and multiple young prospects still finding their footing means the Mets really cannot compete now and stay under the luxury tax in 2024. In my opinion, being middle of the pack is the worst position. Since the Mets are over the luxury tax for 2024 anyway, they might as well go for it.
The 2023 postseason proved that being a wild card team is all you need to make it to the World Series. For now, the Mets have the necessary pieces to make a deep run. The bridge spending on relief pitching gives the Mets time to develop many of their arms while not committing long term to a significant amount of contracts as well as acquiring valuable trade pieces. This structure gives the Mets room to operate in the following free agencies in addition to ensuring development time for the young core to become everyday players, and concurrently making an immediate postseason run.
Preferred Roster:
Lineup:
Nimmo CF LHH
Lindor SS SH
Alonso 1B RHH
Pham LF RHH
Alvarez C RHH
McNeil 2B LHH
Baty/Vientos 3B/DH Platoon LHH/RHH
Baty/Vientos 3B/DH Platoon LHH/RHH
Marte/Mauricio RF Platoon RHH/SH
Bench:
Mauricio SH
Stewart LHH
Narvaez LHH
Jankowski LHH/Pinch Runner RHH
Rotation:
Yamamoto RHP
Senga RHP
Bauer RHP
Quintana LHP
Peterson LHP (Injured)/Lucchesi LHP/Butto RHP/Megill RHP/etc.
Bullpen:
Diaz CL RHP
Raley SU LHP
Joe Kelly SU RHP
Andrew Chafin LHP
Robert Stephenson RHP
Phil Maton RHP
Brent Suter LHP
Reynaldo Lopez RHP
Backup/Minor League Bullpen Signings:
Trevor Rosenthal RHP
David Robertson RHP
Matt Moore LHP
Alex Reyes RHP
Backup Rotation Signings:
Lance Lynn RHP
Kenta Maeda RHP
Jack Flaherty RHP
Rich Hill LHP
Mike Clevinger RHP
Estimated Luxury Tax:
Guaranteed Salaries (AAV) Pre Free Agency: $146,130,000
Guaranteed Salaries (AAV) Post Free Agency: $146,130,000 +$130,625,000 = $276,755,000 (Includes Alonso Extension starting 2024 season & DJ 1 Year contract)
Salaries for Players Eligible for Arbitration Pre Free Agency: $30,580,000
Salaries for Players Eligible for Arbitration Post Free Agency: $30,580,000 -$25,680,000 = $4,900,000 (Players Removed: Pete Alonso (Extension), Drew Smith (Trade), DJ Stewart (Signed Guaranteed Contract)) (Included an estimated $900,000 for Phil Bickford)
Sum of Other Payments (Does Not Include Potential Buyouts): $65,083,333
Estimated salaries for players not yet eligible for arbitration and other players with non-guaranteed contracts: $13,320,000
Estimated salaries for 40-man roster players in minor leagues: $2,500,000
Estimated player benefits to be paid: $17,000,000
Payment into $50M pre-arbitration bonus pool: $1,666,667
Estimated Luxury Tax Payroll Post Free Agency: $381,225,000
Estimated Luxury Tax Overage: $381,225,000 - $237,000,000 = $144,225,000
Luxury Tax Tier 4 Overage: $381,225,000 - $297,000,000 = $84,225,000
Estimated Total Tax: (Tier 1 - $10,000,000)+(Tier 2 - $12,500,000)+(Tier 3 - $19,000,000)+(Tier 4 - $92,647,500) = $134,147,500
Total Estimated Luxury Tax Payroll: $381,225,000 + $134,147,500 = $515,372,500
Blooper Reel:
I got a little caught up in the market frenzy and bidding war that will inevitably ensue on the two best stateside players in free agency this year outside of Shohei Ohtani. Pursuing multiple long term contracts this offseason is a bad idea and the luxury tax situation is already in trouble. There are better future free agent classes the Mets could look to make a splash on. These contracts are based on what I thought would have to be made to sign the player, not the contracts I wanted to give them.
Cody Bellinger OF/1B: 6 Years - $150 million ($25 million AAV) + 4th Year Player Option - $23 million ($2.5 million Buyout) + 7th year Mutual Option - $28 million (Contract Breakdown (million) - $25, $25, $25, $25, $23, $27, $28)
Introduction: As great of a player he is, looking down the line at this team’s future, an overwhelming part of me wanted the Mets to heavily pursue Bellinger last offseason instead of signing Brandon Nimmo to a long term contract. As exciting as it was to see him rebound back to prominence as a piece you can build around, His performance gives me some concerns. I have no concerns about the player himself, I have concerns about paying for the performance that came this year. I am worried that a weak market, his agent, and incredible success this year might lead to teams being forced to pay more than they would like to land Cody Bellinger. He has some serious prospects to his game that make it worth contemplating paying the extra price tag regardless of my concerns.
Performance: Bellinger got off to a little bit of a slow start barely above average with a .330 wOBA and 107 wRC+ through June (49 GP 207 PA). Bellinger turned up the heat in the second half in just about every way. He posted a .394 wOBA and 150 wRC+. He dropped his K rate by 6.6% in that time, hit the ball to the opposite field more, hit more line drives, less fly balls, and dropped his Soft% by 13.7% (81 GP 349 PA).
With runners in scoring position he went from well below average (76 wRC+) to one of the more clutch players in the MLB with a 161 wRC+ with RISP striking out in just 9.5% of those plate appearances and walking in 8.6%. Both of those numbers are better than his season long numbers. These stats tell me that Bellinger prepares much better, has developed a routine and stable approach to deal with more important moments of the game. Not only is this important as a part of being a successful player, but Bellinger has often looked lost, or without direction like he had no approach the last couple of years. He was extremely productive in the second half of 2022 as well with a 149 wRC+ but he still struck out in 25% of his 72 plate appearances. Players will often sacrifice power to build a more refined approach and I would bet that is likely what happened as Bellinger emphasized cutting his strikeouts, hitting the ball the other way more and lifting it a bit less. The Mets had the 4th fewest plate appearances with RISP which is a big part of why they had the 5th fewest runs scored with RISP. However, they had the 6th worst batting average with risp, and 5th worst BABIP. A bright spot is that they were 4th in BB rate and 12th in K rate. Much of this points to a portion of poor batted ball luck which is likely the case. 12th in Soft%, 7th in Med% and 24th in Hard% supports that notion for the most part.
I wanted to determine how often teams score runs with RISP on a rate basis, so to do this I divided RBI by plate appearances. This definitely isn’t a sound determination for how good a team is at bringing in runners in scoring position but this is what I’m working with since I can’t filter any further on Fangraphs. I chose RBI over runs because of instances like wild pitches in which you can’t quantify if the team directly caused that result (If a pitcher is rattled, uncomfortable, falling apart, etc. in a big moment that is caused by the offensive team but those moments are not quantifiable into a stat so I stuck to RBI over runs). The Mets ranked 19th in this statistic where 31.34% of their plate appearances ended with an RBI. The Orioles led the category with 38.44% and the Athletics were the caboose with 26.22%. The fact of the matter is if the Mets want to win a championship, they will have to produce at a much higher rate with RISP than they did in 2023. Bellinger showed an affinity to do that this year, even last year in the second half and could be a clutch piece in moments where the Mets struggled.
Elite fielding is the backbone of Bellinger’s skillset. It is a big part of what makes him so valuable and why I still want to sign him after the signing of Brandon Nimmo. Not only does Bellinger bring gold glove caliber defense, he brings important versatility as well. Bellinger provides the Mets with a backup plan that would leave the team without a void with the possibility of Pete Alonso departing New York in free agency next year. The Mets will have options like Mark Vientos, Brett Baty, or other free agent options in addition to Bellinger. If the young Mets have not made the jump the team expects by then, Bellinger can seamlessly slot in as an elite defensive first baseman and elevate the whole infield’s defense. Even though he played center field exclusively in 2023, Bellinger would likely slot over to right field since he displays a much stronger arm than Brandon Nimmo. Bellinger has performed just as well in right field in the past and there is no worry that he wouldn’t continue his stellar defense over there as well. The foundation of Bellinger’s performance comes in his consistency as a defender. Since he continuously and reliably performs at the top of the scale defensively, you can bank on that year after year. This provides him with an inherently high floor.
Bellinger lucked out with a 4.1 WAR season in a contract year, so teams are going to probably be paying for a 4 win player for the duration of his contract which is how it usually works. Unfortunately, the likelihood of a 4 win season repeatedly for the majority of the contract is not incredibly high. The defense and high floor becomes all the more important because even if he has a down year defensively, he is still looking like a 2 win player. That is if he puts up around an 85-90 wRC+ too. Even a 100 wRC+ season could yield a very good season. I believe the mental and off the field adjustments Bellinger made are a good reason to believe he should be above this floor.
There were a few things that I did not like to see when looking at Bellinger’s peripherals. He did not hit the ball very hard and rarely had hard hit balls. Obviously if his hard hit rate is low his barrel rate is probably going to be lower as well. The barrel rate is still subject to the launch angle so that isn’t as much of an issue because his sweet spot % was in the 86th percentile. The combination of the avg EV, barrel % and hard hit % being in 22nd, 27th and 10th percentiles was quite concerning to me. With these results, it is no surprise he outperformed his expected stats. I mentioned earlier that players sacrifice power to limit strikeouts and hit the ball the other way, among other reasons. That could still be the case with Bellinger from an approach and set up standpoint, but he still only had a Soft% of 10.7% to the opposite field in the second half of this year. The average exit velocity has been significantly higher in the past and I think the team that signs Bellinger is going to emphasize trying to build on his success from this year and bridge towards a point where he elevates the exit velocities to create more stable production. These peripherals combined with a 33rd percentile chase rate are the only reasons I think Bellinger would not be a perennial 4+ win player and is my worry about committing a lot of money to him. Overall, the potential and history is there to make the organization believe they will bring him back to MVP form.
Conclusion: Giving Bellinger $20 or so million AAV would have been no issue to me even if he performed a bit worse than he did this year. Considering he will be 28 for barely more than half the year, the option after the fourth year, allows him to reenter the market ahead of his age 32 season in 2028. If he maintains the elite production, he can look to elevate his AAV or look for more stability and more guaranteed money for the rest of his career. The point of the option year salary being lower provides the Mets with a potential out. It works both ways though. If the Mets are not satisfied with his production, the $23 million and buyout could entice Bellinger to reenter the market. The $27 million and $28 million mutual option are reasons for Bellinger to stay if he is unsure about his prospects of making more in the market. The mutual option provides Bellinger with a potential added year of stability if he does not think he will make $28 million in free agency as a 34 year old. If he bets on himself again like he did this year, he should not see this as too much of an issue especially if other teams are hesitant to go seven years. Bottom line is this is the highest I would go for Bellinger and it looks like the best course of action with this situation might just be to start with your best offer. If a bidding war ensues, the Mets should probably bow out of the contest. At the end of the day, Bellinger will only be 34 turning 35 in the seventh year of this contract and physical regression should not creep up the horizon with how athletic he is. He can be a five tool, dynamic piece of a championship winning roster or an important role player that provides elite defense which we saw make a difference in this year’s postseason.
Sonny Gray RHSP: 2 Years - $48 million ($24 million AAV) + 3rd Year Vesting Option ($20 million - 25 GS) (Incentives: $1 million - 200 IP, $1 million - 30 GS, $2 million - CY Young finalist, $5 million - CY Young winner)
Introduction (Started 9/6/23 Finished 11/6/23): Sonny Gray is in the midst of a great season with the Twins and outside of a couple seasons (far apart I may add), he has been a very good pitcher. He brings experience, stability as well as some versatility which I will get into later. He is also having the best season of his career despite being 33. Even though he is only getting older, he has shown the ability to toss 4.5+ WAR seasons twice since 2019.
Performance: Sonny Gray hasn’t had the most consistent overall stat line in the last five years, but the averages look quite nice. He struggled with the Yankees in 2018 and since being traded to the Reds in 2019, he’s been a solid pitcher to have on a team. He’s logged 649.1 innings in 120 starts (5.41 IP/G) and posted a 3.28 ERA, 3.37 FIP and 15.6 WAR (3.12 WAR/Y). Along with that, he’s put up /9 lines of 9.83 K/9, 3.23 BB/9, 0.80 HR/9 and .278 BABIP in that time. His numbers in that span are great but it is important to note what could be called inconsistent performances each year. Furthermore, one might say (myself included), that there are consistencies within the inconsistency. In a 2 year deal, Gray would likely post a 2.2 WAR and 4 WAR season give or take. He also had a K/9 over 10.30 with the Reds, but 8.80 & 8.83 with the Twins. Similarly, his BB/9 wasn’t lower than 3.33 with the Reds and improved to 2.71 & 2.93 with the Twins.
The team that signs Sonny Gray should look into getting him away from his FF. It is a high spin pitch and Gray has a release height lower than the MLB on all of his pitches, but he barely gets carry from it. Top that off with the fact that it averages 92.9 mph and the argument can be presented that the FF is not going to get much better. Like I said, Gray is a high spin pitcher, his sweeper was extremely effective this year and his cutter played very well also. The FF usage could almost be cut in half from its 27.2% usage this year. The cutter can be the primary pitch by a slight margin ahead of the sinker, followed by the sweeper, curveball, then FF. The cutter and sinker usages would be around 23% and 22% give or take, with the sweeper usage remaining where it is. The curveball usage would have to decrease by a couple percent to round it out. It would be interesting to see how much that would change his outlook by mixing much more than he did this year. A sinker tweak could be necessary for this transition as it grades with an 82 stuff+ as opposed to the 105 FF Stuff+. The sinker has shown to work the way it is, so its current shape might be the perfect compliment to the cutter while the FF continues to be used as a spot up pitch to keep hitters off balance. The outcomes were very positive but the peripherals would not indicate a pitcher deserving of $22+ million AAV. Even in 2021 when Gray posted a 2.5 win season, he was limiting hard contact and barrels where he was no worse than 88th percentile between average EV, hard hit% and barrel% that year. There was a lot of gray on his savant page this year, enticing one to think there was luck based results this year. That would not bode well for forecasting his success during this next contract. A usage adjustment could be all that he needs considering the last year he posted low EVs and limiting barrels was 2021 when his sinker was his primary pitch.
Contract: The two year deal likely won’t be as competitive as an offer so the AAV would have to increase, to pull Gray from a three year deal. A player option with enough money to pull him from a three year deal is pointless because then you might as well offer him a three year deal. Unless Gray really wants to contend and is not getting offers from playoff teams, the Mets would have to extend the third year to the 34 year old. Now something that could pull this off is the vesting option contingent on Gray staying healthy. The exact number of games started could be negotiated but I would prefer it to be above 20. In addition to a cheaper third year, a heavily incentivized deal could appeal to Gray’s recent history. Per the contract, Gray would have made an additional $2 million with this contract for being a CY Young finalist. Not everyone takes the highest offer for a number of reasons and the incentives easily put this contract within reach of the top offers he is likely to receive while still providing the Mets some cushion.
Conclusion: A phenomenal season ending with Gray receiving the qualifying offer and a strong 2025 starting pitching market makes me weary of going a third year because I admittedly have my eye on Corbin Burnes and Walker Buehler if they make it to free agency. However, what can be taken away from the last 5 years is that you can get one of two players with Sonny Gray. He’s shown that can be effective in either regard, having a 4.5 and 2.5 WAR season with both teams. There’s really a lot you can do with Sonny Gray considering the resources the Mets have in place. It’s all about what pitcher they want to see every fifth day. Personally, I’m not sure which version of Gray I would rather have, I usually lean towards the higher strikeout numbers but would like to avoid the increased walk rate as well. You really can’t go wrong with your #3 starter having a low 3 ERA and on average a 3.12 WAR season. However, Sonny will be 34-36 for the duration of his time in Queens, and my gut tells me that there is likely to be less risk of regression on a YTY basis if the Mets maintain Gray’s level with the Twins. Even though he can really spin the ball, I think I would settle for the suppressed volatility. Plus, have a #3 that is just shy of 9 K/9 and sub 3 BB/9 is definitely not bad whatsoever especially if you know they have 10.50 K/9 potential. Walks are killer and with the way the staff is being organized, I want someone I can rely on to not walk batters. Senga (expecting a better walk rate next year), Peterson and potentially Butto could be higher walk guys so a break in that trend is appealing. Ideally, you want to get Gray back to a point where he is getting a lot of ground balls and limiting hard contact.
Lance Lynn RHSP: 2 Years - $28 million +3rd Year Club Option ($12.5 million) (If Sonny Gray does not sign - Should not offer Lynn if Gray Signs)
Introduction (Written 9/4/23): There are a couple reasons for this signing despite Lynn’s down year. The main one is to have a fiery and competitive veteran in the clubhouse. Some people may disagree with this statement, likely due to the recency bias from all that went wrong with the 2023 Mets and their two hall of famers. Let’s be honest though, while the 39 and 40 year old weren’t pitching to the hall of fame level they once did, both held their own and had a respectable season with the Mets nonetheless. The White Sox had their issues this season but there is an article that speaks about the leadership of the White Sox in the wake of Jose Abreu’s departure this offseason. Lynn (who has only been in Chicago since the start of 2022) said that you cannot have just one leader, anyone can be a leader. The rest of that article is exclusive but combined with what I’ve seen on Lynn and his energy on the field, I am convinced he can fit in nicely as one of the leaders on the pitching staff to a hungry team in 2024. Just because that team failed, doesn’t necessarily mean that Lynn isn’t a good leader and I think it is important to keep that in mind. Despite the talent on the roster, I think many would agree that from top to bottom, the Chicago White Sox may be the worst overall organization in the MLB right now. The departure of Jose Abreu had its consequences and most people performed worse. I am by no means saying that is why Lynn was worse this year, but I am sure that being in a clubhouse as dysfunctional as that one probably didn’t do anything to help him get back on track. If Lance Lynn can improve his HR/9 with the Dodgers the rest of the season (9/4/23 to the end of the season), it will be all the more confidence instilled in me that he can turn around next year with some help from the Mets’ pitching resources.
Edit: Lynn did not end his season well and will not command this much money exactly. However, I still think there could be some considerable interest as a backend starter, veteran presence and some leadership role to a team that believes in a rebound.
Performance: Lynn’s performance hasn’t exactly been up to par of a #2 or maybe not even a good #3 starter, which means his value would be accordingly. Lynn was good in 2022 posting very similar to 2023 free agents Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon. All three have seen regression this year with Lynn’s being the worst. His regression can be largely attributed to his atrocious HR/9 which is a complete outlier to his career numbers. Given his sturdy frame, I do not see physical regression as too much of a risk. His strikeout numbers are still north of 9 K/9 and his BB/9 have plummeted with the Dodgers (so has his K rate but that is not as much of an issue to me) but the home runs continue to be an issue.
However, Lance Lynn’s worse FIP with the Dodgers likely doesn’t have as much to do with the slight HR/9 increase as it does with the decrease in K/9 (over 3 less K/9). In a mere 35.1 innings, Lance’s FIP is 5.81 compared to a 5.20 FIP with the Sox earlier in the year while having a very solid 3.57 ERA with the Dodgers. His HR/9 are almost identical to the first half of the year and his walk rate has been drastically cut. Now, if Lance’s K/9 was the same with the Dodgers as it was with the White Sox, his FIP with the Dodgers would be lowered to 4.96. With these numbers, Lynn is right back in the same ballpark as Walker and Taillon, and the argument could even be made that he is better than Taillon. Of course this is a fantasy land since I adjusted the numbers to make them different than they actually are; but this provides a glimpse of what Lynn could look like with the Mets next year. That is also assuming his HR/9 is maintained.
Let’s provide another scenario, say next year Lynn posts a line of 9.2 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and HR/9 of 1.4 which is about the same as his 2022 HR/9 (second worst of his career behind 2023) and since I can’t calculate an ERA we’ll go with a 3.90 ERA. Finally, estimate 28 starts and 160 innings which brings his cumulative stats out to be about 164 Ks (9.23/9), 50 BBs (2.81/9), and 25 HRs (14.1/9), using this years FIP constant, Lynn would post a 4.18 FIP without accounting for HBPs. Now, I don’t know about you, but if I can get that kind of production, or somewhere near that level of production for $14 million, I’ll take that any day. That all goes without mentioning that Mets starting pitchers in 2023 averaged 5.21 innings per start, Lance Lynn has averaged 5.70 innings per start since signing with the White Sox ahead of the 2021 season.
I will chalk this up to me having a gut feeling about Lance Lynn being able to bounce back and be a solid starting pitcher in 2024. He could serve as a reliable innings eating starting pitcher that can anchor the backend of the rotation and I think he provides a fiery and competitive veteran presence that will be desperately needed after the massive turnover the rotation has had the last two years.
Contract: Getting into the finances of this deal. A two year deal will likely be a must which is fine with me. I do not really see a reason why Lynn would willingly sign a 1 year deal for his age 36 season if there’s more stability on the table, except if he’s signing with a world series favorite. We are also going under the assumption that the Dodgers do not pick up Lynn’s $18 million club option. If the Dodgers won’t take him on for $18 million, I’m not sure who would. That certainly means that the contract he signs would be affordably cheap for the Mets specifically. What kind of comparisons are there?
Last year, we saw Taijuan Walker sign for $18 million per year to be a #4 in Philadelphia’s rotation as well as Jameson Taillon sign for $17 million per year to be a #4 with the Cubs. Both players signed 4 year contracts and are 30-31 years old. Walker and Taillon had performance and age on their side compared to Lynn. Besides these two, other pitchers from last year are Tyler Anderson, Ross Stripling and Jose Quintana who collectively signed for just under $13 million per year. However, those three show a similar profile that is different from Lynn. To sum it up, none of them had a K/9 over 7.5, a BB/9 over 2.6 and a HR/9 over 0.8. These numbers are significantly different from Lance Lynn’s but they are 33-34 years old. Lynn possesses the upside to give you 10 K/9 and as few as 1.4 BB/9 like he did last year. The likelihood of matching those numbers may not be a high probability, but it can raise his price considering at least one organization will believe they can elevate him to those thresholds.
There isn’t a perfect comparison of age and paralleled performance to Lynn so I will use the two sets of comparisons to gauge where Lynn should get signed for. I can’t really see Lynn getting north of $16 million per year this offseason, but with a relatively thin starting pitcher class in terms of depth, supply and demand could raise his price slightly. At the end of the day, It would be ideal to sign Lance Lynn for 2 years and $28 million ($14 million AAV). A competitive market could force the Mets to pay more than that for him, but considering Lynn’s potential upside and the confidence I have in the Mets’ pitching lab, I would still be comfortable going up to a $15.5 million AAV. A third year club option could be the separator in negotiations and it is possible that Lynn takes less money over the first two years with the addition of a club option. I wouldn’t be opposed to adding this and it could provide more value in possible trade negotiations in the future.
Conclusion: It should be clear that I am not interested in signing Lance Lynn for the purpose of being an ace or headlining the Mets’ rotation in 2024. Despite his age, I do think there is a lot of bounce back ability here and this is one of the signings that could end up being one of the steals of the offseason or could be a deal that people look back on and wish never happened. Lynn provides an intense presence on and off the field and could be a valuable leader for a staff in limbo. What he brings in the clubhouse and in the dugout is really why I want to go get him. Lance Lynn can be the guy to help get the Mets back on track to establish a winning mentality in the clubhouse and reliable, bulldog leadership on the mound.
Jimmy Cordero RHP: 1 Year - $2.5 million guaranteed Minor League Contract
Introduction: The Yankees waived Cordero at the start of the offseason. A move that confused me to say the least. Considering the state of their pitching staff, Cordero provided a lot to like. He excelled in barrel% and ground ball rate, gets elite extension and throws a 97 mph sinker. Velocity is not everything but it is not everywhere. Only Kelly and Lopez throw harder amongst the relievers in this report. Edit: I was unaware of the suspension he received at the time of writing this. Not sure how it didn’t come up when I was researching him. However, I moved it to the Blooper Reel
Performance: Cordero sports a good xERA, barrel% and ground ball percentage. The only peripherals that are actually below average are his chase and whiff rates. Cordero saw his success in 2023 as a two pitch reliever with his sinker and slider. His usage was lopsided, throwing the sinker 70.1% and the slider 27.9% of the time. I do not think a tweak or adjustment is absolutely necessary since he pitched very well, and I think this is a valuable budget option as is.
Conclusion: My concerns with Cordero reside in the fact that the Yankees let him go. I am not on the inside so I do not know what may be going on with him. Their relievers were not bad last year, but there are still relievers in that bullpen that are worse than Cordero. He is 32 years old with three years of service time logged. He would get paid minimally in arbitration and the fact that they released him with worse pitching available makes me wonder if there is an issue and if other teams are going to be hesitant to sign him. This contract is likely a lowball offer since Cordero will probably be signed to a major league contract to be part of a big league bullpen. We will see where he signs and for how much, that will determine if I am disappointed if the Mets are not involved. I have no issue offering a $2.5 million guarantee as a minor league contract for a reliever that could really contribute in the event we need him. That goes without saying that he is another option if the Mets do not sign all of the preferred relievers. Plus signing both Rosenthal and Cordero to these minor league contracts would account for a little over 1.5% of the payroll as “27th and 28th” men on the roster theoretically.