OCBaseball's Final Mock Draft
The MLB Draft is finally here, and we're all waiting for the clock to start ticking!
Final 2024 MLB Mock Draft
Here we are ladies and gentlemen, it is draft day! If you are anything like me, you are trembling with anticipation ahead of one of our favorite days of the year. This is my final mock draft. It will be a mixture of what I would do at each pick and what I’ve been reading. There is no exact science to this, but I will provide a very brief explanation to every pick. To hear in depth analysis about each of projected first round prospect, check out Part 1 and Part 2 the “too early” mock draft I filmed with
and . Without further adieu, it’s mock draft timeHere…we…go…
First Round:
1) Guardians: Travis Bazzana 2B Oregon State (under slot)
My gut tells me all the smoke of Wetherholt at 1.1 is designed to lower Bazzana’s floor, and by association, his slot value. He’s the best player in the draft in my opinion. Getting him while saving around $800k or more will be huge for the Guardians throughout the draft.
2) Reds: Charlie Condon OF/3B Georgia
Despite flurries about Condon’s camp expressing they want full slot value, I do not think that actually deters the Reds from going after a 40+ home run talent playing 81 games in Great American Ballpark. Talk still seems to be that he will be a Red if he is available and that also still seems to be the strongest connection inside the top 5.
3) Rockies: Jac Caglianone 1B Florida
My personal opinions for this pick are taking over. I explained it more in depth on our mock draft video, but in my opinion, taking a pitcher here would be negligent on the Rockies part. Note that I listed Cags as just a 1B, not a 2-way. A great point was made to me by @downonthefarm on X, some people might be lower on Cags based on the situation he’s drafted in and whether he is announced as a 2-way or only focusing on hitting. In this scenario, he will only be hitting and I think he’s a great brand to help revive the Rockies.
4) Athletics: Braden Montgomery OF Texas A&M (under slot)
Montgomery feels like he fits the Athletics mold to a “T”. A tooled up outfielder with POP. He falls in line with the likes of Colby Thomas and Henry Bolte. The arguments can be made that the A’s are loaded with infield and outfield prospects. Gelof, Muncy and Wilson are already envisioned as the future infield and all are at least at AAA presently. The aforementioned outfielders along with Denzel Clarke, who is having his own struggles this year repeating AA. What this comes down to, for me, is that the A’s are in a position to save more money with Montgomery. They spent $3 million on Steven Echavarria last year and have gone after preps early on day 2. Same logic applies here, and if they save $1.5 million they can get their prep guy down the board.
5) White Sox: Konnor Griffin OF Jackson Prep (MS)
While I’m not a fan of going with an arm early, and the pick here is pretty much down to Burns and Griffin. Honestly, I think this pick could come down to what kind of package they are leaning for Crochet and/or Robert. The Sox killed the draft last year, and have two rotations worth of solid minor league arms. They only have one frontline guy in Noah Schultz and Burns could be the second. However, the lack of bats on the way in this farm is concerning to me. They have been all over Griffin this spring and with Cags unavailable, they get their tooled up bat.
6) Royals: Bryce Rainer SS Harvard-Westlake (CA)
I love Rainer and think his fluid athleticism is not talked about enough. The tools are there and so is the projectability. He’ll stay on the dirt and if he has to move to 2B, he’ll be outstanding there with a plus arm. Honestly, I would think the Royals are hoping Griffin makes it to six. I haven’t heard anything myself, but I absolutely could see them thinking this is their Bobby Witt Jr. of the outfield. Instead, Rainer is the other top prep bat in this class and it seems to be a prep bat, or college arm with this pick. The way the board falls, they get Bryce Rainer, potentially under slot, and they are ecstatic about it.
7) Cardinals: Hagen Smith LHP Arkansas
This one is pretty simple, there does not appear to be a stronger top of the draft connection than the Cardinals wanting Hagen Smith, even over Chase Burns. If that’s just smoke, so be it, but I’m riding on that wave.
8) Angels: JJ Wetherholt SS/2B West Virginia
I cannot stand the assumptions that the Angels are taking the fastest player to the bigs here. They needed youth and talent to reach their competitive window as soon as possible in order to show Shohei they could win. The Shohei saga is over now, he’s gone. The team is having a tough year, they are already set to be sellers, so there is no reason to rush someone up for a playoff push to save Perry Minasian’s job. It’s time to bring in the best talent and start going BPA. Wetherholt is the guy that falls in this mock so he’s the pick here. Simple as that.
9) Pirates: Chase Burns RHP Tennessee
Let me start by saying, no, I did not do this on purpose so I could place Burns and Skenes together. To be completely honest with you, I originally decided to stick with my plan and mock a bat to the Pirates despite Burns being available (it’s listed below). I mulled on it and realized they would probably shift their focus away from saving money since the grace of God dropped Burns in their laps. Burns has a complete arsenal and allows the Pirates to progress him very quickly, next year. A full rotation headlined by Skenes, Jones, Keller and Burns + more.
“I’ve really put myself in a predicament here. Practically no mocks have Burns falling this far, so people are probably shouting at me already. But to pass up on the opportunity to have Skenes and Burns in the same rotation is really going to piss people off. It’s okay I can take it. I love James Tibbs III here for the Pirates and I think it’s a quick moving bat that is just going to hit. They can figure out the defense later, but they need hitters. They get their guy here and don’t look back.”
10) Nationals: Christian Moore 2B Tennessee
No one necessarily falls to this pick, besides Nick Kurtz. While I personally am a big fan of Kurtz, the buzz here is surrounding Moore, unless someone like Wetherholt or Montgomery falls. A potentially fast rising college bat, Moore scattered missiles all over the park this year at Tennessee, posting gaudy exit velocities. The Nats already have young players set up the middle, so Moore factors to fit their fast approaching competitive window as their future 2B.
11) Tigers: Cam Caminiti LHP Saguaro (AZ)
The Tigers are connected to Caminiti and the prep bats are both gone. There are not any super strong connections here but this is an org that has seen much success developing arms. It would be unsurprising to think the velocity gains Jackson Jobe has made this past year will probably aid their belief in tapping into more with Caminiti. He doesn’t spin it like Jobe does, but the feel, command for shapes, and great makeup is more than enough to bet on.
12) Red Sox: Trey Yesavage RHP East Carolina
The Red Sox have been connected heavily to Yesavage and Moore. Moore is off the board so this makes for a fairly easy selection. I’m not buying the potential Seaver King picks here.
13) Giants: Cam Smith 3B Florida State
The arms the Giants covet are off the board. Cam Smith really shored up the hit tool and the power is there. He’s an athletic mover and will stick at 3B where there should not be much defensive worry.
14) Cubs: James Tibbs III OF Florida State
Word is the Cubs love Tibbs. I am surprised he made it this far despite me officially not mocking him to the Pirates. He finally has a home and will hit anywhere he goes. I love the player and feel like I’ve done a bit of a disservice allowing him to drop, but this is how the chips fell.
15) Mariners: Nick Kurtz 1B Wake Forest
Some reports are saying the M’s want an arm here, but with Kurtz being the odd man out and the one that falls down the board, I think the Mariners are the ones that finally put a stop to it. Kurtz is going to hit for pop, and he is going to take his walks. A bit more aggression at the plate could do him well and make us all wonder why he started falling in the first place.
16) Marlins: William Schmidt RHP Catholic (LA)
College bat is a strong connection here, but similarly to the Rockies, I’m overruling that here. Peter Bendix is the new man in charge but the player development department has not been overhauled quite yet. They have struggled to develop bats and with the remaining options, I do not see one that will move quickly with certainty. I believe in playing to your strengths, so targeting the big pitcher with stuff and molding him into a frontline starter like they have been doing is the best course of action in my opinion. William Schmidt is a fluid mover with lots of upper body flexibility. He’s already on the brink of touching triple digits at just 6’4” 180 lbs., but his best pitch is a low 80s curveball that produces top of the line spin rates. There is more in the tank and a team known for getting the most out of arms looks like a great destination for him.
17) Brewers: Carson Benge OF Oklahoma State
I am sticking with a college bat here. The Brewers get the lanky outfielder with power projection for days at just 6’1” 184 lbs. He struck out just two times more than he walked this year with both his K and BB rates being above the 16% mark. Benge is one of my favorites in the class and I think if his new org adds 10-15 lbs on him, he’s got star potential at the plate along with a huge arm in the outfield.
18) Rays: Ryan Waldschmidt OF Kentucky
Deciding this pick was the hardest part of this mock draft. College bats, Waldschmidt or Honeycutt. Honeycutt was where I was leaning the entire time. The looming strikeout rate and the fact that only 13 four-year university hitters have been taken in the first round since 2012 according to Baseball America via this ESPN article written by Elizabeth Merrill. Of the teams that would let that fact slide, the unpredictable Rays would be near the top of the list. However, the more I looked into the Rays’ last two drafts, I noticed that while they may not care as much about strikeout totals (only 2 players with 20+ K% since 2022), what was very noticeable was the miniscule K-BB%. That ended up being the deciding factor and what trumped the striking similarities between Honeycutt’s and Siri’s profiles. Only 2 players that the Rays have drafted from four-year universities have a K-BB% worse than 7%. Brock Jones (24.29% K%, 6.94 K-BB%) in the 2nd round of 2022 and Jalen Battles (20.28% K%, 9.6 K-BB%) in the 5th round. Those two selections haven’t exactly been working out in the Rays’ favor. Honeycutt had a 27.48% K% and a 15.56 K-BB%. Waldschmidt’s K-BB% was less than 2% and he struck out only 4 more times than he walked (45Ks, 41 BBs). The Kentucky product is the long, drawn out pick here, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the top prep bat, Theo Gillen was the selection, given the options.
19) Mets: Vance Honeycutt OF North Carolina
The Rays may or may not be comfortable with Honeycutt’s strikeouts, but the Mets have the luxury to take him. Word is, they are looking for college bats. Seemingly, this comes down to whoever is left after the Rays pick. Waldschmidt and Honeycutt could go well before this pick, one is available in this scenario and they both lay above King in my book.
20) Blue Jays: Seaver King UTL Wake Forest
Again, it seems to be college bats. The Blue Jays are unfortunately picking in a spot where barring any drastic falls or risers, the top two tiers of college bats are off the board. Janek has a strong connection to the Jays. While I think he’s the best catcher, I do not think there is a catcher above Seaver King.
21) Twins: Tyson Lewis SS Millard West (NE) (under slot)
My “too early” mock featured PJ Morlando in this spot. It was a fun, crazy idea in an attempt to save money. I was strongly in favor of keeping the pick for some flare in this mock. Ultimately, Lewis caught my eye. He has helium and he is rising up boards. An up the middle talent, he should allow the Twins to save some money and enough to float their guy to pick 33.
22) Orioles: Jared Thomas OF Texas (under slot)
The Orioles have targeted talented athletes and it has been what’s worked. I think they continue to opt for a good athlete. Enter my plug for a player I would love for the Mets to get if he reaches their second round pick. On paper, Thomas appears to be filled out at 6’2” 190. Make no mistake, he is a wiry athlete with room to add more strength and power. He moves well and is a capable outfielder. This could be a sneaky pick by the Orioles to get a steal of the draft once they fill him out, while taking someone with positional value and saving a substantial amount of money.
23) Dodgers: Theo Gillen SS/OF Westlake (TX)
Talk for a while was pitchers here, then it shifted to prep bats. Not even a week ago, I would’ve thought Gillen is a future Mariner. He’s the most polished prep bat left. Gillen might have to move to second base, or to center field, but he’s going to stick up the middle. The uncertainty of Slade Caldwell staying in center field is the driving decision here.
24) Braves: Braylon Doughty RHP Chaparral (CA)
If Seaver King had lasted, he would have been the pick. I think they could go college bat regardless. Since I posted my “too early” mock with Kaelen Culpepper, industry opinions seem to have changed. Doughty fits the profile of the arms they have targeted recently.
25) Padres: Kellon Lindsey SS Hardee (FL)
The Padres are headed for another prep. This was between Lindsey and Kash Mayfield. The loud tools and projectability of Lindsey is reminiscent of what the Padres lost when they traded explosive athlete Dillon Head in the Luis Arraez trade. There are tools to dream on and if someone will start dreaming, it’s the Padres.
26) Yankees: Jurrangelo Cijntje RHP Mississippi State
Things appear to get foggy with this pick. Something just clicks when I think about the Yankees taking Cijntje over the remaining college crop. Malcolm Moore received consideration as well as Tommy White. This pick could go a number of ways but here it’s the both-handed pitcher that comes off the board.
27) Phillies: Dakota Jordan OF Mississippi State
College teammates with Cijntje, Jordan goes the pick after him. Realistically, Jordan falls out of the true first round, and maybe even the entire first round. If there is a team that knows how to make the most of this profile, it’s the Phillies and what they have/are accomplishing with Castellanos and Schwarber. The kicker, Jordan is more athletic with good outfield defense.
28) Astros: Slade Caldwell OF Valley View (AZ)
Reports are calling the attention of this pick to prep shortstops. With Gillen, Lindsey and Lewis gone (somewhat surprisingly), I can’t allow other second tier prep shortstops go when Slade Caldwell remains. He may not pack as much punch as Drew Gilbert, but if the Astros liked Gilbert’s profile, I’m sure there is interest in Caldwell, who is going to hit. He’s a gamer.
29) Diamondbacks: Wyatt Sanford SS Independence (TX)
The Diamondbacks like to build up the middle, that may be a driving theme for their three picks before the second round starts. A strong defender at shortstop with a smooth left-handed swing, Sanford is the premium prep position player remaining. Sanford has noticeable projection remaining and already started showing more impact at the plate this spring. If the Astros take Sanford, I’d imagine Caldwell gets at least strong consideration if not being the pick
30) Rangers: Tommy White 3B Louisiana State
I originally had Water Janek slotted here. Frankly, the connections of prep bats are strong. None of the top prep bats are available so I’m left with either a falling college bat, or “reaching” on a prep bat. The struggles of the Rangers could play a role in their draft strategy early. Here they attack a slugger that could rise quickly if he tones down the chase rates. The power will show, and I believe in the athleticism to stick at third base. Regardless, he can play at either corner or DH when necessary. The Rangers stop the fall of Tommy Tanks.
Prospect Promotion Incentive Picks:
31) Diamondbacks: Mike Sirota OF Northeastern (under slot)
Going up the middle again, the Diamondbacks select a wiry outfielder with great instincts. Top of the line plate discipline, a strong arm and plus speed, Sirota seems like a good bet to find some success in pro-ball. Sirota’s 6’3” 188 lb. frame alludes to more impact with added strength. There’s star potential if it all comes together and the Diamondbacks save enough money to float their guy to pick 35.
32) Orioles: Carter Johnson SS Oxford (AL)
I debated making Johnson the Rangers pick, but I just haven’t been hearing his name inside the first round at all. I’m a huge fan of his, there is tons of projection but the lack of twitch and expected impact this spring isn’t helping his case. He appears to be clearly below the four other prep shortstops taken ahead of him. Nonetheless, whether the comps are a future Gunnar Henderson type player, or closer to a Cole Young that has to move off SS, the Orioles are the team to maximize his potential.
Compensation Picks:
33) Twins: Ryan Sloan RHP York Comm (IL)
This is not a circumstance of Sloan falling down the board, but my attempt at predicting something cool. Sloan can touch triple digits and has shown great feel for an advanced changeup and a whiff inducing slider. The Twins have coveted hard throwers of late, taking Charlee Soto in this range just last year. By going under slot with Tyson Lewis at pick 22, they have enough money to float Sloan down the board. Many deals of this kind are organized beforehand (often, at least) so it would be unsurprising to see it happen with some of the prep arms this year.
Competitive Balance Round A:
34) Brewers: Brody Brecht RHP Iowa
This was going to be a college bat, but with Brecht’s slide, the Brewers capitalize on a stuff goldmine. Simple as that. No one will be surprised if the Crew polishes him to stay in the rotation. Could be a steal of the draft with the right org.
35) Diamondbacks: Kash Mayfield LHP
Another deal here. The Diamondbacks saved money with Mike Sirota at pick 31 and get Kash Mayfield here. An easy and athletic operation, Mayfield’s clean delivery and frame offer some projectability for more velocity. Mayfield fills up the zone and posts high spin rates on secondaries while touching 97 on the fastball.
36) Guardians: Griffin Burkholder OF Freedom (VA)
What the Guardians are passing up on Condon or even Caglianone, they can make up for with Burkholder at the 36th pick. Burkholder is as tooled up as it gets. He’s got easy power, a simple setup at the plate, his legs might be his best tool which he uses well in the field, and has enough arm if he needed to move to a corner. The team that takes him will look to improve the hit tool and pitch recognition. Hopefully, the Guardians ability to churn out high contact infielders can help them turn Burkholder into a star.
37) Pirates: Kaelen Culpepper SS Kansas State
Like the Brewers, who are more or less the reason Culpepper fell, this is a pick of opportunity for the Pirates. After taking Chase Burns 9th, they are giving him at least slot value. A prep player may not be in the cards here if they need to go over slot to sign them. Culpepper falls into their lap as they continue strengthening the farm in the middle of the field.
38) Rockies: Ryan Johnson RHP Dallas Baptist (under slot)
The Rockies have the second highest bonus pool this year. If they want to make the most of that and go full slot with Cags at the 3rd pick, look for them to address their next two picks (38 & 42) with under slot deals. Johnson is a big righty that drops down to a lower three-quarters release height. It’s a weird visual and he looks like a future sinker candidate. He throws a big sweeper which is his best pitch. There is also a changeup that hasn’t been used much but shows good shape. It’s a profile that fits the Colorado environment and Johnson could thrive there. Bryce Cunningham would be a pitcher I see them targeting at 42 for arsenal reasons similar to Johnson.
39) Nationals: Ben Hess RHP Alabama
Thankfully, I decided to release my mock the day of the draft, so I had the time to change this final pick in the wake of the Nationals trading Hunter Harvey to the Royals for Cayden Wallace and the Royals Competitive Balance pick which is the 39th selection. Ben Hess worked his way back from injury this year. He threw 95+ pitches five times in 2024, three of them were his last three starts of the season. In those three games, he threw 20 innings, faced 84 batters, struck out 27 (32.14%) and walked 6 (7.14%). He’s a big bodied righty that gets up to 98, has a hammer curve, feel for a changeup and a slider that is his fourth best pitch. He seems right up the Nationals alley based on their history of going after big power arms in the past. The improved control down the stretch could be for real. They might get to save some money along the way.