No Dowd About It's Playoff Predictions
Here are your receipts, good readers
We memorialized our MLB Award predictions last week, so here are our picks for Division, Wild Card, and World Series winners. We’ve summarized our thoughts here, but for the full discussion, please listen in the link below:
Kevin
AL
East: Orioles
Central: Royals
West: Mariners
WC1: Yankees
WC2: Astros
WC3: Rays
I’ll address the two bombshells in here:
Our defending World Series champs, the Texas Rangers, don’t make the playoffs. Last year, the top three in the division was separated by 2 games. Texas is missing a lion’s share of its rotation for a significant stretch to start the season, and Seattle and Houston are too good to not capitalize on that.
The Royals, who went 56 - 106 last year, make the playoffs. A completely revamped rotation headlined by a full year of Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha, and Seth Lugo will right the ship after a year of Jordan Lyles and Brady Singer leading the team in innings. Don’t underestimate the influence of Vinny Pasquantino and a slightly luckier MJ Melendez in this lineup that has Bobby Witt Jr. as its lynchpin.
NL
East: Braves
Central: Reds
West: Dodgers
WC1: Diamondbacks
WC2: Mets
WC3: Giants
Am I overly optimistic on the Mets? I don’t think so. The lineup will be good, especially with the addition of JD Martinez. The rotation and bullpen all had sneaky adds that I personally think will go a long way. I also have three teams coming out of the West, with the Giants making the cut after having the 2nd best off-season. Finally, the Reds win the Central on the backs of their deep youth movement. Even with Noelvi Marte suspended and Matt McClain shelved, they still have a pretty good infield. The only thing I don’t like about their pitching is the park they play in.
World Series: Dodgers over Yankees
In a series that the MLB marketing team dreams of, the Dodgers finally win their first non-Mickey Mouse World Series in the David Roberts era. All kidding aside, the only sure thing I needed to account for is a Wild Card team pushing all the way to the Fall Classic, and the Yankees are finally bolstered up around Judge to make that push.
Will M
AL
East: Orioles
Central: Twins
West: Astros
WC 1: Rangers
WC 2: Yankees
WC 3: Rays
Death and Taxes. Opening day is the best day of the year. Integrating analytics into processes helps teams outperform projections. Nothing is certain in life… but some things are pretty damn close. These things include:
The Orioles continue to outperform projections given a young core who is only getting better. Reinforcements in the wing… this is the year where their pitching development joins their hitting development as feared around the league. Last year Yennier Cano, Kyle Bradish, and others outperformed. GRod put the league on notice. This year, keep your eyes on Cole Irvin, Dean Kremer, and others to surprise.
The Twins walk away with a bad central. I mean look at the other teams. Now look back at the Twins. They are not the same. In all of baseball, the Twins stand out as a team that has consistently developed hitters in-house. Their squad is consistently in the top of the league in barreling the ball and now they have a nice problem – too much depth (especially in the OF). Excited to watch Pablo Lopez make a dark horse Cy Young case.
The Astros gonna Astro. The Rangers don’t have enough starters to start the year, Mariners are only aiming to win 54% of their games… let’s not overthink this.
As for the wild card…
Am I too high on the Yankees? They’re the team that could fall hardest here due to injuries and/or questions in all five starter spots. To me this is a win-win season: make the playoffs because the starters showed up and Judge stayed healthy… or Cashman is gone. Please spare me the 87-75 just missed and Cashman comes back to NY reality / hellscape.
The Rays depth and lack of stars does just enough to keep them in it until their pitching comes back and thrives in the second half… which sounds remarkably like this next sentence.
The Rangers lineup does just enough to keep them in it until their pitching comes back and thrives in the second half. Once their pitching gets healthy… watch out for both of these teams.
NL
East: Braves
Central: Reds
West: Dodgers
WC 1: Phillies
WC 2: Padres
WC 3: Diamondbacks
BREAKING NEWS: The Braves are great. BREAKING NEWS AGAIN: The Dodgers were great and then spent a billion dollars improving their team. Shocker, they both should win their respective divisions. This is the year the Reds finally take the step (though I probably should have taken the Cubbies in the Central… I am scared of their lack of quality innings in the rotation, however).
As for the wild card…
The Phillies are good enough but got older and did nothing to get better this offseason. The question marks (Castellanos, lack of a farm system, T Walker…) outweigh their year over year improvements, but they still have enough to win a WC.
The Padres regress to the mean and remind us that they should have made the playoffs last year. Tatis has a top 5 MVP finish (not bold, I know).
The Diamondbacks just squeak by the Giants because my guy Monty continues to outperform his average stuff+.
World Series: Rangers over Braves
The Rangers lineup is unparalleled. The quality of their arms if all are healthy is on another level. DeGrom wins his second ring, tying the Mets as a franchise. Only question is who they trade for Will Smith to keep his streak alive.
Will H
AL
East: Rays
Central: Twins
West: Astros
WC1: Orioles
WC2: Rangers
WC3: Mariners
Stats and analytics only go so far, to understand the Rays is to understand the supernatural and the spiritual. There is no rationale, there is only faith, and I have faith in the Rays devil magic. The Orioles will still be terrific, but they have a young core that needs at-bats and I believe they will (rightfully) trade some Ws for positive long-term development. Multiple teams in the Central made competitive strides this offseason, but the Twinkies pitching and track record will be too much to overcome. I will pick Houston until they prove us wrong, but if the Rangers’ pitching gets healthy at the right time and Wyatt Langford is every bit the messiah I think he is, this might be the year the Astros fall. The Mariners lack some offensive punch, but I think their rotation will sneak them into the playoffs over an old and hurt Yankees team.
NL
East: Braves
Central: Cubs
West: Dodgers
WC1: Phillies
WC2: Padres
WC3: Diamondbacks
Breaking news: The Braves are good. The Phillies have not lost a step but will be outmatched in every facet by my Braves. The Central will potentially have five competitive teams, and while the Cubs are not elite in any area, I believe they provide the best roster top to bottom with what I think is the best rotation in the division. The Brew Crew have Peralta and a bunch of AAAA guys, the Cards rotation is geriatric, the Reds starters are young and hurt, and the Pirates are a combination of all three. I believe in Steele and Imanaga at the top of the rotation with Hendricks, Wicks, and Taillon (when healthy) providing unspectacular but solid work behind them. The Dodgers will not be dethroned, but I do think the Padres were unlucky last year and still tout a strong top of the lineup and an excellent starting staff. The Diamondbacks overachieved in 2023 despite a pedestrian pitching staff, but the rotation only got better in the offseason with Montgomery being a massive addition that confirms my belief that they will be a Wild Card team once again.
World Series: Dodgers over Astros
If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. The Astros’ window is closing soon and they will do everything they need to at the deadline to get another shot at the World Series. Top to bottom this may be one of the weaker Dodgers rosters of the last decade which is a testament to how ridiculously good they have been in this run of contention. I think their single Mickey Mouse World Series in ten straight years of playoff appearances can be chalked up to random variance and the luck will finally be on their side in 2024.
Matt - ~ALL VIBES~
Kidding, but Matt is on the road. Listen to the podcast to hear his picks.