NL West Future Bets for 2025

A Blog by Greg

Welcome to the final chapter of the 2025 MLB Future Bets series. This time we are covering the NL Dodgers, I mean the NL West. While it is understandable that a team of the Dodgers’ caliber is demanding so much coverage and attention (they have more star players on their roster than some entire divisions), the NL West has more to offer than just the team from Los Angeles. The Padres, Diamondbacks, and Giants all have realistic playoff hopes, with the latter two making significant offseason moves to better their respective rosters. In fact, none of the bets that I will be discussing in this article will include the Dodgers or any of their players. If everyone hasn’t already clicked off the article after reading that disclaimer, let's get right into my picks.

Corbin Carroll o21.5 HRs (-110)

Carroll is coming off of a disappointing 2024 campaign in which he only had a .231 AVG, hit 22 HRs, and had 35 SBs. Now, without context, this is not a horrible season by any means. However, all of those numbers dropped from his all-time rookie season in 2023. Last season, Corbin Carroll hit 3 fewer HRs, had 19 fewer SBs, his batting average dropped .054 points, and his OPS+ dropped from 133 to a barely above average 107 when compared to his 2023 stats. While some may be worried about this significant decline, I am confident in Carrolls ability to bounce back in 2025. In my opinion, it was a lethal combination of a “sophomore slump” and a “NL Pennant hangover” that caused Carroll to struggle in 2024. While those colloquial clichés are often overused to explain a player’s decline, I think that they are the perfect explanation for Carroll’s bizarre 2024 season. The biggest number that I believe will see a jump this year is his power numbers. Even with his “poor” performance in 2024, Carroll still hit over the given 2025 line of 21.5 HRs. I am certainly placing a wager on Carroll to hit over 21.5 home runs in 2025.

Padres not to make the playoffs (+120)

The Padres had a… fascinating offseason in which they made no major moves. While the rest of the NL West teams made huge deals this winter (the Diamondbacks acquired Corbin Burnes, the Giants signed both Willy Adames and Justin Verlander, and the Dodgers signed Roki Sasaki), the only news coming from the Padres was trade rumors regarding their best players as well as quotes from disgruntled stars in the Padres’ clubhouse. That is not a good sign for any contending baseball team. Pitchers Michael King and Dylan Cease have been involved in a multitude of trade reports along with infielder Luis Arraez. Most concerningly, Manny Machado came out saying that he was “disappointed” with the front office’s lack of acquisitions this offseason. It’s really hard to disagree with Machado’s sentiment here. The Padres roster is clearly structured to “win now”; however, the front office is seemingly unwilling to acquire more talent to set themselves apart from the rest of that division. For those reasons, I will be fading San Diego this season and betting on them to not make the playoffs at +120.

Fernando Tatis Jr. u30.5 HRs (-110)

My displeasure with the Padres above was not enough; now I have to go after their best player. In the two seasons since missing the entirety of 2022 due to injuries and a PED suspension, Tatis has yet to return to his 2021 form. The season before his suspension, he hit a league-leading 42 HRs in only 130 games. However, in his last two seasons, he has only hit 46 HRs in over 240 games. Additionally, Tatis’ other batting statistics have dropped significantly since his incredible 2021 campaign. For context, Tatis slashed .282/.364/.611 in 2021, but in 2023-2024 he slashed an average of .265/.329/.467 while his OPS+ dropped 48 points to 118. Similarly to my thoughts on Corbin Carroll, I do think that the 26-year-old Tatis will bounce back and be a productive player for the Padres eventually; however, I simply believe he has neither the power nor the ability to stay healthy enough to hit over 30 HRs this season. Tatis will most likely bounce back (slightly), but I will be fading Tatis and betting him to hit less than 31 HRs at -110.

Thanks for reading, and stay tuned for the next blog covering the NL East! You can also follow me and the rest of the TheSkippersView team on X @GRMBets.