Nick's Most Unpopular Takes for the 2025 MLB Season
Apologies in Advance.
Tarik Skubal Will be Human.
This is a take I didn’t expect to have this year. Any of you who follow me may be scratching your head at this. Skubal was one of my AL CY bets and treated me very well last year! But let me elaborate.
Tarik Skubal returned from flexor tendon surgery in late 2023. When he returned, he was as dominant as any pitcher in the league. This was all I needed to see to make him my 2024 American League Cy Young pick.
During the 2024 season, there was talk that the Tigers were going to limit his innings down the stretch. That obviously didn’t happen because of the improbable and magical run that they went on.
Tarik ended up spinning 211 innings in his first full season back (including postseason). I am also going to make the argument that his final five starts were considered high leverage starts (31 innings). That includes his three postseason starts, and his final two of the regular season.
Now, I don’t have the historical statistics to back this up, but here is my reasoning for my take that he’ll be human in 2025:
Returning from injury, throwing 211 innings, and pitching halfway into October does not encourage me for his follow-up season’s production.
This isn’t me saying that Skubal will get hurt. I just think that the sudden wear and stress could catch up to him, and he will be less dominant. Two of the most recent pitchers that fit this bill (and are not Skubal caliber pitchers) are Jordan Montgomery (2023 into 2024) and Nathan Eovaldi (2018 into 2019). Montgomery’s is a bit different since he signed so late in the winter, but I think it is comparable. Baseball is cruel, and unpredictable, staying at the top of the game in back to back years is difficult. Although, if any pitcher could repeat a 2024-type season, it’s Skubal. I am just betting against it. His ADP of 15 on NFC makes him a player I won’t have in any fantasy leagues.
The Rays Pitching Staff Will Be Underwhelming.
The Rays have had the benefit of calling Tropicana Field their home park for years. That is not the case this year. That matters to me, and here is why:
Pitchers “Stuff” at the Trop has had a bump compared to other parks. I’m not exactly sure why, but it has. On top of that, it’s been noted that the batter’s eye there can make it difficult to pick up pitches. I credit the foundation of this take to Chris Towers of CBS. Here is a graphic on tjStuff+ from Thomas Nestico:
I also care about this because the dimensions at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa are the same as those at Yankee Stadium. Now, Yankee Stadium has a Park Factor of just 100, which is average, but an HR Park Factor of 119, and is third in baseball. Yankee Stadium also does not have the same Florida heat and humidity to help the ball carry. I think this will be a legitimate concern for the Rays pitching staff. It also rains almost every day at some point in Tampa. So there will be even more starts cut short and bullpen games for Tampa, despite rearranging their Summer schedule a bit.
The Rays staff is going from a league-average home park, where stuff is played up and a batter’s eye that was difficult for hitters, to what could be a top-five offensive environment this year.
I think it will affect Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, and Ryan Pepiot mostly. Taj was in the 2nd percentile in average Exit Velocity in 2024. Pepiot actually was a favorite of mine last year, and was going to be this year as well. The park change has made me pivot. Pepiot also got hit pretty hard last season and has a poor Ground Ball % (35%, and 10th percentile). Shane Baz was a guy that I stashed in most fantasy leagues last year. He was FILTHY in 2021. When he returned this year, I felt while watching him that he was underwhelming and, even in his good starts, didn’t seem in control. The stats back this up, as he had a 24% chase rate (6th percentile) and a 42% hard-hit rate (21st percentile). I think that the park change will affect these three the most.
Shane McClanahan has been hit with a 150-inning cap this year. I love Shane. I think he’ll be great for those 150 innings, maybe a slow start, easing back into action. But Tampa will have to somehow finagle a cap on him, whether that means shorter starts, a phantom IL stint, or something else. I don’t see this as a Skubal situation where Tampa will be in the playoff race, so I don’t foresee them going against that. If you are a Cy Young Award bettor like myself, keep this information in mind.
The Padres Miss The Playoffs.
Here we go… The Padres have been a team that I have secretly been a fan of, since my Red Sox have stunk, and I really love Fernando Tatis Jr. I was all in on them last year. I bet them to make the playoffs, their wins over, and them to win the National League (so close). This year I am just not feeling it.
The rotation is paper thin. They have Michael King, and Dylan Cease. Then they have 38 year old Yu Darvish, 5.94 xERA Randy Vasquez, and Matt Waldron, who was sent to AAA last year. This team needed Roki Sasaki desperately. Now that his signing is announced, I have clarity of the Padres rotation.
I obviously love the top end of this lineup, but it’s the back end that is concerning for me. Last year going into Spring, people had the same concerns, but then Profar, and Merrill happened! I’d be very surprised if they pay Profar to return, and I’d be just as surprised if he matched his 2024 production. A great 1-5 lineup only gets you so far. You need that back end to at least be serviceable.
There is also a lot of turmoil surrounding the Padres. The lawsuit with the ownership, the swirling rumors of trades to shed salary. All of that trickles down to the clubhouse.
Since this is my '“unpopular” post, I also think that it is not a guarantee that Jackson Merrill will take a step forward in 2025. I don’t have the analysis to back that up, I just think that he is being assumed to be a star again in 2025, when the big leagues are SO difficult. The “Sophomore Slump” is a thing. I love Jackson Merrill, but I am just being cautious this season. For my fantasy crown, his draft price is also pretty expensive and isn’t baking in much room for error (29 on NFC).
The NL Will have:
West: Dodgers, presumably
Central: Cubs?
East: Braves?
Then, for the wildcard, they would have to be better than:
Arizona, New York, and Philadelphia. Because the Dodgers are not losing the division.
For my betting friends, two of my future bets are:
Padres are u89.5 -110 on Bet365, and Padres have no playoffs +175 on BetUS.
The Orioles Miss The Playoffs.
I like the Orioles lineup. What isn’t to like? I do think that they need to get some clarity on who is starting where, and who is in AAA and who is not. Hopefully that is worked out this Spring, whether it be via trade, or play. Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad do not belong in AAA. Fangraphs also has Jackson Holliday in a platoon, which is interesting.
But the pitching is the real problem. Grayson Rodriguez has the pedigree. He could very well become the ace that he was expected to become. But he hasn’t shown the dominance that we saw in the minors, and he was banged up last year. I think it is fair to say that Zach Eflin is a fine MLB pitcher, but nothing more than that. Then we have 41-year-old Charlie Morton, Dean Kremer, and Tomoyuki Sugano (who I would say is a wild card and could be good).
I say pitching, and not just starting pitching, because they also are counting on Felix Bautista to come back from injury and be who he was in 2022 and 2023. That very well could happen, for his sake and Orioles fans, I hope it does. But they don’t have much of a contingency plan aside from that. Last year’s closing situation for Baltimore was very interesting. As a whole, the 2024 pen had a 4.22 ERA (3.66 SIERA which is encouraging).
The pitching could also be affected furthermore, by the corrections to the left field wall at Camden Yards. This won’t be a massive problem, but it isn’t going to help an already weak pitching staff. Here are the new dimensions. It’s nothing to scoff at.
The AL will have:
East: Yankees or Red Sox
Central: Let’s say Royals?
West: Let’s say Astros?
I don’t think they win the East, so they would have to oust: Seattle, Texas and one of the Yankees/ Red Sox. I don’t think that in a 162 game season that their pitching staff will be enough.
If you are mad at me for this take, take it out on Mike Elias and not me. They needed to address this pitching staff. As of January 20th, they have not.
I have Orioles to miss the playoffs at +220 on MGM. I will say, I like the Padres to miss more than the O’s. The AL playoff race will be softer than the NL.
Gerrit Cole is just a guy.
In the Spring of last year, Yankees fans got the WORST news imaginable. “Gerrit Cole will undergo an MRI on his elbow.” It turned out to be not so bad, and Cole let his elbow recover without surgery. He ended up piecing together a respectable 3.41 ERA in 95 innings and pitched well in the playoffs.
Looking under the hood, there isn’t anything egregious about Cole’s 2024 that suggests he’ll be bad in 2025. But PitcherList’s xERA for Cole last year was 3.91. Yes, 3.91 would be an okay ERA. But not for Gerrit Cole.
No, I’m not basing this take on a single xERA stat. Cole hasn’t been getting the whiffs for some time now. He actually won a Cy Young in 2023 with his worst whiff % since he was a Pirate in 2017. So, that isn’t painting the whole picture, either.
My main point, is that Cole is hittable now. To steal Isaac Groffman’s line regarding Corbin Burnes, “He is not an ace anymore.”
Yes, Cole was good in the playoffs, but three of his five starts were against AL Central teams. Let’s stop pretending that those were great lineups. He also allowed 19 Hits and six walks in the three starts vs the Central teams and had just 12 K’s (16.1 IP). To defend Cole, with the lack of Ks, those Central teams were elite at not striking out.
Against the Dodgers, in Game 1, Cole actually pitched really well. Game 5 is a different story, no matter what the “earned run” line tells you.
Cole’s best swing-and-miss pitch, his slider, was only thrown 15% of the time last year. He typically throws this 23% of the time. If an ace doesn’t have his best pitch, is he really an ace?
I think Cole is a great enough pitcher to have a respectable “post-ace” career and figure things out. But as of right now, all of the following metrics are middling: average EV, Chase %, Whiff %, HH%, GB%. His extension has always been middling, so I excluded that. The most significant difference from 2023 was his Chase %. 2023 was 29.9, and 2024 was 27.3. His FB velo also dropped from 96.7 to 95.9.
Gerrit Cole is a Hall of Famer. I’m glad he got a Cy Young in 2023. He deserved it. But if you draft Gerrit Cole as your SP1 in Fantasy, you will disappointed. I would also avoid his season-long prop overs.
Willy Adames Is a Fantasy Bust.
Willy Adames was outstanding last year. Here is his standard statline:
93 R, 32 HR, 112 RBI, 21 SB
But Willy was also playing for a contract. I am a big buyer of the “contract year” narrative. Adames was also playing in the 6th best park for right-handed HRs (111), according to Baseball Savant’s Park Factors. His new home park is 28th (79)… For what it’s worth, park factors still say he would have had 31 HRs last season if every game were played in San Fran. We’ll see…
Adames also has just 50th percentile sprint speed, and stole 21 bags. Prior to 2024, he had never had more than eight swipes… Last year, he was obviously playing with something to prove. We also don’t know if San Fran will give him the green light to steal.
Adames will likely be around a .240 hitter, which in 2025 doesn’t kill you, but he won’t steal, and he won’t hit 30 HRs. I will have zero teams with Adames on them this year. His ADP on NFC is 74.
Honorable Mentions.
The White Sox win at least 50 games.
The Tigers miss the playoffs.
Thank you if you made it to the end!
That concludes my list, and I hope I didn’t make anybody’s blood boil too much. If you are interested in any other betting and fantasy content that I put out, I have a Chalkboard page (nicksMLBpicks) where I post all of my Future bets, Daily MLB bets, Dominican Winter League bets, and Fantasy Rankings. I have posted 33 Futures bets for the 2025 season at the time of writing this. The link to the Chalkboard app is in my X bio (@nicksMLBpicks).