Nick Lodolo: The Anchor Of The Reds 2025 Starting Rotation
Between arms like Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, and Chase Burns, the Reds rotation is deep with star pitching. It’s easy for a pitcher in the middle or back end of the rotation to not receive enough praise, and that’s exactly what’s happening with Nick Lodolo. The TCU product and 27-year-old is in the midst of a breakout season now in 2025.
Lodolo has been very impressive in his 23 starts this season for Cincinnati. In those 129.2 IP:
8-6
3.05 ERA
23.6% K%
4.6% BB%
1.03 WHIP
.224 BAA
3.66 xFIP
81.7% LOB%
When looking at Lodolo’s stuff he possesses a 4-pitch-mix from the left side:
Curveball (29% Usage)
4-Seam Fastball (28% Usage)
Sinker (22% Usage)
Changeup (22% Usage)
His velocity on each pitch is higher than the LHP AVG.
Lodolo’s Velocity vs. LHP AVG
Curve: 82 vs. 79.2
4-Seam: 93.7 vs. 93.1
Sinker: 93.8 vs. 93.1
Change: 87.9 vs. 84.3
When looking at Lodolo’s advanced profile, there’s two metrics he stands out in compared to the rest. Those two are Chase% and BB%. He’s tightened up his control this year, lowering his BB% from 7.5% in 2024, to now 4.6%.
He’s been efficient the last two seasons, posting a 66.5% F-Strike%. The Chase% has also been a massive part of his success. His 30.2% Chase% in 2024 has now gone up to 31.9%. Good enough for the 88th percentile.
This success could be partly attributed to the change in his arm angle. In previous seasons, Lodolo’s arm angle in the past sat at either 19 or 22 degrees. Now in 2025, we’re seeing his arm angle at 15 degrees. Here’s a diagram look at the angle over the years.
Changes like this have allowed him to improve his advanced profile and overall pitch-mix. Besides the 4-Seamer, each of his pitches have improved in Run Value from 2024. Let’s take a deeper look into his pitch-mix.
Lodolo has raised his Changeup usage to 21.5% in 2025, and it’s been effective. His Changeup has a .179 BA and .299 SLG. It has given up the long ball more, but at higher usage, it’s developed 13 SO’s to 5 in all of 2024. Whiff% is also slightly lower in 2025, but PutAway% is higher. Heavily used on RHB.
His Curveball usage has also gone up slightly in 2025. Opponents BAA vs. the Curveball is lower at just .202 while the xSLG sits at .277, and the wOBA at .264. Velocity has been up a touch, along with usage vs. LHB.
The 4-Seamer usage has also gone up a touch, with a BA and SLG elevated compared to last year. The Sinker’s BAA also has been elevated to less usage this year, with an improved SLG.
While Lodolo ranks in the 60th percentile with a 23.6% K%, he expands the zone well getting a large amount of his K’s against RHB up and in, as well as low and in. Against LHB’s, he obtains K's low and away from the zone.
Lodolo’s production has come at a great time for the Reds. They’ve had some poor luck with injuries this year. While Lodolo is battling a blister right now, arms like Rhett Lowder and Hunter Greene have been hurt for quite some time. This has allowed Lodolo to come in and tally the most innings pitched on the Reds staff.
This season, Lodolo leads the Reds pitching staff in the following categories:
Games Started (23)
IP (129.2)
BB/9 (1.67)
GB% (41.8%)
FIP (3.71)
xFIP (3.66)
He’s second in the following categories:
Wins (8)
BABIP (.266)
LOB% (81.7%)
xERA (3.57)
fWAR (2.4)
In those 9 starts, Lodolo allowed more than 2 ER just once. The improvements and reliability the Reds have gotten from Lodolo in 2025 have made him the anchor of their rotation.
All data via @fangraphs & Baseball Savant.