Next Man Up: What The Braves Should Do to Replenish A Depleted Rotation
Atlanta's starting rotation lost Max Fried and Charlie Morton. Where do they go from there?
The Braves and Alex Anthopolous have been quiet… too quiet… so fans have understandably become antsy in anticipation of a move. We do know that AA does not like to make just any move for the sake of making a move, though. He’s calculated, thoughtful, and silent. While not everyone agrees with his approach, one thing everyone can agree on is losing Max Fried and Charlie Morton hurts. Their departure leaves gaping holes in the rotation, which isn’t a simple task to rebuild. So what are the options? Who can they put in place of these former stalwarts to help ease the loss? And what can we reasonably expect from a potential replacement?
What are the Braves Losing?
Charlie Morton spent the last 4 seasons serving a pivotal role in the Braves rotation as an innings eater and leader in the clubhouse. The 41-year-old Morton provided at least 30 starts in all four seasons, along with at least 163 innings each year. He was a reliable source of pitching that the Braves counted on throughout his second tenure in Atlanta. He is 7th in innings pitched (686.1), tied for 8th in games started (124), and 5th in K/9 (10.1) among starters with at least 675 innings pitched since his return to Atlanta in 2021. His 1-year, $15 million deal with the Orioles seems like a lot to pay, but his added value in the clubhouse with their young core of pitchers can prove to be invaluable in the long run.
Max Fried signed an 8-year $218 million contract with the Yankees earlier this offseason. He gave the Braves everything he had in his eight years in Atlanta. He was an ace… OUR ace. I do not blame Alex Anthopolous for not shelling out the same contract that the Yankees did for 31-year-old Max Fried, who has had injury concerns over the course of his career. However, what Max provided most in his tenure in Atlanta was success. Since 2017 (Max’s debut) he has the second lowest ERA (3.07), second highest ERA+ (140), second most complete games (6), and the lowest FIP (3.29) of any left-handed starting pitcher with a minimum of 875 innings pitched. Max was a 2X All-Star, 3X Gold Glove, and Silver Slugger winner. And who could POSSIBLY forget this all-time performance in the 2021 World Series…
Watching it back, it still gets me emotional. Needless to say, the Braves are losing a lot. Not just in terms of performance on the field, but two players who gave it their all every time they stepped foot on the mound. They will be missed but never forgotten.
Internal Options
So now that we know what the Braves are losing, what are they going to do about it? Well, the good thing is they develop pitching very well. Spencer Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach have proven that over their respective tenures in the majors, but who else is there?
Bryce Elder: Atlanta fans have been left with a sour taste in their mouths over the last year and a half about Bryce Elder. Let’s not forget though, in the first half of 2023 he was an All-Star pitcher: 106.1 IP, 80 K’s, 2.97 ERA, .237 BAA, .296 wOBA. The issue has been everything since. Elder is a capable starter who is not going to “wow” anybody with his stuff, but he knows how to pitch. He also has Big League experience, a factor that is lacking with others in this list.
A.J. Smith-Shawver: We all know about the electric fastball that sits 95-96, but it seems AJSS took a small step back last year. He is still only 22 years old and will be for all of the 2025 season. AJ has the potential to be a good MLB starter but needs to develop an above-average secondary pitch to succeed, which is lacking at this point in time. His 4.04 BB/9 and 2.12 HR/9 are significant issues in his game that could be fixed with the addition of another good pitch.
Hurston Waldrep: 2023 1st round pick (24th overall), Hurston Waldrep… this guy is NASTY. He has an electric fastball that can reach mid-upper 90’s with a devastating splitter that looks straight out of a Bugs Bunny cartoon. The problem with Hurston is the command. The Braves development team is one of the best in the MLB and can turn Waldrep into an ace-level pitcher before we know it, but the command is priority #1. He will project out better as an elite-level bullpen arm since he is mainly a two-pitch pitcher at this point, but the Braves have not given up hope that he can become a top-mid rotation starting pitcher in the MLB. His numbers last year with the Atlanta Braves were not pretty (16.71 ERA in 7 IP), but all you have to do is look at his film from his tenure at Florida to see just how nasty this guy is. He is one of my top picks to take a major step forward in 2025.
Drue Hackenberg: From the 2023 1st round pick to the 2023 2nd round pick… Drue Hackenberg has flown through the Braves system while getting better at every stop. He pitched at three levels last season (A+, AA, AAA) and produced a solid stat-line: 7-5, 3.07 ERA, 144 K’s, 129 IP. This includes a game on July 21st, where he went off for 7 IP, 3 H, 1 R, and 16 K’s(!!!). This guy has a five-pitch mix consisting of a 4-seam, cutter, sinker, curveball, and changeup. His command can also be improved on, but is not a big work in progress like Waldrep at this point. Since he made it all the way to AAA last season, the Braves seem to think he is close to MLB-ready and could opt to go with Hackenberg over Waldrep since he seems to be a more polished product. He is my pick to make the biggest jump of any prospect in the Braves system this season.
External Options:
The Braves have done next to nothing in Free Agency this year. The trade market has linked them to several names, but again, nothing has come to fruition. We have already talked about what the Braves can do in-house to combat their rotation issues, but what about outside the organization? Who is even available at this point in the offseason? The following are my 3 most likely options that make the most sense:
Pablo Lopez: With the uncertainty that is surrounding the Twins right now they could be looking to sell off pieces. One of their biggest pieces is Pablo Lopez. Lopez, 28, is coming off a year in which he went 15-10, 4.08 ERA, 185.1 IP, 198 K’s. He has had three straight seasons of 180+ innings and 102+ ERA+. Lopez is a dependable starter who can eat the innings left on the table by Charlie Morton while putting up top of the rotation numbers. Last year was a disappointing season as it was his worst statistical season since 2019 across the board. I think he would be a great trade candidate and a buy-low option for the Braves if it’s a price they feel comfortable with.
Jack Flaherty: If the Braves want to make a big splash via Free Agency, Flaherty may be the best option left. He really found his footing in 2024, posting his best season since 2019 (polar opposites of Pablo Lopez). He went 13-7, 3.17 ERA, 162 IP, 194 K’s. He cut his BB% almost in half, going from 10.2% in 2023 to 5.9% in 2024. His BB/9 went from 4.12 to 2.11 year-over-year. His K% also shot up from 22.8 to 29.9. Simply put, he was awesome. The biggest drawback is a reported back injury that caused the Yankees to pull back on a trade in the summer. Flaherty is only 29 and should be healthy by the start of the season.
Nick Pivetta: Now, if the Braves want to go with a cheaper option, they can pivot towards Nick Pivetta. The guy is a strikeout machine who has a career of 9.96 K/9 but will walk plenty (3.30 career BB/9) and will give up his fair share of home runs (1.53 career HR/9). His GB% has gone down each of the past 3 seasons (38.5 > 36.4 > 33.6), which doesn’t bode well if he is pitching in Truist Park. His Hard Hit% of 39.1% was the lowest since 2019, though, so there is plenty to like when it comes to Nick Pivetta. He is one of the streakiest pitchers I have ever watched, but when he is going well, he looks like an ace. Something else to keep in mind is that Pivetta is tied to the Qualifying Offer which the Braves tend to shy away from. Maybe the Braves pitching staff can bring something out of him to help the good Pivetta break out some more over the bad Pivetta.
Conclusion:
The Braves are running out of time to make a firm decision on what to do about their depleted rotation. With that being said, they have plenty of options. They may even get creative and go another path that none of us see coming, as AA so often does. Remember, this team is only 3 years removed from a World Series title, so they clearly know what they are doing. Spring Training is a little more than a month away, and I have a very good feeling something will happen very soon.
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