New Owners, New Contracts: Extending the Orioles Young Core Part 2

Part 2: Prospect Extensions

Last week I published Part 1 of 2 in my Extending the Orioles Young Core (linked here) piece. This week will feature the three prospects that are yet to make their MLB debuts. The analysis for these prospect extensions will be much shorter than the MLB extension analyses since there is a lot less information for me to go off of. 

If you have not read Part 1 yet, it is linked above for you to check out first. If not, below is the introduction from Part 1, elaborating on my reasoning and criteria for determining these contracts so you are caught up.

With the announced sale of the Baltimore Orioles in the middle of last week, a trade for superstar starting pitcher Corbin Burnes quickly followed. Even Mike Elias said he had been trying to acquire Burnes all winter and was not sure if the sale had anything to do with getting the deal done. With a new ownership group that is committed to winning and even has Orioles legend Cal Ripken Jr. part of it, we are all hoping to see them keep their talent for a long time.

I will provide extensions for the Orioles young core (+ Corbin Burnes) broken up into two parts, major league extensions (3) today and prospect extensions (3) next week. There is not an exact science to predicting these extensions and being on the outside, I do not know who would be taking less money for an extension (a la Colt Keith’s extremely club friendly deal), or a more balanced contract like Jackson Chourio’s with the Brewers (8 Years - $80 million). Both of these deals include club options after the guaranteed years. Keith’s contract has three club options with increasing value, allowing his deal to reach nine years. Chourio has two club options for $25 million each, allowing his deal to reach ten years. Having laid out the format of what recent young extensions look like, I will not be including club options in these deals and they will be base guaranteed years. 

Of these extensions, Corbin Burnes will start in 2025 after this season and the rest will start ahead of the 2024 season. How much money will we see this new ownership spend? Only time will tell, but we’ll see if I can predict the future. 

1) Jackson Holliday SS: 9 Years - $115.47 million ($12.83 mil AAV)

Photo Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

I’d like to say everyone knows who Jackson Holliday is, but just in case anyone does not, here is a quick synopsis. The 19-year-old son of longtime MLB player Matt Holliday just finished his first full season in pro ball after being drafted first overall by the Orioles in 2022. Holliday exploded out of the gates this year and long story short, made it all the way to AAA all while producing well above average offensive numbers.

Holliday is entering his age 20 season knocking on the door of the MLB roster. Projection systems via Fangraphs see Holliday putting up anywhere between a 2.1 to a 3.2 WAR in 2024 as a 20-year-old. Jackson Chourio’s contract will pave a way for a very similar contract layout for Holliday. As I established earlier, I am not including options in these contracts. Holliday’s contract here will exceed Chourio’s in guaranteed years and guaranteed AAV. Chourio nets a $10 million AAV for the first eight years of his contract, but two club options for $25 million each bring the total value to 10 years - $130 million ($13 mil AAV). This could be a little long for Holliday, taking up three free agent years, but it has to make sense for the organization as well. 

There is no point for them to just give him a six-year extension and pay more than they would have to if he went through pre-arbitration and arbitration. This deal could come down a year to eight years allowing Holliday to become a free agent after his age 27 season. In reality it probably doesn’t matter because they would be looking to further extend him after the contract ends.

Holliday raked across four levels in 2023. Naturally, that makes for a small sample size at each level, but he is progressively younger than the average competition as he moves up. His wRC+ slightly lowered as he moved up until taking a good drop between his 154 wRC+ in AA to his 109 wRC+ in AAA. A 19-year-old posting a short stint 109 wRC+ in AAA is crazy and just like everyone else, I expect him to explode out the gates in 2024 to make it up to the show as quickly as he can.

2) Samuel Basallo C/1B: 9 Years - $130 million ($14.44 mil AAV)

Photo Credit: Press Box Online

Samuel Basallo is another 19-year-old and is about six months younger than Holliday. Truthfully, if he got extended next year instead of this year, I’d expect him to get this type of extension. More than Holliday and not just because of inflation. In reality, I do not think they would ever extend Basallo for more than Holliday (barring any crazy club friendly deal) because of what it might say. There is nothing wrong with having confidence in your players, but I think it would raise intrigue across the industry if the Orioles extended their number three prospect for more than the number one prospect in the whole league. I could be over exaggerating, but that would definitely get me thinking. 

Needless to say, I’m very high on Basallo. He is definitely one of my favorite non-Mets prospects. To me, this is the closest thing to a can’t miss prospect. While I cannot see his underlying data, I think he ends the year as the number one prospect so long as he does not graduate. I think it would still be somewhat of a fair assessment for Basallo to get extended for more money as I do think he is the better player. Of course, the positional value comes up, Holliday will be playing up the middle in some form. Even though his glove is not exceptional, playing the premium defensive position is inherently more valuable than first base. I say first base because in this exercise, Adley Rutschman is also extended long term and Basallo will not be catching for the O’s. The bat is just too good for them to trade away (but if they really wanted Pete Alonso, I would definitely be listening *shrug*).

Basallo has tremendous power and it showed out in 2023 hitting 20 long balls in 110 games between A and A+. His plate discipline is going to continue developing and moving to first base would allow him to focus a little more on his plate discipline and offensive development as opposed to as a catcher. After spending over 80 games in A ball, Basallo moved up quickly to AA by the end of the year. In very small stints at both levels, Basallo’s numbers got even better at each stop. He is expected to start the year in AA, and I think a quick promotion could be in order. I am excited to see how he performs in spring training against the other top prospects. 

3) Coby Mayo 3B/1B: 6 Years - $56.5 million ($9.416 mil AAV)

Photo Credit: Patrick Cavey/Orioles Hangout

Mayo lands as the third and final prospect to be extended because huge power. Choosing Mayo also came down to age as well. He is practically three years younger than Heston Kjerstad, and just under two years younger than Colton Cowser. A six-year deal allows the Orioles to have Mayo for all of arbitration, plus one free agent year. He will have completed his age 27 season at the conclusion of the extension. Power like Mayo’s is not easy to come by and he will be a staple in this lineup for a long time. It is pretty easy to justify this contract based on the performance. I cannot justify however, giving Mayo a larger contract than Chourio, Basallo raises some of the same defensive questions as Mayo, but Basallo is over 2.5 years younger than Mayo. Mayo compares better to a Colt Keith extension, and he blows that out of the water here, so I do think this is still a great deal.

I did land on a six-year deal here with Mayo because the AAV is lower than Holliday’s and Basallo’s. A seventh year, taking up one free agent year for almost $9.5 million does not seem proper for a player of Mayo’s caliber. He would be making far less than he is worth with any more added deals. For Mayo, this contract bypasses having to deal with arbitration, or any risk associated with performance. For the Orioles, this contract nets them what they believe to be the bat that locks down the cleanup spot in their lineup for the next six years at just under $10 million per season.

Mayo has every bit the power Basallo has and then some. What is even better is that he gets to it easily. Mayo posted 40.5% fly ball rates in both AA and AAA this year while pulling the ball almost 50% of the time. As a righty, the left field wall in Baltimore will be no issue for him. His plate discipline took quite a step forward in 2023, seeing his BB rate jump from 9% to 15% while his K rate lowered slightly. At higher levels, his HR/AB rate improved to 17.38 in 2023 from 20.16 in 2022. His HR/FB rate slightly increased but not so much because he hit a lot more line drives in 2023 as well. He has light tower power, hits a lot of fly balls and line drives, and pulls the ball a lot to tap into said power. That is what we are looking at, and I would bet it works out as long as those numbers stay recognizable.

The next hope is that Mayo could stay at third base, but a move to first base or DH is more likely. In this case, we are going to hope he sticks on the dirt, but either way the bat is the money maker. It is a lot more fun having an infield of Rutschman catching, Basallo at first, Holliday at second, Henderson at shortstop and Mayo at third, than having one of the corner guys become a DH.

Mayo is looking to be a stud and mainly because of how easily he tapped into his power. If the batted ball profile can be maintained some bit as he breaks his way into MLB, he has the chance to really take off. An important thing to note as well, is if Mayo or Basallo make the MLB quickly. There are 187 service days in an MLB season, prospects need to accrue 172 service days to be eligible for the prospect promotion incentive picks that come from winning Rookie of the Year or placing top three in MVP or Cy Young voting before reaching arbitration. Not all three can win ROY but any of them could end up placing top three in MVP voting with a huge second or third season.