For the last few years, the MVP race has been pretty clear-cut by the final few months of the season. Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani have run away with the award in their respective leagues, but this year looks a little different.
With Judge landing on the IL early in the season, the AL MVP will go to someone other than Judge or Ohtani for the first time since José Abreu won the award in 2020. Ohtani, now in the National League, appeared to be taking the award for himself once again through the first half of the season.
He was dominant on the mound, posting an 8-2 record with an outstanding 1.79 ERA and striking out 95 batters across 85.2 innings. At the plate, he was exactly what we have come to expect: a .280 hitter with 22 home runs and a .952 OPS. The race appeared to be his to lose.
Then, the Dodgers announced that Ohtani would be taking a break from pitching due to knee inflammation and biceps soreness. Given their starting-pitching depth, Los Angeles determined that preserving Ohtani’s health and offensive value was more important than rushing him back to the mound.
Since then, a new face has entered the MVP conversation: Pete Crow-Armstrong.
The Cubs’ center fielder has been outstanding all season, but his second half has been nothing short of otherworldly.
Since the All-Star break, PCA is hitting .298 with a 1.025 OPS and 13 home runs. For the season, he has already eclipsed the 30/30 mark and is just two home runs and eight stolen bases away from becoming just the seventh player in MLB history to record a 40/40 season.
Many will argue that, even though Ohtani has not pitched in some time, the value he provided on the mound is enough to complement his offensive production and earn him the MVP. Others will point to PCA’s defense, which could provide just as much, if not more, value.
Crow-Armstrong is one of the best defenders in baseball, playing a premium position in center field, and his numbers back it up: 12 Outs Above Average, 11 Defensive Runs Saved, and 5 Outfield Assists this season. He has been a menace on both sides of the ball.
PCA has been in the spotlight over the last few days. Against the Reds, Crow-Armstrong homered in back-to-back games, including lead-off home runs in each. Across those two games, he went 6-for-11 with five home runs and eight RBIs.
This could be the closest MVP race baseball has seen since Bryce Harper and Juan Soto battled it out in 2021. There is no doubt that this is great for the game, especially with two of the sport’s biggest stars competing from two major markets.
Will Ohtani or PCA wear the crown, or will an unexpected third party emerge to steal the show? Entering the final month of the regular season, every at-bat, stolen base, defensive play, and start—or lack thereof—could sway the opinions of voters. For the first time in long time, there is no runaway favorite. This is a race that should last into game 162.
As long as the voters are human, it’s hard for me to envision a scenario in which a four-time MVP who is having an objectively down season, especially in the power numbers, wins over a guy who is going nuts in practically every aspect of the game. Sure Shohei does something PCA can’t do (pitching), but PCA is playing Gold Glove defense at a premier position, which Shohei can’t do.
I don’t think Shohei wins the MVP even if they are tied in WAR, which isn’t the case at the moment. He will have to be demonstrably better at the end of the year. Which means he has a fair amount of ground to gain.
The V is for Valuable. The Dodgers would still be in 1st without Ohtani.