MLB Wild Card Race
Breaking Down the Wild Card Races with less than Two Months to go in the Regular Season
Now that the trade deadline is over, the stretch run of the MLB regular season is upon us. The competition heats up as teams chase those six Wild Card spots (three per league). For the purpose of this article, I’m only going to analyze the teams that are within 5 games of the final Wild Card spot in each league. I will give a strength, a weakness, and my confidence on a scale of 1-10 of each team securing a Wild Card spot at the season’s end.
As of August 7th, the six division leaders, safe from the Wild Card discussion, are the Blue Jays, Tigers, and Astros in the American League and the Brewers, Dodgers, and Phillies for the National League.
American League
Boston Red Sox (64-52) +2.5 G - First Wild Card Spot
The Red Sox are 8-2 in their last 10 and 11-7 since the All-Star Break (3rd best in the AL). After trading away Rafael Devers, the team has started playing more like a team. Roman Anthony is proving to be worth the hype and Trevor Story is in the middle of a career resurgence. Alex Cora is managing to the platoon advantages while Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello are pitching quality starts right and left.
Strength: Lineup depth and versatility
Weakness: Rotation reliability and durability
Confidence Rating: 7/10
Seattle Mariners (63-53) +1.5 G - Second Wild Card Spot
The Mariners have won 4 in a row and are 12-8 since the All-Star Break (4th best in the AL). Their starting rotation is turning back into form as George Kirby and Logan Gilbert regain their health. The lineup is deep for the first time in awhile after acquiring Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez at the deadline. Julio Rodriguez is having his typical resurgent second half and Cal Raleigh is setting offensive records for a catcher. Not to mention a top 5 closer and really elite set up options in the bullpen. This team is poised for a deep postseason run.
Strength: Rotation depth
Weakness: Lack of postseason experience
Confidence Rating: 10/10*
*I think Seattle has a strong chance to win the division.
New York Yankees (61-54) - Third Wild Card Spot
The Yankees has struggled lately, losing 6 of their last 10 and going 8-11 since the All-Star Break. Aaron Judge got hurt, Max Fried hasn’t been his ace-like self, and their new bullpen pieces have been inconsistent to start their tenure with New York. Mental errors have also cost them a game here and there. Whether it’s living up to the New York media hype or expectations after a second place finish last season, the Yankees are showing where their holes lie. A lot of weight rests of how Aaron Judge produces offensively. If they can’t get consistent quality outings from Fried and Carlos Rodon, their rotation and bullpen durability is going to suffer. Can they overcome these shortcomings and make it back into the postseason?
Strength: Star power
Weakness: Aaron Judge or bust
Confidence Rating: 5/10
Cleveland Guardians (59-55) 1.5 GB - First Team Out
The Guardians have won 3 straight and have the best record in the AL since the All-Star Break at 13-6. However, playing mostly lackluster teams in the second half: the A’s, Orioles, Royals, Rockies, Twins, and Mets. The Guardians are known for getting the most out of their lineup, regardless of name value. Their rotation is always solid and backend of the bullpen will continue to lock down games for them. Having said that, I still see this as just a recent hot streak and don’t think the Guardians will be able to keep up this pace.
Strength: Jose Ramirez and solid rotation
Weakness: Lacking lineup depth
Confidence Rating: 2/10
Texas Rangers (60-56) 1.5 GB - Second Team Out
The Rangers have flirted with a .500 record all season long but are 12-7 since the All-Star Break (T-3rd best in the MLB). The Rangers offense has surprisingly struggled all season long, but is starting to show signs of life lately. Joc Pederson is back from injury and guys like Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia are returning to form. Their lineup, when playing well, is one of the deepest in the sport and a rotation headlined by Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi will be difficult for any team to beat in a best of 3 postseason series. The question is can the bullpen keep them in close games and can the offense continue to dig themselves out of their early season cold spell.
Strength: Top of rotation and lineup depth
Weakness: Bullpen stability
Confidence Rating: 6/10
Kansas City Royals (57-58) 4.0 GB - Third Team Out
The Royals, like the Rangers, are another team that has struggled to get above the .500 mark all season but find themselves at 10-8 in the second half of the season so far. Bobby Witt Jr has been great but is not playing at the superstar MVP level he was last season. Injuries to their rotation (Kris Bubic, Michael Lorenzen, Cole Ragans) and production from their outfield has prevented them from going on a real run. Some players have stepped up but is it enough to get them to the postseason?
Strength: Bobby Witt Jr and Salvador Perez
Weakness: Lineup depth and rotation health
Confidence Rating: 1/10
Tampa Bay Rays (57-59) 4.5 GB - Fourth Team Out
The Rays have really struggled in the second half, going 5-12 since the break. Which is interesting given that I think their team got better on paper after the trade deadline. A costly injury to Jonathan Aranda impacted their lineup depth but overall their team shouldn’t be doing as poor as it has been. Junior Caminero is putting together an excellent season for a 22 year old and Yandy Diaz is having a career best year. The rotation has had its struggles lately and hasn’t been able to pitch very deep into games either. This team lacks the big names but so has every other successful Rays team in the past. I’m not sure there’s enough there to overcome their shortcomings this season though.
Strength: Junior Caminero
Weakness: Rotation depth and health
Confidence Rating: 3/10
National League
Chicago Cubs (66-48) +3.5 G - First Wild Card Spot
The Cubs at one point had one of the best records in all of baseball but they’ve gone 9-9 in the second half and given the division lead to the surging Milwaukee Brewers. A tremendous defensive team with lots of power bats in the lineup will help keep them in games. They possess lots of speed on the basepaths that will help to manufacture an extra run or two when in a pinch, as well as decent bullpen depth. Their rotation has some holes though and could be the Achilles heel for the Cubs in a short best of 3 Wild Card series.
Strength: Lineup depth
Weakness: Rotation depth
Confidence Rating: 10/10*
*Similar to Seattle in the AL, I think the Cubs have a strong chance to win the division still
San Diego Padres (64-51) +1.0 G - Second Wild Card Spot
The Padres are 8-2 in their last 10 and 12-7 in the second half (2nd best among NL teams). Their offense was hitting a lull right before the break but has turned it back on since then. Guys like Tatis, Merrill, and Bogaerts are all playing much better lately. Not to mention, the Padres made the most significant moves at the trade deadline. Their lineup is complete now after adding Ryan O’Hearn to mash RHP and Ramon Laureano for his lockdown defense and resurging bat. The Padres already had one of the top bullpens in the MLB and now with Mason Miller, it seems unhittable. A very scary team to face in a best of 3 Wild Card series.
Strength: Lineup and bullpen depth
Weakness: Rotation stability
Confidence Rating: 10/10
New York Mets (63-52) - Third Wild Card Spot
The Mets have hit a wall. They’ve won 1 of their last 9 games played, including being swept by the Guardians. The lineup has really struggled to hit as the rotation has struggled to keep runs off the board. Compounding issues that will lead to a bad stretch of games like this. The star power on this team is tops in the league so a hot streak is coming soon. Not to mention, the deadline acquisitions they made helped solidify an already deep bullpen (Ryan Helsley, Tyler Rogers, Gregory Soto) and lineup (Cedric Mullins). I’m not overly worried about this Mets team.
Strength: Lineup and bullpen depth
Weakness: Rotation durability
Confidence Rating: 8/10
Cincinnati Reds (60-56) - 3.5 GB - First Team Out
The Reds have hovered around .500 all season and are finally starting to trend in the right direction. The young core is playing well and the trades they made at the deadline should strengthen their chances at a postseason run. Elly De La Cruz is a super star and will help carry this team with help from Matt McLain, TJ Friedl, and Noelvi Marte. The rotation is solid but losing Nick Lodolo to a blister could be a bigger issue than first realized. The bullpen depth is worrisome too especially if it has to go toe to toe with some of the aforementioned top bullpens. I am really encouraged with the progress the Reds have made this season but I think the top 3 teams listed (Cubs, Padres, and Mets) have too much going for them to compete with.
Strength: Rotation depth
Weakness: Thump in the lineup
Confidence Rating: 2/10
San Francisco Giants (58-57) - 5.0 GB - Second Team Out
The Giants meet the threshold for this exercise but only due to their strong first half of the season. Since the break, they are 6-12 and traded away key players at the deadline. Their front office was in sell mode therefore I don’t see them making the postseason this year.
Strength: Good pieces to build around for 2026
Weakness: Rotation depth
Confidence Rating: 0/10
Postseason Picture
Here’s how I see the postseason shaping out, seeding aside, given the breakdowns I provided above.
AL: Blue Jays, Tigers, Astros, Red Sox, Mariners, Yankees/Rangers
NL: Brewers, Dodgers, Phillies, Cubs, Padres, Mets
Postseason baseball is a completely different version of the sport. Strategies change, atmospheres intensify, and the stakes climax. It’s the most entertaining playoffs of any sport and I am looking forward to seeing which twelve teams make it to the promised land this season.