MLB Back to the Future (Part 2)
Best Bet for MLB regular season win total
Here it is, the second leg. There will be 1-2 more of these depending on where my feelings land on some final signings. But as the regular season quickly approaches, it’s time to share my final future of the 2024 MLB Season. We have some MLB content coming very soon to our YouTube Channel. You won’t want to miss it. In the meantime, enjoy me doubting the Miami Marlins for a little while.
Miami Marlins Under 78.5 Wins: 4U (-120)
This is my big one, The Holy Grail. I’ve eluded on Twitter a few times I’m out on this team, and the signing of Tim Anderson doesn’t change my feelings. Not to knock the move logistically, it was a solid move, with a small price tag, low risk, and decent return if he resembles anything he’s done in the past. But I’m out on the Fish.
The Marlins in 2023 would finish with an 84-78 record (75-87 Pythagorean W/L), but the makeup of this team will be much different this year. I know what you’re thinking, you’re betting on them to win 6 fewer games than last year? Absolutely I am. Let’s start with a trip down memory lane. Despite winning 84 games, the Marlins have only gone over the 78.5 line twice since 2010 (2010 & 2016). Stringing together good years is something the Marlins have not done since that 2008-2010 stretch, and I’ll bet on them to take a step back.
The Marlins were 33-13 in one-run games (.717 Win %), which is just ridiculous. While there is some skill in bullpens shutting down tight games, the Marlins bullpen was in the bottom 10 of ERA in 2023. Historically, this is always a huge red flag for teams that are preparing to regress, and it’s coming. But let’s take it one step further, the 84-78 Marlins, who were 33-13 in one-run games, scored 666 runs and allowed 723 runs for a -57 run differential. In 2021, the Marlins scored 623 runs, allowed 701 runs (-78 run differential), and were 67-95. 21 runs accounting for 17 wins? Exactly. My. Point.
Let’s dive into the roster if that wasn’t enough.
The low-hanging fruit is obvious: 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcántara is out for the year. While the 4.14 ERA (4.30xERA) was not impressive in 2023, he still ate up 184.2 innings, which you now have to replace. And they haven’t.
Jesús Luzardo will now be the ace, which is not my beef. I love Luzardo. I think he’s a stud. Strung together two really solid years in Miami now, throwing 178.2 innings in 2023, holding a 3.58 ERA (3.96xERA), 10.48 K/9 while cutting down on his BB/9, and a career-high 3.7 WAR. However, there are grumblings of a potential trade, and if Luzardo is shipped at any point this season, this bet is a slam dunk.
The rest of the rotation starts to get dicey for both quality, and now role without Sandy. I assume the 2-3 will be Eury Pérez and Braxton Garrett. I’m not sure of the order yet. While I think both are serviceable, having to bump them up in the rotation is not what you want.
Braxton Garrett? Serviceable arm. Career high in innings pitched (159.2), WAR (2.9) in 2023, held a 3.66 ERA (4.55xERA) with a 8.79 K/9. Solid year, but as a #2, I’d be concerned. I like Eury Pérez. I think he has a great upside; he’s only 20 years old, but the load he’s going to have to bear in 2024 is no joke. Coming off his first MLB campaign with 91 innings, 10.64 K/9, 3.05 BB/9, 1.4 WAR, 3.15 ERA (3.66xERA), and he can’t be on a limit this year because, well, the Marlins need him.
In the 4-spot, we’ll have MLB The Show Legend, Edward Cabrera. I can tell you anything about him, and at the end of the day, I really have no idea what they’re going to get out of the 25-year-old. He made his 3rd MLB stint in 2023, again with career-high numbers in innings, Ks, and WAR. 99.2IP, 10.66 K/9, 5.96BB/9 (yes, that is real), and held a 4.24 ERA (3.79xERA).
Rounding out the rotation is Trevor Rogers, who missed most of last year with an injury. The big concern is that he’s going to have a lot of innings to take in 2024. We may see somebody like Max Meyer up and down this year, who I think has a high ceiling, but you can’t bank on a breakout to have a competing season.
The bullpen? Not great. A lot of decent arms in guys like AJ Puk, George Soriano, Tanner Scott, and Huascar Brazobán. But they are without David Robertson and Steven Okert in 2024. Not huge names, but serviceable arms for a bullpen that was in the bottom 10 in ERA in 2023. Having to bear Sandy’s innings is where I take issue. These guys I don’t believe, can hold up all season with the extra workload and will struggle in close games.
Let’s get into the lineup. It’s solid. They lost Yuli Gurriel, who admittedly isn’t a big loss, and Jorge Soler, coming off the second-best year of his career.
They will return Luis Arráez coming off a batting title and nearly career-best year, Jazz Chisholm, who has a high ceiling, but I see him as overrated at this point in his career. Josh Bell for a full season after coming over from Cleveland, Bryan De La Cruz, who played 153 games with only a 0.2 WAR, which is the bottom 3 in MLB of players who played over 153 games in 2023 despite hitting 19 HR and 60 RBI. Rounding out is Jesús Sánchez, coming off a career-high in games played, RBI, and WAR.
Jake Burger, who’s coming off a career year (noticing a common theme yet?), with 34 HR, 2.5 WAR, and 80 RBI with a 27.6 K%. Tim Anderson's recent singing intrigues me. While I don’t think he’s the 4.6 WAR player we saw in 2021, he could be serviceable. Hell, he can’t be worse than last year, right?
There is one thing I can’t write this column and not talk about… the defense. It is awful. Debatably the worst in the MLB across the board. Luis Arráez is great with the bat, ranked 151/154 in OAA of all qualified infielders with -13, and just 4 DRS. Jake Burger? Crushes baseballs but ranked 145/154 in OAA of all qualified infielders with -9. Josh Bell, a similar issue, 26/37 1B in OAA with -4.
The outfield doesn’t get much better. Bryan De La Cruz was 112/123 in OAA for qualified outfielders with -7, and Jesús Sánchez falls in the bottom half of the list with just 1 OAA. This team is really bad defensively, and Tim Anderson has never been all that great defensively, so he doesn’t even give them that at SS. I don’t see a lot of these numbers improving all that much.
Rounding out the lineup is Nick Fortes, Jon Berti, Vidal Bruján, and Avisaíl García. This is not an 80-win lineup. There is a world where we conceivably see Luzardo traded, Tim Anderson DFAd and the Marlins struggle to break 70 wins. I truly don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility.
If the theme hasn’t hit you like a brick over the head, this team way overperformed in 2023. If that many players coming off career years wasn’t enough to point to regression, and the one-run wins don’t raise red flags, or just the historically bad relationship the Marlins and winning has had over the years. With that, I’ll reiterate my bet one more time: Marlins Under 78.5 Wins in 2024.
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