It’s that time of year again. Snow melts, birds chirp, and winter turns to spring. Baseball is back, and I couldn’t be happier. You all know I’ve been covering the college game extensively so far, but with Spring Training kicking into swing, it’s time for my revenge. Last year did not go as expected. I nuked the Guardians, and while my handicap on their pitching was spot on, they didn’t sniff 88 wins.
I’ve changed my strategy a little bit, targeting some middle-of-the-pack teams rather than all teams to get near 90 wins. In this column, I again am writing checks that my stubborn brain may or may not cash. I have broken this column up into parts for each future since I wrote far too much for each.
Seattle Mariners Over 87.5 Wins: 2.5U (-105)
Yes, this may come as a surprise after losing this future on the hook last year. But I’m going back to the well. The Mariners finished off 2023 with an 88-74 record (91-71 Pythagorean W/L), holding a +99 run differential. I can’t get enough of this team, even though they play in a very competitive division (at the top), and they broke my heart last year, I’m all in on the Ms in 2024.
Let’s start with the pitching because, again, this is why this team is so dangerous.
Starting with Luis Castillo and George Kirby, both of which are legitimate Cy Young candidates, it’s a deadly one-two punch. Castillo coming off a 2023 campaign where he totaled 197 IP, 3.34 ERA (3.79xERA), 10.01 K/9, 2.56 BB/9 (career best) and a 3.4 WAR. Kirby, who is one of my favorites for AL Cy Young, found his stride in his second MLB season. Totaling 190.2 IP, 3.35 ERA (3.82xERA), 8.12 K/9, 4.4 WAR and a ridiculous 0.90 BB/9.
Yes, this may come as a surprise after losing this future on the hook last year. But I’m going back to the well. The Mariners finished off 2023 with an 88-74 record (91-71 Pythagorean W/L), holding a +99 run differential. I can’t get enough of this team, even though they play in a very competitive division (at the top), and they broke my heart last year, I’m all in on the Ms in 2024.
Let’s start with the pitching because, again, this is why this team is so dangerous. Starting with Luis Castillo and George Kirby, both of which are legitimate Cy Young candidates, it’s a deadly one-two punch. Castillo coming off a 2023 campaign where he totaled 197 IP, 3.34 ERA (3.79xERA), 10.01 K/9, 2.56 BB/9 (career best) and a 3.4 WAR. Kirby, who is one of my favorites for AL Cy Young, found his stride in his second MLB season. Totaling 190.2 IP, 3.35 ERA (3.82xERA), 8.12 K/9, 4.4 WAR and a ridiculous 0.90 BB/9.
Rounding out the rotation is Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo. If they really wanted a 6th starter, it would be Emerson Hancock. I think he’ll bounce back and forth from the bullpen. While it seemed like he took a step back last year, Gilbert actually stayed mostly on pace with his career numbers when you lift up the hood. 190 IP, 3.73 ERA (3.69xERA), 8.92 K/9, 1.70 BB/9 with a career-high 3.4 WAR.
Bryce Miller got his first taste of Big League action last year, and while the numbers weren’t amazing, the stuff is. He grades out in the 99th percentile on his fastball spin, despite only throwing 95-97. The heater is his bread and butter, and he blows it by hitters. Showed very solid command and threw to a 4.32 ERA over 130 IP. I anticipate Miller taking a big step forward and as your 4th starter? The rotation is deep.
Bryan Woo also got his MLB introduction in 2023, and while he pitched to a 4.21 ERA, his xERA a 3.48, the control was a bit of a red flag for me on a 3.18 BB/9, he still managed a solid LOB% of 72.8%.
The bullpen last year was absurd, ranking in the Top 5 of the MLB in ERA (3.48), Strikeouts (603), BB (211), HR allowed (60), and in the top 10 of WHIP (1.26). Even without Paul Sewald, this bullpen is one of the best in the League. Between Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash, Gregory Santos, and Gabe Speier, they will have no issues nailing down games all season. Not to mention we will probably see both Bryan Woo and Emerson Hancock eating some bullpen innings as well. This is a 90-win team, I said it last year, and I’ll say it again, I don’t see them missing 90 wins in 2024.
Let’s get into the lineup. To be blunt, some key guys underperformed last year. While the loss of Teoscar Hernández could be considered a big one, he also underperformed last year, and they added pieces that will replace that production.
Potential AL MVP Julio RodrÍguez looks to continue his great career after notching a 5.9 WAR, 32 HR, 103, and 37 SBs, all career highs. Would you believe if I told you he actually hit worse? He struggled early on and found his stride down the stretch, the story of the whole team.
Ty France was disappointing last year, to say the least, having a career-worst year. Only a .5 WAR, 12 HR, and 58 RBI. Nowhere near his career averages, expect a big comeback from the man. We at Overdue Sports are huge Ty France guys. He’s bouncing back in 2024.
Cal Raleigh is one of the best offensive catchers in the game and is a very solid backstop. 30 HR, 75 RBI, and a 4.7 WAR in 2023, another guy primed for a big year.
Rounding out the lineup is Jorge Polanco, JP Crawford, and Dominic Canzone, who will be in his first full season in the MLB. There really are no weak spots outside of Canzone, and it’s on the basis that I can’t fully predict what he will do this year with a full season.
JP Crawford made me eat my words after calling him the weak spot in the lineup last year in this very column. He would tally career-highs in many offensive categories, including his 4.9 WAR. He may take a step back to his career mean, but I think he’s entering his prime. The additions of Mitch Haniger and Mitch Garver are the icing on the cake for this lineup.
Garver was the #2 of the best offensive catching tandem of 2023 in Texas. Bringing World Series experience to a young core is just what they need in Seattle. While Mitch Haniger offers nice power production as a platoon bat, and while he hasn’t played above 65 games, he returns to Seattle in his age-33 season. I anticipate a lot of power production from him this year. I love these additions to an already strong lineup.
Will the Mariners break my heart again? We’ll find out. But as a former College pitcher, I value pitching more than the average bear, and this staff is easily top 5 in the MLB. Well worthy of 88 wins, I anticipate 90. The talent across the board is crazy, and I don’t think it’s an outlandish claim to say they will win the AL West.
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