MLB #1 Overall Picks Are... Mid
Definitely A Mixed Bag
If you listen to “The Skippers View Podcast,” which you should, you would know one of my previous trivia questions was.
“How many MLB #1 Overall picks went on to be Hall of Famers?”
The answer was four over the nearly 60 years of MLB drafts. It's not a terrible percentage, but it's not great.
So, as we approach the upcoming MLB Draft, I figured I would quickly highlight the last 20 first picks. If you are here looking for my thoughts on this year's draft, tough luck. I don’t follow college baseball and probably never will. If you want a breakdown of that, click on the podcast below by Overdue Sports.
2023: Paul Skenes
He will win NL Rookie of The Year and probably blow his elbow out next spring.
Career: 2.3 WAR/ 4 Wins/ 2.06 ERA/ 70 SO/ 197 ERA+
2022: Jackson Holliday
I will not bash Jackson; he is only 20 and was probably brought up too quickly. I will wait to pass judgment, but it would be a bust right now.
Career: -0.5 WAR/ 0 HR/ .059 BA/ -48 OPS+
2021: Henry Davis
Well, at least they hit with Skenes, right? Maybe they will give him one more year, but after that, I think his time in Pittsburgh will be finished.
Career: -1.6 WAR/ 1 HR/ .153 BA/ 46 OPS+
2020: Spencer Torkelson
On the bright side, he is hitting well in Triple-A!
Career: -1.7 WAR/ 43 HR/ .218 BA/ 89 OPS+
2019: Adley Rutschman
Of this list, I think Rutschman will eventually become the fourth player to make it to the HOF. He will need a World Series and a few GG and SS mixed in. The threshold for catchers in the Hall of Fame is much lower. Look at Rick Ferrell. If you look at WAR/162, Rutschman is 2nd overall behind Josh Gibson.
Career: 12.9 WAR/ 48 HR/ .274 BA/ 131 OPS+
2018: Casey Mize
We really have not yet been able to see Mize for a full season in his career. He has only pitched 267 innings from 2020-2024. So, when you look at his stats below, it may be a little over a season’s worth of work. Mize still has a few years to dodge the “bust status.”
Career: 3.7 WAR/ 9 Wins/ 4.28 ERA/ 206 SO/ 100 ERA+
2017: Royce Lewis
He took five years to make it to the majors and has played less than 100 games over 2.5 seasons. When healthy, he is seemingly electric. Sadly, he has not been electric.
Career: 1.0 WAR/ 10 HR/ .276 BA/ 16 RBI
2016: Mickey Moniak
Remember when Moniak was traded from the Phillies to the Angels for Noah Syndergaard? Me either.
Career: -0.7 WAR/ 4 HR/ .195 BA/ 23 RBI
2015: Dansby Swanson
Cubs clearly distracted by his nice hair when giving him. He took two above-average seasons and turned it into $200 million.
Career: 20.3 WAR/ 132 HR/ .251 BA/ 518 RBI/ OPS+ 95
2014: Brady Aiken
Never played in the MLB. #bust
2013: Mark Appel
Barely played in the MLB. #bust
2012: Carlos Correa
If I liked Carlos Correa, I’d be all over his productive 2024 campaign. 3.1 WAR with a 150 OPS+ are some of the best numbers he’s put up, well, ever. Alas, I don’t like him, so I will not say that. Overall, a very successful
2011: Gerrit Cole
2010: Bryce Harper
All jokes aside, with Correa, Cole, and Harper, there is a real chance that three consecutive #1 picks make it to the Hall of Fame. Harper, to me, will be a lock as long as he does not fall off a cliff next year. Voters will have to take the 2020 season into consideration when voting on this generation of players. If that was an entire season, he would likely already be at 1000 RBIs and 350 HRs.
Career: 50.1 WAR/ 326 HR/ .282 AVG/ 947 RBI
2009: Stephen Strasburg
Prayer circle that Skenes does not go the Strasburg route.
Career: 32.3 WAR/ 113 Wins/ 3.24 ERA/ 1723 SO/ 127 ERA+
2008: Tim Beckham
He did not go on to bend it like Beckham.
Career: 3.2 WAR/ 63 HR/ .246 AVG/ 199 RBI
2007: David Price
I’m not saying he stole the 2012 Cy Young from Justin Verlander, but if that vote happened today, voters would not care about Price’s 20 wins.
Career: 40.2 WAR/ 157 Wins/ 3.32 ERA/ 2076 SO/ 123 ERA+
2006: Luke Hochevar
Who?
Career: 3.7 WAR/ 46 Wins/ 4.98 ERA/ 702 SO/ 85 ERA +
2005: Justin Upton
He crashed and burned the second he hit 30 when he signed a nice fat extension with the Angels. He only led the league in a statistic once in his career. Hit by pitches in 2011.
Career: 32.3 WAR/ 325 HR/ .261 BA/ 1003 RBI
2004: Matt Bush
Sounds like a guy who would be on the Cubs. "(He wasn’t)
Career: 1.8 WAR/ 12 Wins/ 3.75 ERA/ 227 SO/ 120 ERA+
2003: Delmon Young
Shocked to see he had such low WAR. My brain was telling me that Delmon Young was one of the better players on this list. Ah, how time can mend so many memories.
Career: 3.2 WAR/ 109 HR/ .283 BA/ 566 RBI
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