Every year, I do a check-in of the MLB’s #1 Overall picks.
This year, I decided to do the last 10 as they are all still active in MLB. I’m also packing my bags to get boots on the ground for the Red Sox at the Mets at 4:10. I will post some photos from the game.
I will give their career stats, a quick summary, and a verdict.
Spoiler: Most of them are busts, and if you have a problem with that, I am sorry.
2025: Eli Willits
He is only 18, so not going to comment on him yet. However, I have stashed him in my dynasty leagues and hope he becomes a 30/30 guy.
2024: Travis Bazzana
Bazzana made his debut this year and has been solid. Over 63 games, he has produced 1.0 bWAR. Works out to about 2.6 across an entire season, which is not bad for a rookie.
Verdict: Australian
Career: 1.0 bWAR/ .242 BA / 7 HR / 28 RBI / 12 SB / .729 OPS
2023: Paul Skenes
I don’t want to say that Skenes has crashed back to earth, but he sure as heck isn't having the same success he had in his first two years. He is currently carrying a 3.58 ERA past the midway point of the year. His FIP is a significantly better 2.98, marking the first time in his career that it has been lower than his actual ERA. Some regression was expected, as his fastball velocity and spin rate have consistently dipped over the last two years.
Verdict: Home Run
Career: 15.6 WAR/ 21 Wins/ 2.36 ERA/ 509 SO/ 182 ERA+
2022: Jackson Holliday
He’s still only 22 years old. That is what Orioles fans are saying.
I agree with that, and I think he got rushed up to the majors two years ago because of his name and being the #1 pick.
Verdict: On The Path To Bust
Career: 1.3 WAR/ 27 HR/ .229 BA/ 93 RBI/ 88 OPS+
2021: Henry Davis
If he weren’t a catcher and seemingly Paul Skenes' buddy, he would be in the minors.
Verdict: Bust
Career: -1.11 WAR/ 22 HR/ .175 BA/ 54 OPS+
2020: Spencer Torkelson
I’ve stashed Torkelson on my dynasty team for years now. I have wanted him to work so badly. Last year, it looked like our dreams might finally be coming true. Then he went back to being a Mendoza Line hitter.
Look, I don’t love WAR. I use it because everyone wants me to. That being said, if you produce only 2.0 bWAR across 5 years, you aren’t getting anything above a BUST.
Verdict: BUST
Career: 2.0 / 96 HR/ .225 BA/ 291 RBI/ 101 OPS+
2019: Adley Rutschman
Adley started his career with a bang in his first three seasons. There were some red flags in the analytics, but he was consistent behind the plate and was healthy. Then those red flags started to manifest, and injuries began to appear as well. His 2025 was a real disappointment, and many fans started calling for Basallo to replace him. He has rebounded in 2026, so let’s see where the season finishes.
Verdict: Not a bust.
Career: 16.5 WAR/ 69 HR/ .255 BA/ 115 OPS+
2018: Casey Mize
Mize had a great 2021, in which he posted 3.4 bWAR. He then disappeared until last year, where he managed a sub-4.00 ERA again. He has looked great in 2026, carrying a 163 ERA+. Keep an eye on him at the trade deadline.
Verdict: Half Bust
Career: 7.3 WAR/ 9 Wins/ 3.98 ERA/ 437 SO/ 106 ERA+
2017: Royce Lewis
Unfortunately, Royce has never been able to stay healthy. At this point, we can only hope for a Mickey Moniak-type resurgence.
Verdict: Bust
Career: 4.5 WAR/ 55 HR/ .248 BA/ 183 RBI/ 105 OPS+
2016: Mickey Moniak
If you go to Mickey’s Baseball Reference page, there are a lot of negative WAR seasons with two exceptions. In 2023, he posted 2.2 bWAR over 85 games, and in 2026, he has posted 0.8 bWAR over 60 games. But for the non-WAR lovers (me), I like to look at his OPS. He has a .824 OPS over 135 games last year. PLENTY of teams would take that. This year, he has a .916 OPS. He won’t walk, he won’t make errors, he won’t make great plays, but he will hit some bombs.
Verdict: Bust
Career: 1.1 WAR/ 71 HR/ .248 BA/ 211 RBI
2015: Dansby Swanson
Dansby’s June was electric; the rest of 2026 has been mid at best.
He still has 2.6 bWAR for the year, and if you look at his Cubs contract, he has produced the “value” that they are paying him. If we are looking at the traditional $8 million per WAR, he more than covers what they have paid him so far. Take that, his 2 Gold Gloves, and his World Series title when judging him.
Verdict: Pleasntly pleased.
Career: 31.0 WAR/ 180 HR/ .248 BA/ 692 RBI/ OPS+ 97